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Cost overrun And Project Management Failure in Construction

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Atul Gaikwad

on 5 September 2014

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Transcript of Cost overrun And Project Management Failure in Construction

4.0 Methodology And Data Collection
Methodology
Data collection

5.0 Analysis
Severity Index Analysis
Factor Analysis
Reliability Test - Cronbach Alpha
Kaiser - Meyer - Olkin (KMO) test and Bartlett's Test of Specificity
Multiple Variable Regression
Reduction of Factors in Factor Groups or Clusters
Client Responsible
Contractor Responsible
Consultant Responsible
Client and Consultant Responsible
Contractor and Consultant Responsible
External or Other Factors
6.0 Case Study
Introduction
Profile Of City
Historical Background
City Growth
Need For BRTS
Study Area
Aundh - Ravet BRTS Corridor
Strip Chart
Nashik Phata - Wakad BRTS Corridor
Concluding Remark
1.0 Introduction
Cost overrun
Cost - What is Cost ?
History - Cost overrun over the world
Indian scenario - Pune
Project Management
Definition & objectives
History
Cost overrun and Project Management Failure
Problem Statement
Need For Problem
Objective of the study
Scope of dissertation
Significance
Research Methodology
Limitations
2.0 Literature Review
Introduction
Literature Review
3.0 Statistical Methods
Severity Index
Factor Analysis
Cronbach Alpha
Kaiser - Meyer - Olkin (KMO) test and Bartlett's test of Specificity
Multiple Variable Regression
Contents
Cost overrun And Project Management Failure in Construction Industry
Atul J. Gaikwad
Exam Seat No. 371
Guide - Rahul S. Patil
7.0 Conclusion
Recommendation and Future Study
Findings of Analysis and Conclusion
Recommendations
Future Study

1.0 introduction
2.0 Literature Review
3.0 Statistical Methods
4.0 Methodology and Data Collection
5.0 Analysis
6.0 Case Study
7.0 Conclusion Recommendations and Future study
Introduction
Cost Overrun
Cost is the main factor determining any product or service.
People can be largely influenced by cost.
Similarly for any product or project cost affects the essence of the project.
This is true for all and a developing country like India; Cost shows its true colors.
Cost is a major term used in project management and construction & management studies.
No or very little study have been made on this subject in India and that to on a basis which can be readily understandable to the masses on a local level.

Cost Definition
Cost can be defined as in general economics, as a metric that is totaling up as a result of a process or as a differential for the result of a decision.
Cost is the value of money that has been used up to produce or create something, and hence is not available for use anymore.
In business, the cost may be one of acquisition, in which case the amount of money expended to acquire it is counted as cost.
In this case, money is the input that is gone in order to acquire the thing.
In this study, an attempt is made to understand this cost overrun and failure in project management, factors causing it, their severity and predicting them with the help of mathematical tool here, regression.
Also recommendations have been made to minimize it.

Cost Overrun
Cost overrun is a very frequent phenomenon and is almost associated with nearly all projects not only construction industry.
This trend is more severe in developing countries where these overruns sometimes exceed 100% of the anticipated cost of the project.
In any civil engineering project, cost plays a very vital role.
Many attempts are made to minimize the cost of the project and without compromising benefits.
However, even with many attempts made this cost estimated earlier before the start of the project seldom seems to be stable.
It many times increases, this increase in cost can be also known as cost overruns.
A cost overrun, also known as a cost increase or budget overrun, is an unexpected cost incurred in excess of a budgeted amount.
Cost overrun is common in infrastructure, building, and technology projects.


Cost overrun can be described in multiple ways:

As a percentage of the total expenditure

As a total percentage including and above the original budget

As a percentage of the cost overruns to original budget
Consider an Example
Consider a Road construction project with a construction budget of Rs.1 crore where the actual cost was Rs.1.50 Crore.

The cost overruns constituted 33% of the total expense.
The budget for the road construction project increased to 150%.
The cost overruns exceeded the original budget by 50%.
The final example is the most commonly utilized as it specifically describes the cost overruns exclusively whereas the other two describe the overrun as an aspect of the total expense.
Hence, cost overrun can be simply defined as when the final cost of the project exceeding the original estimate.
History of Cost Overrun
Historically large construction projects have been plagued by cost and schedule overruns.
In too many cases, the final project cost has been higher than the cost estimates prepared and released during initial planning, preliminary engineering, final design, or even at the start of construction.
Over the time span between project initiation concept development and the completion of construction many factors may influence the final project costs.
This time span is normally several years in duration but for the highly complex and technologically challenging projects it can easily exceed 10 years.

Cost Overruned Projects
The Sydney Opera House cost 15 times its budget (Flyvbjerg et al. 2002)

Boston’s Big Dig central artery construction project was 275% over budget.
Most famous the Euro Tunnel or also known as Channel Tunnel between UK and France had an 80% construction cost overrun.

Various projects all around the world have been overruned.
Cost overrun is a major challenge in construction projects.
The Udhampur-Srinagar-Baramulla new line, started in 1995 to connect the Kashmir valley with rest of India at an estimated cost of Rs 2,500 crore, has seen the maximum cost overrun of Rs 17,500 crore.

GMR (Grandhi Mallikarjuna Rao) Infrastructure, Bangalore terminated the contract for the Rs 5,700 crore Kishangarh - Udaipur-Ahmedabad Expressway with NHAI on grounds of “delays in environment clearance.”
The Bangalore metro project, executed by the urban development ministry, sanctioned in 2006 with an estimated cost of Rs 6,395 crore has now increased to Rs 11,609 crore (an increase of Rs 5,214 crore).
Pimpri-Chinchwad Bus Rapid Transit System proposed for bus rapid transit project for the twin city of Pune (Pimpri-Chinchwad) in Maharashtra.
Project Management
Project management is the process and activity of planning, organizing, motivating, and controlling resources, procedures and protocols to achieve specific goals in scientific or daily problems.
A project is a temporary endeavor designed to produce a unique product, service or result with a defined beginning and end, undertaken to meet unique goals and objectives, typically to bring about beneficial change or added value to the society.
The temporary nature of projects stands in contrast with business as usual, which are repetitive, permanent, or semi-permanent functional activities to produce products or services.
In practice, the management of these two systems is often quite different, and as such requires the development of distinct technical skills and management strategies.

