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2030: Geopolitics and Conflict

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Robert O'Neill

on 29 October 2013

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Transcript of 2030: Geopolitics and Conflict

Introduction
Part 1: Understanding War and Politics
Understanding war,
not as we would like it but as it is
, remains the central question of international politics.
Part 2: Globalization and the New Map
Part 3: Our Future Security Environment
Complex, Ambiguous, Dynamic, and Multifaceted
Next:
War Amongst The People in the 21st Century
Conducting War and Waging Peace
An Approach to Restructuring Our Forces For the 21st Century To Shrink the Gap and Make Globalization Truly Global
The New Face of Terrorism
Understanding Terrorism in the 21st Century and Rethinking Our Approach to Taking on Anti-Globalization Forces
The Accidental Guerrilla Syndrome
Insurgency and Guerrilla Warfare in a Globalized World
GEOPOLITICS & CONFLICT
WAR
Rule Sets &
A Strategic Concept
About Me and About the Project
GOALS:
Seismic shift in the way we think about the military’s function in the
21st century battlespace.
To gain a deeper understanding of how
globalization and conflict
are related; how they change the map of the world.
Context
and
perspective
To influence
future leaders
; bottom-up change.
The Thesis:

21st century warfare is moving increasingly into the human space, not away from it. We are engaged in small wars against individuals and nonstate actors in the context of a global insurgency.
PERSPECTIVE
2030
Organized, premeditated, and purposeful aggression carried out against other
humans
by units under a chain of command.

War is surely both a duel (implicit
reciprocity
) and an act of
force
, but it is perhaps best described as armed
conflict
between
states
.
State:

any political entity which controls territory and population and can effectively wield power relative to its neighbors.
Force:

the basis of any military activity; both the physical means of destruction and the body behind it.
The measure of force/power is a

relationship
,
never an absolute or a possession.
If war is a derivation of politics, then it serves us well to examine both.
“War is a clash between two hostile and
independent wills
in a chaotic and rapidly changing environment.” -- MCDP 1
Clash of Wills:
enemy has an independent will, reacts to what you do, and tries to impose his will on you.

Trial of Strength:
a constant search for advantage over one’s opponent (wrestlers).
Sun Tzu:


The Art of War is of vital importance to the

state
. It is a matter of life and death, a road either to

safety or ruin
. Hence it is a subject of inquiry which can on no account be neglected.

Primacy of Policy
The
political objective
and the
military strategic objective
are not the same, and are never the same.
Clausewitz: “
War is the continuation of
political

intercourse by other means.

The
Remarkable
Trinity
STATE
ARMY
PEOPLE
The

military strategic objective

is achieved by military
force
...

...whilst the

political objective

is achieved as a

result of the military success
.

It is only by holding the
overall political aim
in mind that appropriate adjustments can be made over time.
Geopolitics
Physical location, size, climate, topography, natural resources, technology, etc...

Geopolitics are politics
in the context of “everything else”

Conflict
Conflicts always occur within the
context
of a confrontation; the difference between the two is their respective purposes.
Confrontation:
Forces Deployed
Aim:
to influence
to establish a condition
to
win the clash of wills
.

Conflict:

Forces employed
to forcibly attain a decisive outcome by the direct application of military force;
trials of strength
Focus on the
why
, not the what or how
Applying force with
utility
.
How well you understand war and the forces at work in it.
We study war: its very nature and its
shift in paradigm
for the fight we face in the
modern battlespace
.
What is a paradigm?
“Universally recognized scientific achievements that for a time provide model problems and solutions to a community of practitioners.”
-- Thomas S. Kuhn
The
paradigms of war, or Rule Sets,
are of great importance because they are the
structures through which force is applied
.

Allow us to employ forces with
utility
.
Paradigm shift:
“necessitates both
new assumptions
and the
reconstruction of prior assumptions
--which is the main reason it is strongly resisted.”
America is the biggest rule-maker in the business of global security.

When rule sets don’t suit us, we make new ones.
1776, 1861, 1945, 1962, 2001
The Cold War Strategic Rule Set
Yet 90% of the Cold War was operations against
“lesser includeds”
Instead of trying to define the
“new world order,”
we chose to recognize the complete lack of one.
“Chaos” is not a reproducible paradigm, especially for the world’s sole superpower.
We realized that there was a huge gap between the Cold War military we built and our outdated rule sets and the
new security environment
we were rudely awakened to.
We need a
new paradigm
, and like
Truman
,
Bush
set the ball rolling with the
Patriot Act
and
Preemptive War
.
“The World is a Battlefield”
In order to better understand the new
global security rule set
in this
era of globalization
, we must understand that it reflects the underlying
economic
reality of the world at large.
The History
1990s: Globalization's Winners and Losers
The Map
The Flows
The Future
The growing nexus between
security
and
globalization
.

