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Nile River Basin (Water Conflict)

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Hai Ha Pham Tran

on 2 October 2012

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Transcript of Nile River Basin (Water Conflict)

(Egypt & Sudan) Main Interest "Nile water is a matter of national security. We won't under any circumstances allow our water rights to be jeopardized"

Mohamed Nasreddin Allam, Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation (April 2010). al ir utilizando el botón + se darán cuenta que
busca espacio en el lienzo de manera automática. "PRINCIPLE OF PRIOR USE" Ethio-Egyptian Relations and the Historical Egyptian Hegemony botón + confirma elimina 1902 Treaties Relative to the Frontiers Between the Sudan, Ethiopia, & Eritrea 1929 Nile Waters Agreement 1959 Agreement on Full Utilization of the Nile Waters Water Wars "Water Stress" "When the scarcity of water in an arid and semi-arid environment leads to intense political pressures" Upper Riparian States "Peak Water" Effect The diminishment of
water supply over time “Egypt’s share of the Nile’s water is a historic right that Egypt has defended throughout its history."

Mohammed Allam, Egypt’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation (April 2010) “Our Egyptian water comes from the geography of the river and they can’t control that [...] They don’t need the water that runs into Egypt and we didn’t take it from them by force.”

Abd el Ati el Shafei, Chairman of the Nile Guards and Environment Protection Association. "NO-HARM" RULE Geographical location: a natural advantage GLEICK FALKENMARK A State that is situated on the banks of a river RIPARIAN DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANS Burundi, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
DR Congo, Kenya, Rwanda, Tanzania, Uganda Egypt, Sudan,
Southern Sudan Geraldine Miranda
Squeenie Tsang
Hai-Ha Pham Tran
Choa Choi
Ah-reum Song COUNTRY Percentage of Nile used by Country Ethiopia Upper White Nile riparian states (Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, DRC) Egypt < 0.05 cubic kilometers 55.5 cubic kilometers 0.65% (while Nile constitutes 68% of the country’s available water resources) Historic / Prior Use (cc) photo by medhead on Flickr Equitable Utilization High population growth
Food insecurity,
Environmental Degradation
Water Scarcity Counter Argument
Against Lower Riparian States 1902 Agreement The Grand Millennium Dam Project (GMD) 1959 Nile Waters Agreement Article 60: “A material breach of a bilateral treaty by one of the parties entitles the other to invoke the breach as a ground for terminating the treaty or suspending its operation in whole or in part.” 1. Rebus Sic Stanibus: “A State can terminate the application of a treaty if a fundamental change of circumstances occurs” (Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties)
2. Clean Slate Doctrine
3. Nyerere Doctrine / Tabula Rasa theory
4. Jus Cogens Principle Equitable Utilization: “Each basin State is entitled, within its territory, to a reasonable and equitable share in the beneficial uses of the waters of an international drainage basin.”

(Helsinki Rules, International Law Association)

HYDOMET Survey Project (1967) between the Nile Basic countries
TECCONILE (1993) between Egypt and Ethiopia
Nile Basin Initiative (1999)
The Nile 2002 Conference Series
Agreement on Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework (2010) Efforts on Cooperation & Equitable and Reasonable Utilization Efforts on Sustainable Development & Equitable Utilization COOPERATION EQUITABLE UTILIZATION HYDROPOLITICS: DOWNSTREAM vs. UPSTREAM NILE BASIN INITIATIVE
(NBI - 1999) COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT (CFA - 2010) Fundamental issues not addressed
"Water Security" means what? (Article 14b)
Exclusive negotiation: limited input from professional resources Article 14b: Member countries would work together to ensure "not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State."

Egypt & Sudan: "Not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin States" without the qualification "significantly" Ethiopia led river Nile agreement signed without Egypt and Sudan Cooperation Through Multilateral Projects "If Ethiopia was the source of the Nile, Egypt was the source of the patriarch for the Ethiopians" - Erlich Ancient Times 1999: Nile Basin Initiative Grand Millennium Dam (Ethiopia) 2010: Agreement on Nile River Basin Cooperative Framework Four Contributing Phases 1929 1959 48 billion cubic meters 55.5 billion cubic meters 4 billion cubic meters 18.5 billion cubic meters Egypt and Sudan will not sign a new deal unless they are first guaranteed an exact share of the water based on existing colonial entitlements. "They [upstream countries] have a lot of rain: this is nature.They do not need the water. Here in Sudan we need water."

Ahmed el-Mufti, Legal Counsel for Sudan's Delegation (May 2010) "Each nation shall not cause ‘substantial damage’ to the environment or the natural condition of the waters beyond the limits of the nation’s jurisdiction.” Helsinki Rules on the Uses of the Waters of International River, 1966) "The secret is to look for benefits and then try to share them. If that is done, water can bring competitors together."-The Economist "reliable" "resonable" "utilization" "participation" "relevant institution" "enfoncement mechanism" government NGO World Bank UNDP international lawyer press general public UPSTREAM
vs. DOWNSTREAM WHAT IS DOWNSTREAM RIPARIAN STATES UPSTREAM RIPARIAN STATES (Egypt + Sudan) (Ethiopia + others) 19th Century British Colonial Period 1950's Arab Nationalism Period Mohammad Ali extensive expansion of irrigation infrastructure Technological and political measures pursued in order to launch a new hydraulic project intensifying Egyptian Agriculture
1902 Treaties Relative to the Frontiers Between Sudan, Ethiopia, and Eritrea Gamal Abdel-Nasser's lead to construction of Aswan dam
1959 Agreement on the Full Utilization of the Nile Waters between Egypt and Sudan Economical Political Technological Legal
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