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A roadmap to energy self-sufficiency

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by

Richard Munisamy

on 11 June 2012

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Transcript of A roadmap to energy self-sufficiency

Political
"Coal is here to stay"
"We will never have 100% renewable energy"
Integrating
Storage
Flexibility
Smart grid
Flexible demand
Flexible generation
Stability
Output smoothing
Low voltage run-through
Reactive power control
Frequency response
Primary Energy Requirement 2010
15,000 GWh
Net electricity
16.2%
Network losses
1.5%
Conversion losses
42.7%
Transport
22.7%
Other uses
16.8%
Coal
38.7%
Kerosene
0.7%
Diesel and fuel oil
36.3%
Hydro
3.7%
Bagasse
20.5%
Wind
0.1%
Electricity Generation 2010
2,689 GWh
Transport Energy 2010
3,429 GWh
LPG
1.7%
Gasoline
43.3%
Diesel
55%
Heat
Work
Heat
Vehicle Fleet 2010
384,115
Cars
33.2%
Motorcycles
12.7%
Scooters
28.8%
Pickups
12.6%
Vans
6.7%
Buses
0.7%
Lorries &
trucks
3.4%
Other
1.9%
Excluding
Air Mauritius
How are we doing?
Data source: CSO
Energy Statistics 2010
Data source: CSO
Road Transport and Road Traffic Accident Statistics 2010
"We have no natural resources"
Where are we heading?
Technical
Pulverised coal
LNG
Feed-in Tariffs
Waste to energy
Residual Fuel Oil
Wind farms
"35% renewable energy by 2025"
35% of electricity from renewable sources???
Year
Share of Imports (%)
% of GDP
Trade balance
Food
Fuel
Hedging
fiasco?
Financial
crisis
Oil scarcity
Food crises
Social unrest
Business as usual
Mono-crop economy
"Economic
miracle"
Economic
collapse?
Economic
challenges
Economic
How do we get there?
Energy
Food
Food & Energy
Save it
Imports
Location
Avoid agricultural land
Urban regeneration
Retrofitting
Densification
Make it
Data source:
World Bank
Roof gardens
Kitchen gardens
Community gardens
Leave space for solar...
PV shaded greenhouses
Raised bed
Simple hydroponics
Integrated wind
75% losses in engine & drive train
Perspectives
Heavy
Inefficient
Danger to pedestrians
100% Gasoline 100% LPG
50% Diesel
Electricity could replace:
75% energy savings
Electricity required:
621 GWh
Fuel required:
943 GWh
Soil fertility & nutrient recycling
Energy roadmap
Could be supplied from:
- Conversion losses (CHP)
- Solar thermal (concentrating)
- Deep ocean cooling
OR
Eliminate heat intensive industries
Electric motors could yield 50% +
efficiency improvements
Why low tax???
Energy saved:
1864 GWh
Computer controlled aeroponics
Reduce
Local materials
Plant trees!!!
Reuse
Recycle
The built environment
Steel
Aluminium
Use that harvested rainwater!
...and a car charger!
Location Location
UK rioters
Young, poor and unemployed
http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/aug/18/england-rioters-young-poor-unemployed
Middle East riots:
food and fuel
http://www.thedailynewsegypt.com/economy/egypt-eyes-inflation-as-algeria-tunisia-are-mired-in-food-riots.html
Talk about FITs as hedging
PPA - back loan funded
Risk of removing panel
Explain hedging and why it is a good idea
Triggered by an energy crisis?
1 GWh = 1 million kWh
1 kWh = unit sold by CEB
10,000 kWh per person
Conversion
efficiency
Diesel & fuel oil
Kerosene
Bagasse
Coal
Average
44.0%
26.0%
26.0%
22.4%
29.4%
Sunshine
Wind
200 W/m
2
2000 km
2
365 x 24 hours
3.5 million GWh
Average insolation
Hours per year
Land area
x
x
Sunshine
Electromagnetic
Energy
Wind
Kinetic
Energy
Maximum extraction
Power density
Cross section
Hours per year
x
x
x
365 x 24 hours
100 km
x
500 m
p v
1
_
2
3
1.22 kg/m
3
5 m/s
59 %
Betz' Law
80,000 GWh
Rain
Potential
Energy
Density
x
Catchment
area
Rainfall
x
Gravity
Height
x
x
1000 kg/m
3
650 km
2
2000 mm/year
300 m
9.81 m/s
2
1635 GWh
Height!
Wind speed!
Rain
Photovoltaics
20% efficient
Urban areas
30%
Roofs
5%
350 GWh/km
Wind turbines
Limited height
Minimum spacing
Wind farms
Hydro-electric
Reservoirs
Rivers
Water supply network
Catchment
Suitable sites
Agricultural
Flight
paths
Electricity
pylons
Off shore
Grand Port
Depth
20 m
50 m?
Organic stuff
Store of solar energy
Energy crops
Municipal waste
Agricultural waste
Industrial waste
Is there an alternative?
Lower wind speed
6 m/s
Power density
1
1
_
2
p
v
3
____
pi
spacing
n
59%
5d
40%
50%
1,500 GWh +
Car parks
Paths
Wind conditions
Cyclones
Roches Noires
2
d
2
_
4
Efficiency 90%
20%
100 GWh +
Refurbishment
Low head
Streams
Annual potential
Realistic
Annual potential
Realistic
Annual potential
Actual
Our natural resources
Efficient demand
Model
Type
Electric range
Toyota Prius II
Hybrid
0 km
Toyota Prius III+
Plug-in hybrid
20 km
