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Case Studies in Industry and Defence

Strategic Planning

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Transcript of Case Studies in Industry and Defence

SOURCE: GODET, MICHEL, CREATING FUTURES, 2006, CH.6
CASE STUDIES IN INDUSTRY & DEFENCE
1) A young metal with uncertain future




3) Elements for Building Scenarios


4)Two Contrasted Strategies
The
Aluminum Industry
Forecasting & Planning Tradition - always necessary
Electricité De France:
The Utility of Future-Thinking
research for the French Defence Ministry, for
multi-arm, multi-projectile
weapon (PAPOP)
ICW 2010:
Looking for a New
political uncertainty & international economy
technological explosion in materials: opportunity??
growing competitive and strategic environment
recycling: a need for pure materials
choice of materials by function
Experts (consultants & material experts):
Identify internal & external variables
asked 5,000 questions on direct realtionships btw variables (strong 3, average2, weak1, potential(P)
structural analysis was applied
Results:
8 variable stand out in influencing aluminum (e.g. competitiveness, price, financial stability of clients, etc.)
group into
"MOST INFLUENTIAL

Variables"(8)
and
MOST DEPENDENT Variables (7)
EMERGING Variables ranked indirect and/or potential
DEMAND was NOT dependent!
2) Approach and Results
Elements of the Past
(Production Context, Strategies, Demand)
Today´s Ambiguous Situation
(New Players, Competitiveness among materials, Price Stability, Financial Stability)
Tomorrow´s Industry
: The risk of separation between MARKETS & MANUFACTURING?
Strategy 1: Aluminum in either
a defensive or an introverted position
Strategy 2:
Aluminum - from Innovation to Offensive
new key players:
new comptetitors on the user market+
new producer/ source states
Demand gains influence!
reaction: strategic alliances
product innovation opens new markets
demand is controlled by supply
market players may cooperate or compete if they can control their production and markets
innovation, technologically and commercially
create new needs!
action: go ahead with innovation
1950-60s: foresee future demand for electricity
1970s: oil crisis: nuclear technologies, searching for alternatives
lately: European framework
latest: "green wave" &sustainable development
A New Organizations: Prospective and Strategy
Since 1988, Strategic Management Process, including 4 stages:
1) exploration of environment & future
2) definition of strategic axes
3) decisionmaking according to strategic orientation
4) evaluation of results & strategies given the objective
first, at decision-maker level, then extended to broarder circle
later, series of future thinking seminars
An Effective Program:
Future-Thinking Philosophy
anticipate in order to decide
first link to the managerial chain
the
Principles of Corporate Strategic Prospective
use of experts make internal researcher focus
reactivity & flexibility for adaptation (opportunities and threats)
connect thinking with action & planning (implementation)
the strategy has to be stable and shared
group learning experience
5
Major
Topics of Interest
1) international pole (EU & world)
2) technological & economic pole
3) general technological pole
4) institutional pole
5) internal managerial pole
Challenges for Year 2010-2025
- EDF´s position in the future (scenarios)
- Institutional Framework & EU for the energy industry
- Social Renewal: lasting alliances with local groups
- Technological Challenges & Sustainable Development
- Strategy & Futures
future planning led to concrete action in real life
morphological study
was applied as a method
1) expert panel a weapons (army´s tech section) to define & design a new weapon (objective)
2) pre-feasibily study to highlight the most promising technologies for NATO´s specifications
3) structural analysis (key variables to affect the future of weapons)- slow
4) other futures tools applied:
strategic futures workshop
structural analysis & MICMAC
(key variables)
morphological study
Multipol
method for multicriteria analysis
Plan of
Influence & Dependence
identified 9 key variables, of which 6 key evaluation criteria (e.g. all weather combat, pinpoint antipersonnel effects, etc.)
LOTS of possibilities (15,552 combinations) of combat weapon types,
50 solutions selected,
weighted by economic & military point of view
Result:
last, pinpoint the main components & technological incompatibilities
4 components:
1) organization of the weapon
2) organization of the projectile
3) nature of projectile
4) aiming capacity
25 selected
ranking:
overall best,
average in one aspect,
excellent only by one criteria
Other Conclusions:
1) interest in a single-arm weapon for mass use
2) ease of use and cost
3) key role of fire-control in all weather combat
4) advantage of a single projectile weapon of less complexity but high performance
RESULT: 21ST CENTURY WEAPON
explosive and kinetic ammunition launcher
LESSONS:
MANY VARIABLES ENRICH THE POSSIBILITIES
RESULTS HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY SELECTED
Individual Combat Weapon
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