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Decisions, Decisions

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Daniel Crosby

on 8 December 2014

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Transcript of Decisions, Decisions

Decisions, Decisions
Determine the common saying
depicted in these verbal picture puzzles.
Split decision
One after another
So What?
Give an example of when you've
needed critical thinking.
Create a
of Critical Thinking...
"The important thing is not to stop questioning."
-Albert Einstein
Critical Thinking : verb
mode of thinking - about any subject, content, or
problem - in which the thinker improves the quality
of his or her thinking by skillfully taking charge of the
structures inherent in thinking and imposing intellectual
standards upon them
It’s better to be boldly decisive and risk being wrong than to agonize at length and be right too late.
– Marilyn Moats Kennedy
Define the problem
Explore alternatives (Critical Thinking)
Consider consequences (Risk)
Identify values
Decide and act
Examine results
“If I had an hour to save the world, I’d spend 55 minutes defining the problem and only 5 minutes finding the solution.”
- Albert Einstein
Gather facts
Careful with words – fat free, savings
Big picture/Small picture
Gather multiple perspectives
Reverse the problem
Can you market the problem?
Defining the Problem
Defining The Problem
What's YOUR problem?
Recognize assumptions
– learning to separate fact from opinion, viewing problems through others’ eyes

Evaluating information
– objectively, being careful to avoid “confirmation bias”

Draw conclusions
– making decisions, even if difficult, based on the information available
Explore Alternatives (R.E.D.)
You’re full of yourself.
You’re moody.
You don’t have all the facts.
You’re a follower.
You’re scared of being a loser.
You’re a control freak.
Optimism bias
- we tend to believe that we’ll do better than others

Cook College
- 15% more on positive, 20% less on negative

“Personal Fable”
You’re full of yourself
Affect heuristic
-good feelings lead to lower risk perception
We cannot perceive risk independent of mood

=examine fewer variables, chosen quickly, disregard contradictory info

=“analysis paralysis”, long decision times, inaction
You’re moody
Hawaii sharks

Availability heuristic-
judgments made by assessing available info

AIDS vs. Diabetes

More words with
as the first or third letter?
You don’t have all the facts
Dying in the bath or shower.
Victim of a shark attack.
Having a stroke.
Getting canonized.
Attacked by mountain lion.
Serious shaving injury.
Getting away with murder.
Death by flammable nightwear.
Rank from most to least likely
Murder -1 in 2
Stroke - 1 in 6
Fatal bath - 1 in 2,232
Shaving injury - 1 in 6,585
Saint - 1 in 20 million
Nightwear - 1 in 30 million
Mountain Lion - 1 in 32 million
Shark attack - 1 in 300 million
Survey says…
You’re a follower
C.) If adopted, 400 people will die for certain.
D.) If adopted, there is a 1/3 chance that no people will die and a 2/3 chance that 600 will die.
A.) If adopted, 200 people will be saved.
B.) If adopted, there is a 1/3 chance that 600 people will be saved and a 2/3 chance that none will be saved.
600 People With Deadly Virus
People are twice as unhappy about a loss as they are pleased by a gain.

A over B; 3 to 1.
D over C; 4 to 1.

People prefer the sure option when the problem is faced as a gain, but prefer the riskier option when the problem is framed as a loss.
You’re scared of being a loser
People often treat chance events as if they were skills and therefore under their control

50 lotto tickets - $8.67 for those who chose, $1.96 for no choice

Research shows that people overestimate their control on their organization’s stock
You’re a control freak
Manage optimism?
Negate emotion?
Ignore facts?
Fear of losing?
Social herding?
So what do I do?
– Traditional vs. Innovative
– Anal vs. Free-form
- Outgoing vs. Reserved
- Peace vs. Truth
- Worry vs. E.G.B.A.
Identifying Values
Each yes brings an infinite number of “no’s” which can lead us not to act. Remember, even choosing not to act is a choice.
Decide and Act
Was the outcome as desired?
For the reasons you suspected (e.g., 21)?
Would you do it again?
What would you do differently next time?
A zombie is a reanimated corpse.

Zombies have one mission: To feed on humans.

A person bitten by a zombie will become a zombie.

Zombies can only be stopped with a blow to the head.
Safest place to hide in the building?
Weapon of choice?
What would you put in your emergency kit?
Team leader?
Define the problem
Explore alternatives (Critical Thinking)
Consider consequences (Risk)
Identify values
Decide and act
Examine results
Think Critically (or Else)
First responder
Spouse and S.O.
"I'm sorry...."
What do you do?
Over 400,000 dead
4 years of war
Demanded surrender
"Total destruction" - no WMD
Make a case for pro/con

Sense of humor?
You Hate to Lose
What do monkeys with bananas and gambling
hedge fund managers have in common?
IT Dept. - SPAM filter
Manually open email
Best friend's wife
Keeping secrets from BFF
May impact child's well-being
Your Biggest Decision (Revisited)
Recognize Assumptions
- What biases might have gone undetected at the time?
Evaluate Information
- Where might you have gathered additional information?
Draw Conclusions
- Was your process sound? Was the outcome as desired?
Who are you?

Best gift?

Biggest decision?
Full transcript