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Oil & Mining Contracts - the Motherlode

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by

Johnny West

on 27 November 2013

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Transcript of Oil & Mining Contracts - the Motherlode


Historically...
Project Levels on Contracts...
1) Right to Know - FAQs based on
model contracts
2) Textual Analysis - Booksprints
3) Financial Modelling -
Running the Numbers
Where to find contracts
Contracts offer a system-level view of the world's oil and mining industries...
Putting Oil & Mining
Contracts in the commons

Climb inside the machine
Understand the industry on its own terms
Analyse the past, predict the future
NOW IS THE TIME

2013 EITI Standard
But times are changing...
38 implementing countries
+- 2,000 CSOs involved
Umbrella initiative.. governments should publish ALL contracts
25 countries in two years...
publishing "encouraged"
62 countries sign up in two years
Extractive Industries Working Group
Top Secret
Grupo Faro (Ecuador):
CSO contract analysis
Propuesto Ciudadano (Peru): map of
concession areas
Only a few states have
full disclosure...
Timor
Peru
Liberia
Kurdish Region of Iraq
Ecuador
Afghanistan
Congo-Brazzaville
But there is a lot of partial
disclosure...
Azerbaijan-BP's Deal of the Century
Ghana-Kosmo
And many countries publish
"model contracts" for companies
Companies publish to raise $$$...
Nigeria
Kenya
Tanzania
And "grey market" channels
Full disclosure: 7 countries
Significant contract information:
Signed contracts +
Grey market contracts +
Model contracts =
70 countries around the world
1) Right to Know FAQ - Mozambique
(May 2013)
Please tell us, Madam Minister...
Why the government claims it cannot publish the contracts when the confidentiality clause suggests it can
If the Petroleum Production Tax mentioned in the contracts is effectively a Royalty?
What limit if any there is to investor recovery of claimed costs?
2) Textual Analysis - OpenOil Booksprint!
10 experts in a room for 5 days
55,000 downloads
French, Spanish, Arabic editions
Follow-up interest in 35 countries
Country-level Booksprint
Interest in: Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Nigeria, South Sudan, Uganda, Liberia
Deep analysis of contracts giving country level context.
Media and civil society: voicing their concerns, responding to their questions
This...
Leads to this...
When will the government see serious revenues? 1 year, 5 years, longer?
$2 billion a year or $6 billion a year?
Is this a good deal? Or so bad it should be renegotiated?
What would happen if...
3) Financial Modelling
and this...
The future: extractives as service industries, business models reverse engineered
What our partners say...
"We have the Turkana Oil block being exploited by various firms world-wide. Would be nice to be accountable" - Kenya
"Model contracts play a huge role" - Russia
"Contracts could ensure sufficent revenue if they are fair. So far we think that contracts are not fair and benefit mostly companies" - Niger
"Contracts provide a better ground for creating competitive tension to the benefit of the host country" - Yemen
"We have a specific model of service contract that raised some problems and doubts because of it's clauses" - Ecuador
Full transcript