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Syria Assad

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on 22 May 2015

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Transcript of Syria Assad

Protests in Syria/Media freedom/Crisis in Syria
What kicked off the protests in Syria?
How did the government respond?
Where did they spread?
Who is leader of Syria?
Was his response consistent?
Is the government evil?
Is support for the protestors great amongst the population?
Detail the groups that make up Syria.
What government decision was taken in February?
Was it significant when the Syrian government resigned?
Maher Assad
Rami Makhlouf
No easy fix
What are 'foreign' powers promising?
Why is their reluctance to help?
What does the plan ask Assad to do?
WHAT is the opposition?
How organised are they?
How to set Syria free
How many Syrians have died?
Why does the UN not intervene?
Why is Syria's ethnic makeup a problem?
Why not let Assad finish the job and restore 'order'?
What is supporting Assad?
How united is the opposition?
Would foreign intervention work?
Why would Putin support Assad?
What is Turkey's role?
4th Armoured Division
shabbiha
Alawite/Sunni
JIR, Sept 2011.
EU, 95% S oil.
Iran makeup.
Economic...hardship. Non-oil producing.
subsidies, tourism, largesse
Oil producers...$$$$$$
Syria...
Israel, Iran, Turkey.
Nov, 2012, 40k? Turkey....
*Syrian Observatory for Human Rights
Kurds.
Ethnic makeup
Religious makeup
E. blogs. 'Pomegranate'
?
Suicide bombers
name of group?
Abu Azzam
Nov 12, 2012.
Doha. Moaz al-Khateeb.
(deps...Riad Seif + Suheir Atassi)
Syrian National Council
National Coordination Body
March 18 2011, Deraa
Syrian National Coalition for
Revolutionary and Opposition
Forces.
Unified military Cmd (aim?)
Better the devil you know?
Russia
China
Tartus
Arms
Muslim Brotherhood
France. (UK).
Foreign Reserves ($18bn, March 2011)
Lebanon
Iraq
China
Russia
Massive gathering of divergent aims
http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2012/11/organising-syrias-opposition
Nov 8, Ras al-Ayn
seek W mil aid?
No Kurdish Nat Council?
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europe/2012/11/20121119195737909518.html
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15798218
OPP;
No For Int=
+ elite....
Qatar, Saudi....Iran out. Ctrl result.
USA/EU; fear civil war (bloody)
Russia/China; Libya too far
Turkey; had been good but refugees
Syria, punch above weight,
courted by all
WHY?
Iran.
Then Deraa March 2011.
Disconnected from ground
arg no intervention
fear of
sectarianism
Umbrella
fear militarizing
http://www.economist.com/blogs/pomegranate/2012/11/beards-syria
Jabhat Al-Nusra
VBIEDS
Assad?
PKK....
activity?
Chemical weapons
Syria...
Mustard Gas
Sarin
VX
Bases..FSA overrun
10 June 2012 Al Ghantou SA-2 ....
2 Nov, 2012. Radar site. Nr. Salaqin.
Hizbullah....
Danger; Scuds
Scud-C/Scud-D (DPRK NoDong M)
Range 700km (D)
Liquid fuelled
500kg warhead
missiles, mortars, Southern Lebanon
Iran.....
Google Earth
Completed;
after 2005/10 Nov
75,000 to secure?
AD?
More..
30k
open comms with opp
(invited to Moscow)
Muammar Gadhafi
Libya chaos after UN sec coun
Iran (south)
Circassians
Iran 2010 S-300
Nuclear Industry, X. Iran.
Georgia, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Tunisia, Egypt....
Bashar spt Putin during Georgia war publicly 2008?
Hamas
Sunni Muslim Brotherhood
strategic depth
June 2012; 230k/17k
Failure, credibility
FSA. July 2011. AF, Col Riad al-Assad.
shabiha
Houla, May 2012.
108, half children.
executions
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18233934
