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Scenario Planning - How to be Rigorous

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Krisztina E. Lengyel Almos

on 5 February 2015

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Transcript of Scenario Planning - How to be Rigorous

How to be Rigourous
Scenario Planning
relevance
coherence
plausibility
importance
transparency
Five Conditions
and the Tools to ensure Rigour
Q1) Does naming something a scenario really assures that we´re dealing with a scenario?
Q2) Is it necessary to draft full detailed scenarios?
Attitudes & Scenarios:
Corresponding Scenarios
Corresponding Strategies
Passive
Reactive
Go with the flow
None
Adaptive
Compare
None
5+7=
(cc) image by anemoneprojectors on Flickr
Preactive
Trend-based
Preventive
Attitudes
Proactive
Desirable alternatives
Innovative
1) stimulate imagination
2) reduce inconsistency
3) create a common language
4) structure the collective thinking process
5) enable appropriation
Five Conditions
to set for Scenario Planning
Includes:
future scenarios
competence trees
strategic analysis
Scenario Planning -
- an Integrated Approach
1. human
2. financial
3. technical
4. productive
5. commercial

Basic Resources
5
in any organization
Scenario Planning,
the whole integrated process
Source: Godet, Michel, Creating Futures, Ch.5, 2006
Scenario-types
1)
reference scenarios
: the most probable
2)
contrasted scenario
: exploration of intentionally extreme scenarios
if trend-based: extrapolation
a historical scenario can be
a) normative
b) imaginative
Source: Godet, Creating Futures, 2006
Sources:
Godet, Michel., Creating Futures: Scenario Planning as a Strategic Management Tool , Ch.5. "How to be Rigorous"/ Michel Godet ; preface by Joseph F. Coates ; translated by Adam Gerber and Kathryn Radford., London: Economica, 2006.
Wade, Woody, Scenario Planning, Ch 2, "How To", Wade & Company, SA. John Wiley &Sons, Inc., New Jersey, 2012
Cornish, Edward: Futuring: The Exploration of the Future World Future Society; 1 edition, 2005
(3-Scenario Method)
Cross-Matrix Method
1) Framing the Challenge
2) Gathering Information
3)
Identifying Driving Forces
(select 2 critical)
4)

Either
/
or
->future´s critical uncertainties
5) Generating Scenarios
6) Creating Story Lines
7) Validation & identify further research
8) Assessing implication
9) Identifying Signposts
10) Monitoring & updating scenarios
critical issue 1
(e.g. social network)
-
-
+
+
Scenario 1
(-,+)
Scenario 2
(+,+)
Scenario 3
(-,-)
Scenario 4
(+,-)
(e.g. economic progress)
critical issue 2
Thank You! ...and now get ready for your own scenario planning!
Full transcript