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Hillary Patin Econometrics

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Hillary Patin

on 2 May 2013

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Transcript of Hillary Patin Econometrics

Background Model & Variables Regression & Chow Test Conclusions Regression Significant that black females spend more time in prison than white males
Time in prison: black males > white males > white females
Average incarc. length: 1 > 0.5 > 0.25
This suggests that prosecutors are twice as likely to charge black males with mandatory minimum sentencing as white males, & 4x as likely as white females, ceteris paribus; however, this is not specific to non-violent drug offenses, although they make up about half of the incarcerated population.
Adds to existing pre-Fair Sentencing Act of 2010 conclusions. Is there racial discrimination in determining the length of incarceration for non-violent drug offenses? By Hillary Patin U.S. Prisons & Acts
4x population since 1980 (War on Drugs)
U.S. has highest incarceration rate in world
4.46% world population; 25% world prisoners
Blacks in U.S.
12-13% population; 40% prison inmates
Anti-Drug Abuse Act 1986: Reagan
100:1 powder vs. crack cocaine min. sentencing
Fair Sentencing Act of 2010: Obama
18:1 powder vs. crack cocaine min. sentencing Justice System Variables:
Total months of incarceration
Total # of incarceration
Convicted of possession/use 1997-2009*
Convicted of sale/trafficking 1997-2009*
Total # of arrests
Total # of arrests ^2 Race & the U.S. Justice System
correlation is not causation
Is our justice system "just"?
Minimum Mandatory Sentencing: Controversial
one study suggests that prosecutors are, “ceteris paribus, twice as likely to charge [charges carrying mandatory minimum sentencing] against blacks” (Rehavi & Starr, 2012) Motivation: Context: Model & Variables: Drug Variables:
Marijuana before work/school in 2009
Hard drugs before work/school 2009
How many times used cocaine 2009
Sold marijuana in 2009
Sold hard drugs in 2009 Lifestyle Variables:
Gender/race interaction (white male base)
Homeless birth-2009*
Logged total income 2009
Both biological parents at home age 12
Married 2009
Household member in jail 1997-2009*
Learning/emotional problems as child 1997
Have biological children in household 2009
Religious 2008
Have higher than h.s. diploma 2009 Data: National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997 (24-28 year olds in 2009) Pros:
Large sample size (n = 7700)
Annual survey 1997-2010
Plentiful data Cons:
Data not always consistent; "valid skip"
Survey not given to those currently incarcerated
Unable to tell federal vs. state convictions
Unable to calculate in ethnicity & urban/suburban Chow Test Probabilities for Mandatory Minimum & Safety Valve:
NE: 65%; 28%
NC: 71%; 43%
S: 49%; 30%
W: 34%; 13% n=4822 Descriptive Statistics n = 645 n = 706 n = 1849 n = 1575 18.709/1.768 = 10.583 average incarceration length per incarceration
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