FSA
Late 2011
FSA on offensive.
Jan 2012, holding.....
2/3
Baba Amr Feb 2012
W journalists KIA
Rebels withdrew...
4th Arm
Repub Guard
Homs 'completely devastated'
March 2012...@
http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-march-15-2012/march-15--2012---pt--1
Gulf States $100m
EU sanctions 22.5%
Oil; 30%
production
(Iran)
Car bombs
X5 suicide bombs March 2012
Aleppo/Damascus
Currently;
defections low
No whole-scale units LIB
Cont civil war
Sectarian violence
Proxy war
Region
WMD
Business elite...
Damascus
17 March 2012
CIA; Turkey 'filtering'
al-Manara al-Baida
Idlib
Security Buildings.
18 July 2012;
23 Dec 2011 - 44 people killed in twin car bomb attacks in Damascus
10 Feb 2012 - 28 people killed as security compounds hit by two suicide car bombs in Aleppo
17 Mar - 27 people die in explosions in Damascus near intelligence and security buildings
10 May - Two suicide bombers blow themselves up outside military intelligence in Damascus killing 55
defence team.
Brother in law
Def Min
Crisis Management Hd
Bombing;
FSA
Ikhtiar
Turcomani
Rajiha
Shawkat
Nat Security Bureau
Regime; suicide bombers
4th Arm
Rep Gd
Rumours...
Christians to Beirut
Islamists
existential threats
cos;
'exposed the inability of their ideology
and violent tactics to achieve results to compare
with those of non-violent uprisings, including the mobilisation of large segments of society in favour of change.'
Oil rich; $$$$$ stable
Oil poor;
Prices
subsidies impossible
Gulf States
Tourism
Turkey..imperial past
Syriatel
cousin
Hafez Makhlouf, (cousin to Rami)
Heavy Deraa
(wounded in bombing)
1994, car acc Basil Assad
Suicide bombers?
72 Virgins
Ban Ki Moon.
6 Jan 2012 Damascus 26/63
10 Feb Aleppo
17 Mar Damascus
13 more 20 April/5 May
Mass defection?
Unit let FSA in.
14 April 2012
Kofi Annan.
'Annan' Plan
ceasefire
didn't last
FSA or al-Nusra?
2 June, ceasfire ends.
120 KIA > entire al-Nusra campaign
I did my best to protect the people. I
cannot feel guilty.
Interview ABC, 7 Dec 2011.
If I were in Bashar's shoes, I
would step down.
King Abdullah of Jordan. BBC News,
14 Nov 2011.
Mil INTEL+State Sec bldgs
28/175
SB?
6k / 10k
dominates Leb pol scene
Mainly Shia
Hizbullah; pol.
al-Muqawama al-Islamiyya; mil.
spt Arab Spring
not here
benefited hugely SYR
esp Bashar..su.
dec of spt for
'oppressed peoples'
arg revolt a W.conspiracy
Sunni pop SYR had spt Hiz
rumours Hiz help. Assad
'beards and clothing'
M, rkts,
snipers? train.
real point...SYR pop regard Hiz diff light
att Israel if NATO intervenes
Iran involved?
Islamic resistance KEY
Sunni......
Assad's SYR
cache..April 2011...su mov.
year later, still
fort. S.Leb
Axis of Resistance..
Syria, Iran, Hizbullah, Hamas,
Palestine gps back. by SYR, Iraqi gps.
Demographics
less gov. indoc
post Deraa....P. 30 March 2011
no apology
no reform
pol cap squandered

pop..double game
Local Co-ord cmmttees
desp arrests, org demo still cont

SNC..more later
Ba'ath party, decades repression
diff to oppose org fashion

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/terrorism-security/2012/0621/Report-CIA-aids-in-funneling-arms-to-Syrian-rebels
Kurds/Islamists
http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/03/08/islamism_and_the_syrian_uprising
Qubair early (5?)June 2012
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18364674
'all the Syrians are one'
'Sunni blood is one'
'Christians to Beirut, Alawites to hell.'
Stalemate
Int'l impasse

The Arab Awakening.
Strategic Survey
Volume 111, Issue 1, 2011
06 Sep 2011
Alawites to the grave
Full transcript