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Banana Bunchy Top Virus!

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by

Carly Muldowney

on 24 August 2013

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Transcript of Banana Bunchy Top Virus!

The Impact of BBTV on Sustainability Island
Banana Bunchy Top Virus!
There has been an infestation of BBTV. Any banana plants with the virus MUST BE DESTROYED! As bananas are responsible for a significant proportion of Sustainability Island's export revenue, our job is to inform the government the likely impact of the infestation and to make sure it is stopped in it's tracks!
How many banana plant's are on the island?
Banana Plants are placed in rows 3m apart and spaced 1.5m along those rows.

Therefore: 10,000= A hectare
100/3=33.34
100/1.5=66.67
Each 100sq m has 34x67 banana plants=2278
Therefore 2278x100=
227800 banana plants each hectare.
Banana Plant Closest to our settlement- Plantation B
If one banana plant is infected, then that plant infects two plants, then those plants infect three plants and those infect four plants and so on. The aphid cycle is 9-21 days which means the virus could spread every 10 days.

Plantation B=28,247,200 banana plants
11!=39,916,800
Therefore by 100 days (1 is included as Day 0, each factorial represents 10 day life cycle) all of our crop would be gone.


Whole Banana Plantation
Earlier, we worked out that the whole islands plantation has 243,290,400 banana plants.

12!=479,001,600
Therefore by 110 days (1 is included as Day 0, each factorial represents 10 day life cycle) all the Island's crop would be gone.
A= 90 hectares

20,502,000 banana plants
Plantation A
B= 124 hectares

28,247,200 banana plants
Plantation B
C= 12 hectares

2,733,600 banana plants
Plantation C
D= 356 hectares

81,096,800 banana plants
Plantation D
E= 486 hectares

110,710,800 banana plants
Plantation E
243,290,400 banana plants
All Banana Plantations
More Specifically
Plantation has 28,472,200 banana plants.

Therefore if 11!=39,916,800...
10!=3,628,800
11!-10!=36,288,000
Divide that by 10 days (aphid life cycle)=3,628,800 banana plants per day.
39,916,800-28,472,200= 11,444,600 banana plants
11,444,600/3,628,800=3.15
which means 4 days.

Therefore, 100 days minus the 4 days, our banana plantation would be wiped out after:
96 days
More Specifically
Plantation has 243,290,400 banana plants.

Therefore if 12!=479,001,600...
11!=39,916,800
12!-11!=439,084,800
Divide that by 10 days (aphid life cycle)=43,908,480 banana plants per day.
479,001,600-243,290,400= 235,711,200 banana plants
235,711,200/43,908,480=5.3
which means 6 days.
Therefore, 110 days minus the 6 days, our banana plantation would be wiped out after:
104 days
We know that each bunch of banana's weighs 40kg
Our Island's plantation= 28,247,200 banana plants
28,247,200x40kg=1,129,888,000kg per year.
Price: $994 tonne
1000kg in a tonne therefore 1,129,888,000/1000kg
1,129,888 tonnes
1,129,888x$994= $1,123,108,672 per year
$$ Revenue $$
$$Revenue$$
The Island's banana plantation=243,290,400 banana plants.
We know that each bunch of banana's weighs 40kg
243,290,400x40kg=9,731,616,000kg per year.
Price: $994 tonne
Each tonne has 1000kg, so 9,731,616,000/1000=9,731,616 tonnes per year.
9,731,616x$994=$9,673,226,304 per year.

Impact
If we contract the the Banana Bunchy Top Virus, within a matter of 96 days, the whole of our closest plantation will have contracted the virus, losing $1,123,108,672.

If the virus continues to spread, within 104 days, the islands whole banana crop will be infected costing the island $9,673,226,304.

This will be a devastating loss to the island's economy, possibly even causing the island to become bankrupt within 104 days.
How factorials work
Full transcript