History of Project Management
Until 1900, civil engineering projects were generally managed by creative architects, engineers, and master builders themselves, for example Vitruvius (first century BC), Christopher Wren (1632–1723), Thomas Telford (1757–1834) and Isambard Kingdom Brunel (1806–1859).
It was in the 1950s that organizations started to systematically apply project management tools and techniques to complex engineering projects.
Henry Gantt (1861–1919), the father of planning and control techniques
As a discipline, project management developed from several fields of application including civil construction, engineering, and heavy defence activity.
Two forefathers of project management are Henry Gantt, called the father of planning and control techniques, who is famous for his use of the Gantt chart as a project management tool (alternatively Harmonogram first proposed by Karol Adamiecki); and Henri Fayol for his creation of the five management functions that form the foundation of the body of knowledge associated with project and program management.
Both Gantt and Fayol were students of Frederick Winslow Taylor's theories of scientific management.
Taylor’s work is the forerunner to modern project management tools including work breakdown structure (WBS) and resource allocation.
The 1950s marked the beginning of the modern project management era where core engineering fields come together to work as one. Project management became recognized as a distinct discipline arising from the management discipline with engineering model.

Objective of Project Management
The primary objective of project management is to achieve all of the project goals and objectives while honoring the preconceived constraints.
The primary constraints are scope, time, quality and budget.
The secondary and more ambitious objective is to optimize the allocation of necessary inputs and integrate them to meet pre-defined aim.

Traditional Approach
Project Management Failure
Project management failure is failure in the project to achieve the earlier said objectives - primary or secondary objective or both.
Means the project did not complete on time, there was a scope change, quality was not achieved or there was a cost overrun in the project, that the project was completed in the said budget.

Problem Statement
Cost overrun and subsequent Project Management Failure is a major problem.
In this study, this problem, factors causing the same in are studied.
Recommendations to minimize the same.

Need of the Problem
In a developing country like India, cost plays a crucial role, thus a need for through investigation for an increase in cost and reasons behind the same must be studied.
Also very little or no direct impact study has been made in the field of cost overrun in India.
With this, one comes to know the failures induced to the change in the final cost and make amendments for the same.
Objective of the study
This report mainly aims at cost overrun, factors causing cost overrun their nature i.e. who is actually responsible for the same client, contractor or consultant.
Provides certain preventive measures in form of check list so as the decrease this overrun intensity.
The report also infers the project management failure in a project. Accountability for the key players responsible for the same.
Scope of Dissertation Work
The work mainly considers cost as the major factor for project management failure.
• Factors causing cost overrun have found out by thorough literature survey and discussions with key player viz. clients, consultants and contractors.
• These factors are ranked according to the severity ,
• Factors are grouped into factor groups for identifying their properties.
• Multiple regressions is carried out to determine the effect of cost overrun factor on cost overrun.
• Recommendations to minimize cost overrun and project management failure.
Significance
In a developing country like India, cost plays a major role in construction thus a need for through investigation for an increase in cost and reasons behind the same must be studied.
With this one came know the failures induced to the change in the final cost and make amendments in the same. By predicting future cost overrun one can sure benefit.

Research Methodology
The methodology for the study is as follows:

A through literature review done and get expert opinion was also taken to form factors causing cost overrun identified from construction industry in Pune and Mumbai City. In all fifty five (55) such factors were finalized to be made part of the questionnaire survey.

Questionnaire containing two parts Appendix 1 and Appendix 2 was developed. Appendix 1 consisted of personal information of the respondent. Appendix 2 was aimed at obtaining information about causes of cost overrun. Respondent had to give in their severity if occurred in scale from low, medium and high. According to their experience. Respondents were also expected to give in their feedback in form of suggestions /remarks.

A survey was conducted through postal mail and personal interview. About 95 such questionnaire surveys were made of which 68 were received with sufficient information making a response rate of 71.57%.

Respondents were also asked to judge existing cost overrun scenario in local industry as minimum, average and maximum ranges as percentage of estimated cost.

Assessment of the filled survey was made. Others were cast of on basis of insufficient information or non-revival of survey forms.

