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19-2 What Are Some Possible Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere?
Transcript of 19-2 What Are Some Possible Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere?
Result of last Ice Age. Only survive now because of mass
If they melt it could raise sea levels over 30 feet
1996-2007 Rate of ice loss doubled Threats of Climate Change Ice, Snow, and Seas *Key Problem: the projected rapid increase in the avg. temperature of the lower atmosphere during this century In last 30 years 10% of sea ice has melted. Melting has accelerated and by 2040 floating sea ice will be gone (NOAA). *Climate change will determine how much food can be grown and where, which areas will suffer from increased drought/flooding, and where people and wildlife will live Glaciers are melting at an unprecedented rate.
2025-80% South American glaciers gone
2060-2/3 of China's glaciers will be gone
407 million people rely on that water Effects:
Loss of land based ice would flood Western and Southern Europe and dry out Midwest America
Water, power, and food shortages *The U.S. National Academy of Sciences report laid out a worst-case scenario; the global climate system would reach an irreversible tipping point Al Gore Extreme Weather Will Increase in Some Areas Some areas will experience drought, heat waves, flooding, etc.
Due to these temperature extremes, people, crops and other animals may die
Controversial Questions: Will global warming increase the frequency and intensity of tropical storms?
Mark Saunders found that for every increase of about .8 degrees Celcius, the number of hurricanes increased by about 1/3 and the number of intense hurricanes increased by 45%
ex. Hurricane Katrina - massive flooding and many trees were destroyed, which added to global warming
Other reports have also predicted that global warming could, on average, increase the size and strength of Atlantic storms and their storm surges Global Warming is a Major Threat According to the 2007 IPCC report, changes in climate resulting form global warming are now affecting physical and biological systems on every continent and are altering ecosystem services in some areas
The same study concluded that 30% of the land-based plant and animal species assessed so far could disappear if the average global temperature exceed 1.5-2.5 degrees and 70% could disappear if it exceeds 3.5 degrees
Migratory Species can also be greatly affected by the changing climate
The species that are most likely to suffer disruption and species loss from climate change are corral reefs, polar seas ,coastal wetlands, high-elevation, mountaintops, and alpine and arctic tundra *WORST-CASE SCENARIO= ecosystems suddenly collapse, increased flooding, vast wildfires, dust bowls, rivers drying out due to mnt. glaciers melting, permanent extinction of up to half of the world's species, destructive storms, and rapidly spreading tropical diseases Sea Levels Are Rising Models suggest 1-2 meter rise sometime between 2050 and 2100
What would that do? *Threatens peace and economic and military security as competition for resources increases
*Mass migrations of people *U.S. and U.K. officials have called global warming the most eminent threat, even more concerning than terrorism Degradation or destruction of at least a third of world's coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs
Disruption of many coastal fisheries
Flooding of low lying areas and barrier islands especially in Eastern U.S. and Gulf Coast
Flooding of agricultural lowlands and deltas in areas where much of world's rice is grown
Contamination of coastal aquifers with saltwater and brackish water
Submergence of low-lying islands Scientists say we must reverse this before the irreversible happens Hi, I'm Al Gore...just wanted to say...told ya so Permafrost is likely to Melt 10-20% expected to melt this century
Methane in permafrost equals 50-60 times the amount emitted as carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels yearly Ocean Currents are Changing No short term effects but could possibly push Northeastern America, Northern Europe, and Japan into miniature Ice Ages Trees Will Also Suffer from Global Warming Trees release CO2 back into the atmosphere when they die
This would increase global warming, creating a positive feedback loop
Trees cannot migrate fast enough to escape global warming
Warmer climates can also increase the populations of insects and fungi that damage trees Uh-oh there goes Florida http://geology.com/sea-level-rise/ Climate Changes will Shift Areas Where Crops Can Be Grown Agricultural productivity may increase in some areas and decrease in others
Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at middle to high latitudes if global temperatures rise by 1-3 degrees Celcuis, but productivity would likely decrease at higher temperatures
Overall food production could still decrease due to unsuitable soils in the northern regions
The U.S. could receive 10-15% less rainfall
Scientists are working on creating genetically modified crops to help them tolerate the drier climate http://climate.nasa.gov/interactives/global_ice_viewer Climate Change will Threaten the Health of Many People Heat waves in same areas will be hotter, more frequent and longer
The people who will be most affected would be the older people, those with poor health, and the urban poor who cannot afford air conditioning
With a warmer climate less people would die from the cold
The increase in heat-related deaths would surpass the decrease in cold related deaths
A warmer planet would be a better place to 'incubate' and help to rapidly multiple insects, microbes, toxic molds, fungi that can make people sick, and plants that produce allergic pollens
It is predicted that tens of millions of people will be forced to migrate
A 2005 WHO study estimated that each year, climate change already contributes to the deaths of 150,000 people (about 410 people a day) and it could double by 2030 'Cool' Interactives Global Warming Effects Map:
Climate Connections: A Global Journey Map
National Geographic Interactive Global Warming Effects Map:
Smithsonian Climate Effects on Human Evolution:
Satellite Beach's Plan for Global Warming
http://spacecoastclimatechange.com/documents/100730_CSB_CRE_Final_Report.pdf *102 countries have been listed at high risk of becoming failed states in the next century *4 deg C. (7.2 deg F.): threaten human civilization as we know it/ much of it's biodiversity *If we do nothing about climate change this century scientists project warming could be 5 deg C. (9 deg F.) *5 deg C. could lead to a 33-50% decrease in global food production, a significant drop in human population, and widespread loss of biodiversity Climate= weather measurements averaged over decades, centuries, and millennia; based mostly on temperature and precipitation Weather= short-term daily and annual change *To reduce the harmful effects global warming could have on the earth we must act immediately by sharply reducing greenhouse gas emissions and by stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations in the 450-550 ppm range Severe Drought is Increasing:
The Browning of the Earth Drought= when evaporation from increased temperatures greatly exceeds precipitation for a prolonged period 1979-2002 earth's land (excluding Antarctica) experiencing severe drought increased from 15% to 30% Caused by changes in earth's climate and human activities (i.e. deforestation, greenhouse gas emissions) As the browning of the land increases VERY BAD THINGS WILL HAPPEN...DUH.