Estimate
Chevrolet Volt
Extended range
electric vehicle
Electric vehicle
Nissan Leaf
56 km
117 km
Length of Mauritius..
100 km
How far can electricity take us?
How much can we electrify?
NPA figures
Ugly?
Efficient
Comfortable
Frequent
Grid charged
Waste water
Storage
Flexible
Smart charging
Yard waste
Electricity
Fuels
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Methane
Hydrogen
Gas turbines
Internal combustion engines
Fuel cells
Direct
combustion
Inefficient
Perfect balance
Currently expensive
Transport
Demand
Supply
Nutritional security
HGVs
Buses
Flexible
"Eat what we grow
& grow what we eat"
Subsidies
White rice
White flour
Cooking oil
Diabetes
Heart disease
Hypertension
Food security
Affordable & nutritious local food
What about the fish???
Competition for agricultural land
Food
Energy crops
Sugarcane
Reforestation
Shopping malls
Don't forget fertilisers!
Seafood hub
Fischer-Tropsch
Flash pyrolysis
Anaerobic digestion
Fermentation
Hydrolysis
Thermal gasification
Open-cycle
Combined-cycle
Cheap food for the masses
Rice?
Wheat?
Animal feed?
Wind farms
Made from fossil fuels
Efficiency
Electrification
Wind
Rain
Stored sunlight
Keys to energy balance
PV & storage
Energy crops
Other organics
Demand
Supply
"non-existent"
Suitable sites
1990-2010
50% reduction in catch from coastal waters
Subsidise exports
Unhealthy food tax
Hungary
Printed food!!!
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,783862,00.html
http://www.fastcompany.com/1778661/3d-printers-food-digital-gastronomy?
Torrefaction
Biochar
Store of solar energy
2
19.4 GWh/km
2
4% total land area
15,000 GWh
2.1% total land area
Midlands dam
125 GWh
Volume = 25.5 million m
Elevation = 500 m
3
Efficiency
Renewable electricity
Are we all in the same boat?
1998
2008
Change
Mauritius
22.18%
42.37%
20.18%
The World
14.97%
24.94%
9.98%
1999
2009
Change
Mauritius
20.90%
37.31%
16.41%
The World
15.24%
22.85%
7.56%
Food + Fuel
Total Imports
__________
Food + Fuel
Total Imports
__________
Decadal changes
Trends for 2006-2008
Food + Fuel
Total Imports
__________
Excluding re-exports
& bunkering
Exponential fit
R = 0.9993
2
Linear fit
R = 0.9960
2
Is the greatest threat to the Mauritian economy a sustained global recovery?
%
Renewable supply
Transform transport
Reduce conversion
losses (heat)
Improve other uses
Save electricity
Efficient appliances
Energy star ratings
LED lighting
Switch off when not needed
Work
Heat
Electrify
machines
Solar thermal
Heat pumps
Conversion losses
CHP
Trigeneration
It's cheaper to save it than make it
Subsidise efficiency
not consumption
Grants to the poor
Photovoltaics
Wind
turbines
Water turbines
More efficient thermal plant
Reduce journeys
Mass transit
Length
Number
Teleworking
E-Gov
Mixed use developments
Electrification
Not always efficient
Public fast chargers
60% rural - low popuation density
More non-thermal plant
60% of population
LRT
New buses
Trams
Night services?
Rural areas?
We still need cars
(or other personal transport)
Electrification
Mass transit
75% efficiency gain
Save electricity
Reduce journeys
Mixed use developments
E-Gov
Tele-working
Improve other uses
Deep ocean cooling
Electricity
Supply must balance demand at every instant
or the network will become unstable.
Demand
Supply
Variable
Flexible
Domestic
Industrial
Commercial
???
Sunshine
Wind
Rain
???
Urban densification
Culture
Imports
Electricity balance
Minimal fuels
HGVs &
Buses
Off-grid
Pay more now
to pay less later
1
Energy crops
100 dry tonnes/hectare
18.4 MJ/kg
18.6% total land area
51.1 GWh/km
2
2.9% efficient
Water
use
Irrigation
Industrial
Domestic
Cooking gas
Heating water
Feeding dogs
Deep frying
Sugar drinks
Yes there is
Together
Not so good
Objectives
"Grow and eat what is healthy"
Meet 100% of our nutritional needs in times of crisis
Space
Weather
Workers
Subsidise efficiency
not generation
No feed-in tariffs for solar
A Road Map to Energy Self-Sufficiency
Re-Volt! or...
...Revolution!
IRS/RES
Social housing
Increased cost of living
Decreased quality of life
Unpunished corruption
Growing inequality
Public demonstration
State repression
Out of touch politicians
Increasing anger
Unaccountable waste
Elections
Who cares?
Just keep up!
Energy carriers
Electric Gaseous Liquid Solid
Electrons
Hydrogen
Methane
Methanol
Ethanol
Oil
Char
Batteries
Super capacitors
Pumped storage
Flywheels
Compressed gas
etc
Can be liquified
Increasing carbon atoms per molecule
Energy crops
Methane
Electricity
Transport
Diesel
Sunshine
Wind
Rain
Energy system
Energy crops
Methane
Fertiliser
Food crops
Waste
Fertiliser
Segregated

