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Scenario Planning - futuramb

Introduction to scenario planning, a management approach for managing uncertainy on different levels.

Martin Börjesson

on 2 October 2015

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Transcript of Scenario Planning - futuramb

Scenario Planning
an approach for managing uncertainty and understanding the bigger picture
Humans have shown a remarkable ability to learn and survive in an uncertain and changing environment...
an introduction to
The capability to manage an uncertain future seems to reside somewhere here
"Memory of the future"
David Ingvar, 1985
...with many unpredictable dangers
What if she asks about...?
What if she gets angry when I...?
What if we meet...?
What if she don't like...?
OK, I do it! But first I must...
We seems to have natural ability to imagine and analyze many possible situations - scenarios - before we act. The more uncertain we experience a situation the more our "memory of the future" is active in producing possible future situations. Based on those scenarios we take "informed" decisions about how to go about an uncertain situations.
...and learn about the uncertain future by systematically visualize several possible futures
...and what do we do when we tell each other stories?
We share and envision those
Key benefits with
Setting strategic direction
Catalyzing bold action
Facilitate collaborative learning about the organizational environment
Want to know more
about scenario planning?
scenario planning
American automotive
industry in the 1980:s
Example scenario set
Critical uncertainties
in the contextual
Why should we do it?
Avoiding single future blindness...
1. Research and formulate focal issue for the process
2. Exploree the driving forces
3. Identify critical

4. Develop scenarios
5. Strategic analysis
of consequences
scenario planning
Yes by implementing a
Key method 1:
Take an outside-in
Can organizations also be able to envision different futures to manage uncertainty?
P A Martin Börjesson
+46 704 262891
The ability to envision and anticipate different future possibilities seems to be a key capability for managing uncertainty...
Preparation for an
uncertain future
with each other and enhance the group
capability for scenario thinking
Full transcript