Limitations
Although the questionnaire seems to be easy however, getting response from it was difficult. One major limitation was to getting with the respondent.
Appendix 1 which was asked to fill was majorly left black. Factors needed to be explained to them giving examples which were simple but time consuming.
Many did not respond at all. In short, data collection can be considered as a limitation upto certain extent.
Literature Review
Avoiding construction claims and disputes requires understanding of the contractual terms, early non adversarial communication, and understanding of the causes of claims.
Investigation was carried for the causes of claims, delays, and cost overruns on 24 projects in Western Canada.
Critical elements in construction contracts, the investigative process also included determining the causes of claims, categories of compensation for claims, and contract clauses quoted in claims.
Cheryl Semple et. al
1994
Used Rank Corelations in simulating Construction Costs
A set of real - life construction cost was used to test the effectiveness of the said methodology.
The purpose was to investigate and assess the implication of using rank corelation insted of Pearson corelation in probabilistic cost modeling.
Ali Touran & Lerdwuthirong
1997
Concentrated the risk of cost overrun from a general contractor's point of view.
To differentiate the total cost overrun of a project from the portion that a contractor bears, the term "contractor's cost overburden" represents the net loss of money that a contractor faces at the end of a construction project.
Even though a contractor's cost overburden is generally less than the total cost overrun of a project, it still creates a significant financial burden to the contractor.
Crucial for contractors to understand their risk of cost overburden in advance and manage it effectively
Burcu Akinci and Martin Fischer
1998
Suggested that the accuracy of an estimate is measured by how well the estimated cost compares to the actual total installed cost.
The accuracy of an early estimate depends on four determinants viz. who was involved in preparing the estimate, how the estimate was prepared and what was known about the project. Computer Software known as Estimate Score Program (ESP) was developed to automate the scoring procedure, assess estimate accuracy and predict contingency based on historical data.
Garold D. Oberlender and Steven M. Trost
2001
Cost overrun investigation involving naval facilities engineering command construction projects.
Analysed to investigate the influence of factors as
Size of the project
The difference between the low bid and government estimate
Type of construction
Level of Competition
Charles T Jahren and Andrew M.Ashe
1990
Used various mathematical models for estimating cost and Schedule.
Multiple simulation Analysis is used as a means of relating the data considered from range estimate and probabilistic scheduling.
Leroy J. Isidore and Edward Back
2001
Proposed a fuzzy binary relation method for predicting potential cost overruns on engineering projects.
The method presents a forecasting method that uses a set of performance indicators to predict future cost and duration not only at completion but also at interim future horizons.
Potential cost overruns and schedule delays are determined using the predicted results and the planned values of costs and durations.
The output of the forecasting method is useful in evaluating the project status at different time horizons and in quantifying the impact of the performance indicators on the profitability of the job
Karla Knight and Aminah Robinson Fayek
2002
Ascertained factors for increase in cost and schedule in engineering projects.
Andrew Shing Tao Chang
2002
A cost overrun investigation involving naval facilities engineering command construction projects.
To investigate the influenceof factors such as
The Size of the project
The Difference between the Low bid and government Estimate
Type of construction
Level of competition
Charles T Jahren and Andrew M.Ashe
1990
Concentrated the risk of cost overrun from a general contractor's point of view.
To differentiate the total cost overrun of a project from the portion that a contractor bears, the term "contractor's cost overburden" represents the net loss of money that a contractor faces at the end of a construction project.
Even though a contractor's cost overburden is generally less than the total cost overrun of a project, it still creates a significant financial burden to the contractor.
As a result, it has become crucial for contractors to understand their risk of cost overburden in advance and manage it effectively.
This requires utilization of a systematic approach to the management of project risks and uncertainties in the cost estimation stage to minimize their effects.
Burcu Akinci and Martin Fischer
1998
Suggested that the accuracy of an estimate is measured by how well the estimated cost compares to the actual total installed cost. The accuracy of an early estimate depends on four determinants viz. who was involved in preparing the estimate, how the estimate was prepared and what was known about the project.
Computer Software known as Estimate Score Program (ESP) was developed.
ESP can be used to ‘‘check’’ the amount of contingency determined by other methods, as well as a method of predicting its own contingency.
2001
Garold D. Oberlender and Steven M. Trost
Suggested that during the planning and execution of construction projects, it often becomes necessary to shorten the duration of the project.
However, one major problem with the typical application of this technique. It does not address the variability inherent in the duration and cost of the project activities.
A new procedure that addresses some of the major shortcomings of least-cost scheduling by accounting for the variability inherent in the duration and cost of the scheduled activities by simultaneously applying range estimating and probabilistic scheduling to the historical data.
2001
Leroy J. Isidore and Edward Back
Proposed a fuzzy binary relation method for predicting potential cost overruns on engineering projects.
As Traditional methods, predicts cost and duration at user-specified interim horizons using factors that have direct links to their work performance. They also do not allow for self-learning forecasting that makes use of the difference between the values previously predicted and the values actually encountered.
2002
Karla Knight and Aminah R. Fayek
Ascertained factors for increase in cost and schedule in engineering projects from Environmental and Engineering design services for roadway construction projects in California.
2002
Andrew Shing Tao Chang
Used various mathematical models for estimating cost and Schedule.
Multiple simulation Analysis is used as a means of relating the data considered from range estimate and probabilistic scheduling.
2002
Leroy J. Isidore and Edward Back
Proposed a probabilistic model for the calculation of project cost contingency by considering the expected number of changes and average cost of change.
The model had assumed Poisson arrival pattern for change orders and independent random variables for various change orders.
The probability of cost overrun for a given contingency level were calculated.
Typical input values to the model were estimated by reviewing several U.S. Army Corps of Engineers project logs, and numerical values of contingency were calculated.
2003
Ali Touran
Investigated the challenging environment of reconstruction projects and describe the development of a predictive model of cost deviation in such high-risk project.
A survey of construction professionals, information was obtained on the reasons behind cost overruns and poor quality from 50 reconstruction projects.
Two techniques were then used to develop models for predicting cost deviation like statistical analysis, and artificial neural networks (ANNs).
2003
Mohamed Attalla and Tarek Hegazy
Examined the time cost relationship by using project scope factors as predicators for 161 construction projects that were completed in various Australian States using multiple regression technique.
The analysis was performed between project duration (i.e., time), project type, procurement method, tender type, gross floor area (GFA), and number of stories.
2005
Peter E. D. Love, Raymond Y.C. Tse and D. J. Edwards
Described a forecasting method for predicting potential cost overruns and schedule delays on construction projects.
2006
J. Li, O. Moselhi and S. Alkass
Suggest cost contingencies have objective of covering probable cost increase above target estimates.
Monte Carlo simulation method is used to predict cost contingency.
2007
Gabriel A. Barraza and Rafael A. Bueno
Marked that changes during the life cycle of a project promote cost overrun due to cost increases, time schedule delays, and benefit shortfalls.
The establishment of cost overrun probability distributions for a number of reference classes requires access to credible data for a sufficient number of projects within the same reference classes for statistically meaningful conclusions to be drawn.
Cost data were available for a total of 161 completed projects. The causes of cost overruns were grouped into several major categories
2008
Jin Kyung Lee
Identified factors causing cost overrun in the constructor sector in Pakistan.
42 factors were short-listed to be made part of the survey questionnaire and the survey was conducted with representatives from local general contracting firms.
2008
Nida Azhar, Rizwan U. Farooqui and Syed M. Ahmed
Evaluated risk factors for cost overrun in Evaluation of Risk Factors Leading to Cost Overrun in delivering of Highway Construction Projects.
It identifies the owner risk variables that contribute to significant cost overrun and then uses factor analysis, expert elicitation, and the nominal group technique to establish groups of importance ranked owner risks.
Stepwise multivariate regression analysis is also used to investigate any correlation of the percentage of cost overrun with risks, together with attributes such as highway project type, indexed cost, geographic location, and project delivery method.
2010
Garry D. Creedy, Matin Skitmore and Johnny K W. Wong
Aimed to risk management by presenting ontology for relating risk-related concepts to cost overrun.
The major idea is that cost overrun depends on causal relations between various risk sources (namely, risk paths) and sources of vulnerability that interfere with these paths.
The ontology is constructed by interaction with Turkish contractors working in international markets and extensive literature review on risk-related concepts.
2011
Gulsah Fidan, Irem Dikmen, A. Murat Tanyer and M. Talat Birgonul
Have presented a method for project cost contingency and updating based on value at risk at certain confidence level during project execution. The method makes use of newly available information as the project progresses, and project daily cost and daily progress are analysed and used as inputs for the quantitative model.
(VaR) Value at Risk method is used.
It’s a statistical measure of the maximum loss that can be expected to occur with a given probability over specified period of time under normal conditions.
2012
Hua Xie, Simaan AbouRizk and Junhau Zou
Adopted a qualitative research approach to obtain important information major attributes that causes cost overrun in building construction project.
Facors are also categorized according to its relation viz. relation with construction party, construction items, environmental and political factors.
2012
Kasimu
Proposed a new framework for organizing transport infrastructure assessments and for monitoring the implementation process.
2012
Tristan Chevroulet, Liana Giorgi and Christian Renauld
Proposed a new framework for organizing transport infrastructure assessments and for monitoring the implementation process.
2012
Tristan Chevroulet, Liana Giorgi and Christian Renauld
2013
Hemanta Dolai
Performed a in depth analysis of the factors causing cost overrun and roles and responsibilities of the key stakeholders in an intent to unfold the industry wide perception of cost performance being majorly bored by contractors performance only.
Survey was carried out and 73 attributes associated to cost performance were identified and responses from stakeholders were received.
Multivariate analysis was carried out to highlight factors on managing cost overrun.
2013
Hemanta Dolai
Performed a in depth analysis of the factors causing cost overrun and roles and responsibilities of the key stakeholders in an intent to unfold the industry wide perception of cost performance being majorly bored by contractors performance only.
Survey was carried out and 73 attributes associated to cost performance were identified and responses from stakeholders were received.
Multivariate analysis was carried out to highlight factors on managing cost overrun.
Statistical Method
Severity Index
It’s defined as the ratio of sum of product of frequency of getting the same score (here, low, medium or high) to the no of total number of responses.
Severity Index is helpful in determining the severity of factors causing cost overrun. It’s used to rank the factors.
Severity Index (S.I) is given by