green waste
Nutrient recycling
Including sewerage sludge
Evolution
(Hydro)Thermal gasification
+ methanation
Anaerobic digestion
ICE
CCGT
Fuel cell
Electrolysis + methanation
Max 60%
Max 45%
Max 60%
Max 70%
Typically 75% efficient
70-80% efficient
Depending on feedstock
Independent of feedstock
Depending on process
Cooking and heating
Off grid work
CNG
Dual fuel
Up to 75% diesel substitution
Pyrolysis oil
Petroleum substitutes
Pyrolysed
Torrefied
LNG
<5 MW
>5 MW
Getting there is a complex balance of land use, soil fertility, social justice & energy requirements
It requires a holistic systems-based approach.
Optimising the system as a whole is more effective than optimising each component part

Nutrition
Forests
Roof gardens
Kitchen gardens
Community gardens
Lower efficiency AD allows return of carbon to soil as lignin. Slow to decompose. Water & mineral retention. Increases bioavailability of nutrients. Increases organic content encouraging beneficial microbes.
Forest types
Endemic - biodiversity
Timber - building materials
Orchards - fruit and nuts
Rain/cloud forest - promote rainfall
Other roles: cooling, shade, air purification, prevent soil erosion, improve soil fertility, moisture retention

This is a journey - the map will need to be
reviewed as we progress along the path