Rule sets to ease/mitigate the misalignment and asymmetrical spread of globalization.

Eradicating the Gap:

The size and composition of the gap will determine the nature of warfare in the 21st century.

GLOBALIZATION:
“A technology-enabled process of improved communications and transportation that enables the freer movement of goods, people, money, technology, ideas, and cultures across and within international borders.”
Understanding where globalization has taken root and where it has not is the first step towards
mapping
the
international security environment of the 21st century

(The U.S. Expeditionary Theater of Operation).
Successes
Failures
The Flow of People
The Flow of Money
The Flow of Energy
More than 40% of Earth's land has been dedicated to agriculture

16M km^2



The Flow of Food
The Flow of Security
Investment
Income
Production
Consumption
Capital
The Vicious Cycle of Poverty
&
The Virtuous Cycle of Prosperity
Waltz’s Man, The State and War (1954)
Discerning the Causality of War
Waltz Applied to Today
Discerning the Nature of Globalization
Waltz Applied to GWOT
Warfare Moving Into the Human Space
Today’s conflicts clearly combine
new actors
with
new technology
and new or
transfigured ways of war
.
Trans-
national
Networks
Super-Empowered Individuals
Democratization of Violence
Information and Communications Technology
Failed
States
Global War on Disconnectedness
We are facing a global insurgency, fought through local small wars in the Gap’s most disconnected states, against individuals, subnational, and nonstate entities who are organized in a transnational network, threatening the global system to which we are strongly connected and wholly identified.
Causality of War
Military Stuck in Nation-State View
All they see are Nation-States with militaries as instruments of big violence
But most of system's power and competition are international
Most of violence and threats have gone sub-national
Transnational Network
(Al Qa'ida)
Super-Empowered Individuals
State Sponsor:
Taliban
UBL Declares War on American Civilians: 1996
System Perturbation
Attacked Icons of Globalization
9/11: 19 men kill 3,000+ Americans on Live TV
Network War (Across the Gap)
Special Operation, Drone War, "Wars of Intelligence"
Conventional Operations
Seek a Better Future
Globalization is not a binary outcome: a “yes” or a “no,” but a process, a pathway: a what combined with a where.

Globalization has the promise of a better future.

What future do we wish to seek?

We must seek to understand and seek solutions.
Increase Socio-Economic Development in the Gap to get "out of the violence game."
Be able to sell our Rule Set to the rest of the Core; We can't do it on our own.
Not mindless pursuit of short-term security which will jeopardize long-term security solution
Our success is measured by the progressive reduction of global trouble spots
Expand Rule Sets to the Gap to progressively integrate them into the New Core.
Q & A

80% of the population growth through 2030 (2b people).
80% of resource shortages.
Climate change will exacerbate all of the flows.

4:1
PSR
Old Core 2:1
New Core 5:1
Gap 10:1
Flow
Jobs
Demographics:
2030:
Close to 8.3 billion people
2050:
9-9.5 billion


Migration/Urbanization
2013:
½ population is urban (3.6B), ½ is rural (3.6B)
2030:
60% population in cities (4.9B)
2050:
2.9B rural, 6.6B urban
85% in New Core Asia or Gap; 1/2 slums
Petare, Venezuela
Megacities: (now 21)









The "C's"
Complex Complicated Connected Congested Constrained Cluttered Coastal Competitive (resources) Constantly on the edge

What makes a country a Gap country?
Failure to industrialize and lack of
FDI
Development Traps (
Development Chutes and Ladders
)
Conflict Trap
Resource Trap
Landlocked with bad neighbors
Bad Leadership
Trends:
an extrapolation of things
happening today
that, if
left largely alone
, will continue along the
path
they are on and result in a
“tomorrow”
that while not “predictable” represents a
projection
of a future state that is more likely than not.
Mitigate Surprise.
30%
60%
10%
Year: 2000
Total Pop: 6B
0-14
15-56
65+
20%
60%
20%
Year: 2050
Total Pop: 9.5B
0-14
15-56
65+
Food demands increase 30-40%
Water demands increase by 50%
Hot-button issues such as GMOs, Agricultural subsidies, NAFTA, etc
Global crisis in agriculture: The Other Inconvenient Truth
Agriculture is the biggest contributor to climate change (nearly 30% of greenhouse emissions).
We need to feed 9 billion people without destroying the planet:
Global pastures cover almost
30M km^2

We use
2,800 km^3
of water on crops every year
SYSTEM PERTURBATION AND PARADIGM CRISIS IS ACTUALIZED
Full transcript