Where,
r= severity score
Low=1, medium=2, high= 3
F_r= frequency of factors getting score r.
N= total no of respondents
The dissertation report uses following statistical methods to determine cost overrun and project management failuree
Factor Analysis
Cronbach Alpha
Cronbach alpha is a measure of internal consistency, that is, how closely related a set of items are as a group.
It is considered to be a measure of scale reliability.
Technically speaking, Cronbach alpha is not a statistical test - it is a coefficient of reliability (or consistency).
Its given by -


where,
N is equal to the number of items,
c-bar is the average inter-item covariance among the items and
v-bar equals the average variance.

Values refer to as -

α ≥ 0.9 Excellent (High-Stakes testing)
0.7 ≤ α < 0.9 Good (Low-Stakes testing)
0.6 ≤ α < 0.7 Acceptable
0.5 ≤ α < 0.6 Poor
α < 0.5 Unacceptable
Factor Analysis
Kaiser – Meyer –Olkin (KMO) test and the Bartlett’s test of Specificity
The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy is an index used to examine the appropriateness of factor analysis.
High values (between 0.5 and 1.0) indicate factor analysis is appropriate.



Values below 0.5 imply that factor analysis may not be appropriate.
In short, The Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) measure of sampling adequacy is an index used to examine the appropriateness of factor analysis. High values (between 0.5 and 1.0) indicate factor analysis is appropriate.
Values below 0.5 imply that factor analysis may not be appropriate.
The Bartlett’s test compares the observed correlation matrix to the identity matrix. In other words, it checks if there is a certain redundancy between the variables that we can summarize with a few number of factors.
Multiple Variable Regression
In statistics, regression analysis is a statistical process for estimating the relationships among variables.
It includes many techniques for modeling and analyzing several variables, when the focus is on the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables.
More specifically, regression analysis helps one understand how the typical value of the dependent variable (or 'criterion variable') changes when any one of the independent variables is varied, while the other independent variables are held fixed.
Most commonly, regression analysis estimates the conditional expectation of the dependent variable given the independent variables – that is, the average value of the dependent variable when the independent variables are fixed.
In general then, multiple regression procedures will estimate a linear equation of the form:

Y = a + b1*X1 + b2*X2 + ... + bp*Xp

Statistical Methods
The statistical methods calculations explained above cannot be conducted without a computer support.
Thus, computer software was used known as IBM SPSS Statistics (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) ver. 22 and Microsoft EXCEL 2010 was used to simplify the process.
Methodology and Data Collection
Methodology
As mentioned earlier the main objective of the study is to determine cost overrun , factors causing cost overrun , group them for proper understanding and find accountability for the same from three key players viz. clients consultants and contractors.
Focusing on Indian construction projects, mainly in Pune city, this research is therefore intended to examine the root causes behind the poor cost performance from the perspectives of the three key participants and management responsibilities commensurate to the contractual roles of these participants across the entire development process.
Methodology
The research is intended to expand current understanding of cost overrun issues and project management methods through a questionnaire survey.
The questionnaire was designed to capture the current construction industry experiences among clients, consultants, and contractors.
Over 68 construction clients, consultants, and contractors were selected on the basis of their diverse backgrounds, professional experiences, and current participation in the industry including small scale to large scale, new contractors to well settled contractors to relate all opinions from all sectors.
Methodology
Ranking the most critical attributes based on the Severity Index (SI),
Reduce the influencing attributes into factor groups, identifying the latent properties of each factor and their effective management based on factor analysis and opinions from respondents.
Investigate the influencing factors on cost performance based on multivariate regression analysis and
Analyze the management of the influencing factors in relation with the roles and responsibilities of the consultants, contactors, and client in the project.
Methodology
The final questionnaire, consisted of two appendix , Appendix 1 was to relate the respondents personal attributes viz. name, name of his/her organization, position, number of works undertaken etc. special case of internal works done was also considered.
Appendix 2 of 55 key factors (attributes), was considered and distributed to over 95 selected professionals, targeting a good mix of construction contractors, consultants, and clients primarily involved from small scale to large scale construction projects.
The respondents were asked to provide their objective opinions on the severity of all the factors on cost overrun and failure of project management from their experience or one of their past or current projects on severity as low, medium and high.
Data Collection
A total of 95 questionnaire surveys were distributed to clients, contractors and consultants within Pune, and part of Mumbai, comprising residential, commercial, and local personnel doing petty jobs.
It was also seen that respondents had to be given complete information of each and every factors with possible or hypothetical information.
Personal information about respondents experience, number and types of works under taken on-going work etc.
Data Collection
Analysis
Analysis
The report primarily utilizes two separate methods to analyze the respondents’ data to identify the critical attributes among all three categories that affect cost overrun.
The first is a descriptive approach with direct interpretation of the survey results to identify the most severe factor based on the S.I. (Severity Index).
The second method, the factor analysis technique, was used to reduce the factor in the raw dataset into the meaningful groups known as factor cluster.

Severity Index
The S.I. Score is a useful measure of the relative positioning of a particular attribute perceived by the respondents on the raw dataset.
The S.I. for each factor is calculated by summing the weights assigned to it by each respondent in such a way as follows Low=1, medium=2 and high=3.
Factor Analysis
Reliability Test
Factor analysis is appropriate to determine the multi variable relationships and the most critical factors among the entire factors.
Although numerous researchers have adopted factor analysis on similar attributes in various contexts, generic factors that impact cost performance in the contexts of client, consultant, and contractor perceptions and underlying management responsibilities remain unknown.
Thus, in this study, the result from a confirmatory factor analysis establishes a benchmark on the cluster of factors into several critical factors that impart clear understanding of the underlying impacts on cost performance and their effective management across the industry.
Factor Analysis
Reliability Test Cronbach Alpha
Before going to analysis, reliability of data had to be checked for this SPSS function of Reliability Analysis was used.
The reliability of the factors was evaluated using Cronbach alpha (α) values.
The overall Cronbach alpha value was average 0.892, which is above the acceptable limit of 0.700.
Kaiser – Meyer –Olkin (KMO) test and the Bartlett’s test of Specificity
As a step to performing the factor analysis, the adequacy of the survey data was examined by conducting the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO) test and the Bartlett’s test of specificity.
The KMO represents the ratio of the squared correlation between variables to the squared partial correlation between variables. The KMO statistics vary between 0 and 1.
A value close to 1 indicates that patterns of correlations are relatively compact, and consequently factor analysis should yield distinct and reliable factors.
A recommended bare minimum value of KMO for a satisfactory factor analysis is greater than 0.50. (Field 2005).
In this study, of the possible 55 factors were considered and had a KMO value of 0.544.
The Bartlett’s test of sphericity was 2059.836 with an associated probability of 0.0000 (less than 0.001), which satisfies this requirement
Multiple Variable Regression Analysis
Although factor analysis allows one to group the major attributes into meaningful factors, the degree of impacts of these factors in relation to predicting cost overrun remains obscure (Doloi 2009).
In this study, the multiple variable regression technique is applied to investigate the relationship between the factors and the success of achieving cost overrun. In a regression model, the dependent variables are a linear combination of the independent or explanatory variables.
The independent variables are the factors (55 cost overrun factors used during questionnaire survey), which contribute to the cost overruns, and the dependent variable is the resulting cost overrun (Y).
The factors according to their severity values were given scores as low = 1, medium = 2 and high = 3 and were entered in the SPSS software.
Multiple Variable regressions was carried out to get the following equation as follows


Multiple Variable Regression Analysis
The results of final regression model of regression model from the software. The results shows that the parameters estimates of regression coefficient for all factors are significant (sig < 5%) the goodness of fit for model is measured by multiple correlation coefficient which has range +1 to -1.
Here in our study it is 0.774 which is good.
The R^2 coefficient of determination is 0.599 or to round it off as 0.600.
The Significance is also good as its < 0.5. Hence the model can be used.
Coefficients shows the estimated regression coefficient of the model, which is to be used in the multiple variable regression equation mentioned earlier.
Constant coefficient suggests the value of the equation when all the other values are zero, which is not possible.
Negative coefficient suggests that improvement can be made in the respective factor to reduce the cost overrun hence can be omitted during the test for the multiple regression equation.