Job creation???
The Egypt Daily News January 10, 2011

"In 2010, non-core inflation, such as food and energy, increased...
Given the official 10 percent unemployment rate, social unrest is a source of tension not to be overlooked...
The growing number of new college graduates with poor to zero employment prospects on the horizon in the face of increasing living costs...could be a formula for trouble down the road."
What's stopping us?
Food security problem -
reducing popluation of agri-workers

Balance efficiency & resilience: adaptability, redundancy, diversity. e.g. grass vitamins and amino acids for fodder
Water supply
Food
Everywhere
Water
Rain/cloud forest
Soil fertility
Introduce organic material
Land use
Social housing
Integrate into new developments
Urban sprawl
Our of town developments
Urban regeneration
Nutrient recycling
Drought tolerant crops
Avoid water cooling for electricity generation
Forest
Urban
Roof gardens
Kitchen gardens
Community gardens
Higher density
More green space
Energy
Everywhere
Rainwater harvesting
Buildings
Solar
Ridge blades
Raised bed
Hydroponic
Aeroponic
Green houses
Agricultural
Wind turbines
Orchards
Energy crops
Agricultural
Food crops
Energy
Water
Forest
Food
Construction
Holistic land use planning
Bagasse/coal substitute
Guava trees
Land use
Forest 350 km2
Agricultural 1000km2
Built up 650 km2
Sugar estate 288 km2
Planters 291 km2
Metayers 8 km2
Food
Use of croplands 2010
800 km
Sugar (estates)
36.0%
Sugar (planters)
36.4%
Sugar (metayers)
1.0%
Abandoned*
16.4%
Food
8.6%
Tea
1.3%
Tobacco
0.3%
Estimate
2
Data source: CSO Agriculture and Fish Production 2010
Approx
Nutrients

& lignin
Possibility of using lignin for bio-plastics etc
Dry thermophilic heated by engine cooling system
Soil erosion
Rain
Wind
Perennial crops
Cropland wind farms
Nutrient recycling
Solar PV
Solar thermal
Orchards
Soil stabilisation
Rain water harvesting
Grey water recycling
Storm water & nutrient retention
Enhanced rainfall
Urban agriculture
Energy efficiency
IRS/RES
Out-of-town shopping malls
Jin Fei
Urban sprawl
Not opportunistic
Urban regeneration
Self-suffiency
Nutritional security
Protecting biodiversity
Effective management
Sustainable drainage
Purification
Wind breaks
Walkability
Organic waste management
Eliminating pollution
Coastal waters
2 million tourists by 2015
Recovery of fish stocks
Off-shore wind farms
Shore-line protection by reefs
Shore-line protection by mangroves
Lagoon restoration
Permitting beach migration inland
Replenishing coral sands
Waves & ocean currents
Sea vegetable harvesting
Preventing siltation
Ecology
Society
Economy
Rest of the World
Rest of Africa
Mauritius
Economy
Society
Ecology
Temperature rise
Sea level rise
More intense storms
Changing rainfall patterns
Ocean acidification
Reef destruction
Rising GHG levels
Resource depletion
Overfishing
Soil erosion
Soil infertility
Lagoon pollution
More expensive imports
Less competitive exports
Less affluent visitors
Global recession
Increased cost of living
Lower quality of life
Increasing inequality
Increasing unemployment
Vulnerable industries
Increasing trade deficit
Volatile food & fuel prices
Social unrest
Uncertainty
Austerity
Protests
Increasing nationalism
The Global Context
Smart charging
HomePlug GreenPhy
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HomePlug#HomePlug_GreenPhy
Water: 2 qualities
- clean enough to wash (pipes & harvesting)
- clean enough to drink (filters).
Increase rainfall with cloud seeding.
Pay for filters by taxing plastic bottles.
No need for chlorination.
Integrate domestic and irrigation.

Primary Energy
Requirement 2010
Hydrogen

Methane
Energy scenario
Baseline 2010
Other fuel uses
HHV
Giant King Grass
KDV Process
ICE
Synthetic
Put in evolution
Fuel choice is less relevant
How to meet 2010's optimised energy needs
Heating & drying
Full transcript