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Coming Breakthroughs in Computing
Transcript of Coming Breakthroughs in Computing
What makes an exponential revolution?
Insatiable market demand for
doubling, little demand for
Free Space Optical (FSO) at 160 gigabits (Pisa)
THZ radio link at 3 Gbps, some day 30 Gbps
Time for “Glass Roots” to enable real competition
Fiber now 1.1 Pbits
per second with
calls at once!
Picocell approach offers unlimited bandwidth
Haas: Wireless through LED bulbs
Reardon claims “DIDO” system offers full bandwidth to every device in the room
Low power “personal area networks” coming
Spectrum allocation becoming obsolete
But others want to auction and own it
Network “management” & neutrality
Battles more political than technical
GPUs generating too much heat
Portability requires low power
Contact lens projector the holy grail
Registration on real world difficult
VR sports, gaming & shopping
Augmented/Alternate reality games
User Interface Breakthroughs
Replacement for the keyboard needed
Speech Recognition,, natural language & translate
Siri, Watson still have far to go
Gesture interfaces from 3-D cameras
Displays & touch
All while small & efficient
The ball-n-chain: System Administration
Is the Apple “walled garden” the only answer?
Improve performance in face of complexity
Provide real time operations
Cloud computing and apps
Software development needs better re-use
"The Internet of Things"
Coded Aperture Camera
Challenges in interoperability and competition
Will the market accept one dominant “AOL” site for everything?
The challenge of “too much signal.”
How does privacy survive?
Ease of use vital
Global trends seen in streams:
Twitter analysis predicts movie gross
Critical mass vs. open
Distributed efforts have uphill battle
The Controlled Platform
One site for everything
The Giant Gateway to the Web
(but also Facebook)
One Big Cloud
A Vast, Usually Interoperable Bazaar
Who will win?
Who should win?
People buying online from competitor while in physical store
Retailers pray for location based services
Delivery robots promise anything in 30 minutes
Ubiquitous networking is coming, if we have the political will
Moore's law continues, but software has to catch up
Ubiquitous mobile computing needs new user interfaces
Sensors will be cheap and everywhere
A battle looms between open and controlled models of computing and business
Money and photography in for bit changes
Brad Templeton, Computing Track Chair
Chip-Multiprocessors: “Single-Chip Cloud” Datacenter on a Chip
48 (45 nm)
Chip-Multiprocessors: High Performance Technical Computing
32 cores X 16-wide-vector ≈ 1 TFLOPS peak
2 (32 nm)
8 (32 nm)
Platforms with a
Culture of Innovation
Images courtesy of Cisco
End of rapid scaling of single threaded code
At least it’s still scaling up – 10-15%/year is great
40%/year speedups for parallel software on parallel hardware through 2020
Assuming energy/computation falls 40%/year?!
Great disruptions in status quo bring great opportunities
Moore’s Law Forecast
Automatic parallelization: not any time soon
Legacy code “renovation” is very challenging
Serial assumptions are baked throughout many abstraction layers / programming interfaces
E.g. Windows’ GUI thread “pulls you in”
Prefer to chase new rainbows
New experiences and new scalable features achieved by composition of old with new
Prospects for Parallelization of Legacy Software?
What else can we do with billions of transistors?
Idea: chip-multiprocessors (CMP)
Tile die with 2, 4, … CPU cores – 2X cores/2y
Simpler cores -> even more cores
Finesse power with lower V, lower freq, sleep
Finesse memory wall with memory parallelism
“We can’t think of anything better, so let’s see if programmers can make these things work!”
Towards the Next 100X:
Explicit Parallelism – Multi-Core
[The Manycore Revolution, SciDAC Review, Fall 2009]
Serif's and scattering bars
Speed = Gate (W/L)
New user interfaces
Cheap sensors & Low Energy Computing
Controversies & Misconceptions
Spectrum and Bandwidth are abundant
Will Moore's Law continue?
Will nations stop anonymous money?
Whose model will rule the net?
Is there a true internet of things?
Tools & Resources
The Cathedral and the Bazaar (Eric Raymond)
A dollar bill with a teleporter on it
Global and outside governmental control and some taxation
No central bank to meddle with it or fix it
Sender and recipient are anonymous (or maybe not)
Transactions are irrevocable
Quicker/Slower than many instruments
Easy online payment, theft and loss
A Two Sided Coin
Open, hackable money and contracts
Cheaper, Smaller, Lower Power
1,000 distinct apps