Reduction of factors in factor groups or clusters
The reason for cost overrun factors to be reduced to smaller meaningful groups is for spotting problems and tracing responsibility.
Factor grouping or factor clusters are made according to interviews with key players during survey.
Factors have been grouped as
1. Client Responsible
2. Contractor Responsible
3. Consultant Responsible
4. Client And Consultant Responsible
5. Contractor And Consultant Responsible
6. External or others Factors Responsible
Client Responsible
These are the factors in which client is mainly responsible.
His decisions mainly hampers the cost of the project, such factors include
Frequent Changes in design (plan) by client during planning with contractor/architect (Factor ID – 2)
Heavy deposit money ( Factor ID – 4)
Inadequate production of raw material in the country so as to import ( Factor ID – 19)
Introduction of consultant ( Factor ID – 23)
Royalties ( Factor ID – 25)
Litigations / court orders ( Factor ID – 31)
Availability of site ( Factor ID – 34)
Insufficient devices available on site for construction viz. electricity, computer, etc.( Factor ID – 37)
Additional work by client ( Factor ID – 41)
Type of tender ( Factor ID – 45)
Payment of work ( Factor ID – 49)
Arbitration( Factor ID – 54)
Contractor Responsible
Mode of Financing (Factor ID – 5)
Cost of Owing & Maintenance of machines (Factor ID –9 )
Cost of Skilled laborers (Factor ID – 12)
Transportation cost (Factor ID – 13)
Raw Material distributors policy(Factor ID – 17)
Coordination between main contractor and sub-contractor (Factor ID–22)
Poor management between management and laborers (Factor ID – 26)
Health of employees ( Factor ID – 27)
Availability of labour camps & other facilities so as to increase morale of employees ( Factor ID – 28)
Stealing / wastage ( Factor ID – 29)
Insufficient / unavailability of skilled laborers ( Factor ID – 35)
Poor Site Management ( Factor ID – 47)
Communication between contractor & distributor (Factor ID – 50)

Consultant Responsible
Disputes on site ( Factor ID – 32)
Various activities on site viz. electrification , plumbing (Factor ID – 33)
Quality of material provided by distributor (non conformance) (Factor ID – 51)
Client and Consultant Responsible
Some factors are such that both client and Consultant both are responsible for causing cost overrun and project management failure
Insufficient time for completion of project ( Factor ID – 1)
Long time between design and time of tendering (Factor ID – 3)
Contract Management (Factor ID – 16)
Wrong method of cost estimation viz. use of old DSR (Factor ID – 24)
Absence of construction cost data (factor ID – 36)
Inadequate site investigation (Factor ID – 42)
Communication between client and contractor/ consultant (Factor ID – 43)
Late submission of contract document / plans drawings (Factor ID – 44)
Inadequate quality of contract document (Factor ID – 46)
Continuous presence /pressure of client / consultant (Factor ID – 48)
Scope change arising viz. client / consultant (Factor ID – 53)
Contractor and Consultant Responsible
Coordination between design and contractor team (Factor ID – 21)
Disputes on site ( Factor ID – 32)
Bad work supervision on site (Factor ID – 52)
External or others Factors Responsible
There are factors for which key players have no or very little control. Such factors are recognized as external or other factors; but can lead to cost overrun and project management failure.
High interest rate ( in case of finance from financial institute)(Factor ID 6)
CIBIL Credits (Factor ID – 7)
Fraudulent practices like corruption & bribery etc. ( Factor ID – 8)
Fluctuations in prices of raw material owing to the project (factor ID – 10)
Unstable cost of manufactured products like sanitary fittings etc. ( Factor ID – 11)
Disturbances from local people ( Factor ID – 14)
Government policies ( Factor ID – 15)
Holidays / local festivals culture etc. ( Factor ID – 18)
Taxes on foreign goods ( Factor ID – 20)
Adverse weather conditions ( Factor ID – 30)
Bureaucracy in Bidding / tendering ( Factor ID – 38)
Lowest bidding procedure ( Factor ID – 39)
Current market ( Factor ID – 40)


Case Study
Case Study
Pimpri-Chinchwad is a major industrial center of the Pune region and also of the entire country.
It has witnessed a high population growth rate of around 100% in the last two decades. The population is estimated to reach about 15.07 lakhs by 2011 from the current level of 12.8 lakhs.
As the city continues to grow, the Pimpri-Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC), which is responsible for provision of infrastructure services, needs to prepare itself for providing quality services to its citizens in all areas of infrastructure, including provision of a reliable public transport system.
Public transport system forms an important part of development projects.
In order to provide effective and efficient transport facilities to the public, the transport authorities were looking at alternative systems which can meet the mobility needs of the people.
Increasingly, such alternative systems like Mass Rapid Transit Systems (MRTS) are being planned in the major cities of the country.
As the MRTS are expensive, it often becomes possible for a municipal body or a state government to cater only to a limited area, thus restricting its access to a limited population.
A cost effective alternative is a Bus-based Rapid Transit System (BRTS), which can cater to the mobility needs of a larger population by covering a larger geographical area in a city.
Recognizing that a BRTS will be a cost effective mode of transport to the public. Thus the BRTS project was implemented in the city.

Need For BRTS
Pimpri Chinchwad is one of the most vibrant industrial and urban settlements in Maharashtra.
Its developed industrial sector, proximity to Pune and the growing IT sector draws a large group of people and businesses to settle in the city, temporarily or permanently.
This creates a growing demand for urban infrastructure, especially for urban transport infrastructure and public transport.
Pimpri Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC) has undertaken an exercise of identifying the service need for urban transport and to satisfy the identified needs through a well-designed and efficient network of Bus based Rapid Transit System (BRTS).
As part of this exercise, PCMC had profiled the current transportation network and patterns in the city and has projected them for the future.
Based on these, a Compressive Mobility Plan had been prepared, identifying the need for Urban Transport solutions along various corridors of the city.
A Bus – based Rapid Transit System (BRTS) had been chosen as the solution to the public transport service needs of PCMC.
To provide better public transport facilities to commuters through a BRT system; to improve service levels of road infrastructure in the city; to address requirements of next 30 years for proposed BRTS PCMC wants to take up following routes for immediate implementation were
Study Area
Here in this study of the four corridors in the city main study is done on the Aundh – Ravet and Nashik Phata – Wakad corridors
Aundh Ravet BRT corridor
The Aundh Ravet corridor is one of the most important corridors of the entire BRTS corridors in Pimpri Chinchwad as it connects Pune to the Express Way and thus connecting Pune and Mumbai.
There are two major flyover across this corridor namely Kalewadi Phata corridor and Dange Chowk Flyover; however the earlier was constructed by PCNTDA (Pimpri Chinchwad New Township Development Authority).
The municipal corporation has spent Rs 21.50 crore for the Dange Chowk flyover, its construction started on 3rd December 2011 and it opened to public on 3rd January 2014.
This bridge eases the traffic congestion that is being caused by a large number of vehicles moving towards Rajiv Gandhi Info Tech Park in Hinjewadi.
Many factors have caused this corridor to face cost overrun.
This corridor was supposed to be effective from April 2014, it can be seen that the corridor isn’t yet finished. Kalewadi Phata flyover had an estimate cost of Rs. 18.92 crore.
The work order of the flyovers was issued in October 2011 and the PCNTDA extended the contract period for the work twice in the past two years.
Many factors were responsible for such delay.
Aundh Ravet BRT Corridor Delay Reasons
Following factors were detected for the delay and thus cost overrun of Aundh – Ravet BRTS Corridor

• Land acquisition from MoD (Ministry of Defense)
As per earlier study factor ID 34 and 31, Availability of site and litigations / court orders, as there was much delays from the MoD to hand over area near Sangvi, Rashak Chowk and also near Jagtap Dairy Chowk for the improvement and widening of the Aundh –Ravet road, it has led to delay and thus cost overrun

• Coordination and communication.
The Kalewadi and Dange Chowk fly over were both under different jurisdiction the Kalewadi Phata flyover was under the PCNTDA while the Dange Chowk was under PCMC. Lack of proper coordination and communication lead to this delay. As already said lack of proper communication can also cause overrun.

• Design testing
The Dange Chowk flyover was tested for its load carrying capacity using Beam Load test
This was also a reason that the flyover delayed to gets the final green signal and also testing fees were also to be paid by the client.

• Government Policies
The construction work of the Dange Chowk and Kalewadi Phata flyover was all completed but it wasn’t opened for public use as official inauguration from state officials was postponed this led to delay and thus real time data for the performance of the bridge was also delay along with its defect liability period.

Nashik Phata to Wakad BRT corridor
The Nashik Phata to Wakad BRT is the most applaud able corridor of all the BRT corridor as it’s the only corridor which connect two widely separated parts of the city namely Bhosari and Wakad which earlier takes around 45 -50 minutes to reach one end to the other considering moderate traffic.
Once completed this time can fall up 20-25 minutes having the same conditions as earlier.
The most significant of this corridor is the Nashik Phata Flyover now known as the Bharat Ratna J R D Tata flyover.
This flyover is the only one in the city to cover the 3R’s namely, river, rail and road. Another important feature is that it’s the only double decker flyover in the city.
Aundh Ravet BRT Corridor Concluding Remark
Till September 2013 this delays and project management failure has led to a cost overrun of approximately Rs.18.00 crore for civil works only.
Nashik Phata to Wakad BRTS Corridor Delay Reasons
Following factors were detected for the delay and thus cost overrun of Nashik Phata to Wakad BRTS Corridor :

• Land acquisition
Land acquisition was no new for this corridor also. For the construction of Nashik Phata flyover availability of site was a major cause of delay for the completion of corridor, NOC from railway department was also an obstacle. As compared to Aundh – Ravet corridor, this corridor had to to be constructed from as scratch were as most part of the earlier has widening and improving the road. Land acquisition is still a major hindrance since there are pending courts / indemption orders for the land near Jagtap Dairy Chowk. This has led to the delay of this corridor.

• Changes in the design
There have been many changes in this corridor for the design of road section and design of storm water covers as earlier it was designed to provide steel cover which was later replaced by R.C.C slab. Also revision of GAD due to Change in alignment to fulfill requirement of BRTS and World Bank norms

• Adverse weather
Adverse weather conditions also led to the delay of work for Nashik Phata flyover, prolonged monsoon of 2010 -2011.

• Additional work by client
Relocation of transmission tower and MNGL lines also led to the delay of construction of Nashik Phata Flyover.

• Delay in Decisions

Nashik Phata - Wakad BRT Corridor Concluding Remark
To summarize, cost over of Rs.20 crore has been made on the Nashik Phata flyover itself its original tender amount being 100 crore.
Concluding Remark
The BRT system was announced in December 2008, when eight routes covering 112km were proposed. Construction of the first route was due to be completed within 18 months.
By January 2009, 90% of construction work on an 11km pilot route between Nigdi and Dapodi had been completed.
However, a string of disputes between the Pimpri- Chinchwad Municipal Corporation (PCMC), civic administrators and corporators and other factors led to the project being delayed, with corporators citing funding difficulties and problems encountered on the similar Delhi BRTS and Pune BRTS projects as the causes.
In September 2009 it was announced to the press that, although most work had been completed, difficulties procuring the 650 buses required to run on the system had led to the project being indefinitely postponed.
It was also found that the proposed new bus shelters had been due to be installed on the wrong side of the road, leading to delays in their construction, while passenger information systems had yet to be installed.
The PCMC stated that this was not a major issue as the shelters could be constructed quickly from prefabricated materials, and that the vehicles would be purchased by December 2009. A month later it was revealed that the cost of the project had overrun by 230 crore, around 50% of the total project cost.

Conclusion, Recommendations and Future study
Findings of Analysis and Conclusion
From Severity Analysis
, it was found out that additional work by client has the maximum severity on cost overrun and project management failure.
Additional work denotes work which was not earlier mentioned or described during planning or designing but rather thought about by the client during the execution work.
The Nashik Phata – Wakad corridor had the same scenario, the design of the storm water drains cover was earlier planned to be made of structural steel which was later asked to be made up of R.C.C.
Also the Relocation of transmission and MNGL lines which had to be relocated was also an additional work. Testing of the Flyover (Dange Chowk Flyover) was done which also counts to additional work.

Arbitration is the second most factors, arbitration can be related to insufficient planning, but major times this comes into play due to lack of coordination and communication.
People tend to assume things and which lead to bad or unsatisfactory results. Arbitration not only causes wastage of time, efforts and money but also hampers the relations of the party involved.

The LCI Shapoorji Pallonji JV and Maharashtra State Road Development Corporation (MSRDC) for the improvement of existing ghat portion of NH-4 from Adoshi to long tunnel near Khandala (Package – 1) is the most famous one though old which lead to pay additional amount of about Rs. 6698 lakhs due to under-utilized overheads, loss due to under-utilized tools, plants and machinery, idle material storage and blocked capital, loss of profit not earned at appropriate time, loss of productivity, opportunities losses and demand due to need to restructure rates during extended period. Inadequate site investigation was the third most important factor for cost overrun according to the survey followed by Scope change arising viz. clients / consultant and Availability of site. These were the top five causes of cost overrun and project management failure.
Factor Analysis carried out from the same data collected earlier, showed good amount of reliability as the Cronbach alpha value average was 0.892, which is above the acceptable limit of 0.700 which suggested that the data collected was reliable can be used for analysis.
Further Kaiser – Meyer –Olkin (KMO) test and the Bartlett’s test of Specificity was carried out to check the adequacy of the survey data.
It was found that the KMO was 0.55 which satisfactory for the test to be carried out Bartlett’s test of Specificity concurs the same. Multiple Variable Regression was carried out to investigate the relationship between the factors and the success of achieving cost overrun.
The multiple co relation coefficients was 0.774 or to say 77% which means that 77% cost overrun can be predicted from the given 55 factors which is good.
The R^2 coefficient of determination was 0.599 or to round it off as 0.600. The Significance is also good as its < 0.5.
Hence the model can be used. From multiple regressions, coefficients of all 55 factors were found out which gives one the cost overrun prediction equation.
Negative coefficients were excluded as they cannot signify the importance. One can thus predict the cost overrun and project management failure in any construction project.

According to the objective of the study, all 55 factors were brought down to factor groups or factor clusters to get a meaningful idea of the accountability of the players responsible for the same.
Groups were made with interviews during all respondents during questionnaire survey.
It was revealed that respondents many a times suggested the dual accountability of factors which are mentioned above apart from the usual responsibility of client, contractors and consultant alone.
Factor and Multiple Variable Regression Analysis
Questionnaire Survey
Findings From Case Study
Case study made on the PCMC’s most talked BRTS, major emphasis was made on the Aundh –Ravet and Nashik Phata – Wakad corridor.
It was seen that the project had an overrun of nearly 50%.
However, it should be noted that the PCMC administration or to say the Engineers and officials had very no or little role in leading to overrun.
As major part of it was due to non-availability of site from different government viz. MoD or IR (Indian Railways).
It should be also noted that with the completion of the project, the time for one to travel from one part of to the other can be made possible and that to in a reasonable fare and with the comfort and luxury that too in less amount of time.
The project will not reduce traffic but also bring back the natural environment which was lost due to pollution.
The table clearly out rules the impact that it bring to the society.
Recommendations
As air pollution cannot be totally removed but can be upto certain limit minimized so is cost overrun it cannot be completely eradicated as in civil engineering no two projects can be entirely similar.
Thus some recommendations can be made to minimize the cost overrun and also failure in project management.
Recommendations in the form of Check list can be made for the key players viz Client consultant and contractors to minimize cost overrun and project management failure.

Future Work
Although the results from multiple variable regression analysis depict the impact of factors, the lack of new data set on independent factors remains quite incomprehensive and not practical.
This has led to the further investigation of new methods to predict cost overrun and failure in project management.
This calls upon the new technology which can be adapted and which can learn on its self, known as “Fuzzy Logic.”
This technique is however is very new in India.
However, if used can predict overrun and help players to change their strategies. Further studies can be made on it.
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Acknowledgement
I express my deep sense of gratitude to my guide and Project coordinator, Rahul S. Patil Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, PADMASHREE Dr. D.Y.PATIL INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, for the valuable guidance, constant encouragement and creative suggestions, motivations, push - ups offered during the course of this research work and also in preparing this Dissertation report.

I express my sincere thanks to Dr. R. K. Jain, Principal, PADMASHREE Dr. D.Y.PATIL INSTITUTE OF ENGINEERING AND TECHNOLOGY, for providing necessary facilities and their sincere co-operation.

My sincere thanks are extended to all staff of The BRTS Department, PIMPRI CHINCHWAD MUNCIPAL CORPORATION, Pimpri-18 for their support

And also I thank Mr. Vasant S. Salvi, Executive Engineer, Mr. Hanumant Shinde, Mr. V. Jagtap and Mr. B. Sabale, Mr. V. Bhojane Deputy Engineer, Mr. Sunil Y. Patil, Mr. K. Andure, Mr. Ganbote, Mr.H. Ghod, Mr. B. Panchal Mr. Kumbhar, Mr. Gavli, Mr. Deore and all engineering staff of Civil Engineering Department “E” Ward, PIMPRI CHINCHWAD MUNICIPAL CORPORATION for their constant views, ideas, motivation, help and support.

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