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The Future of Cloud Computing

Where the cloud has been, is and soon will be

rICh morrow

on 28 February 2013

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Transcript of The Future of Cloud Computing

"the Cloud" Many Thanks to Tom + Deb of DaVinci Prezi.com Our Panelists You But he's got a point... What *Is*
"the Cloud"? The Cloud is:
CPU, Disk, RAM, Network Cards are "virtualized" so that they can be used by many "virtual" computers resident on the machine
Software is "Virtualized" so you don't have / need your own copy of it, and many users "share" it.
Self Service
Infinite Scale
Utility-Based Pricing and Service When you only use / need
this much right now... Virtualization is taking a server or service + chopping it up into only the bits you need. By automating the build
of your server or service,
costs go way down. .com-era Capacity Planning "We plan on 5,000,000
users within 6 months"... We've been "virtualizing"
for 40+ years... why all the
hype now? What's new? Hardware Virtualization just started in the late 1990s
Broadband and Mobile
Hardware speeds & capacity
Amazon EC2 / Rackspace Cloud
The whole "SaaS" crowd... Salesforce, Google Apps eating competitor's lunch
Economy Then only pay for
what you need... ...but! we need to scale to:
50,000,000 users
900 employees "Cloud Pyramid" Sweet! Cloud Types:
Hybrid No problem...
Click... Viola! Now you have the big slice. Then you're gonna need a couple dozen of these... "the Cloud" takes you out of the
hardware / infrastructure business ...and gets you back in your
business so you can focus
on your differentiators. ...oh.. and a couple dozen of these to keep those running CEO tells the CTO... So the CTO tells the CEO... Before you know it,
you've become an
infrastructure company
rather than a Web company ...while at the same time,
customers often feel that
service goes way up. Cloud Landscape:
Present Day IaaS -- Servers PaaS -- Development SaaS -- Web Services Raw Computing Power IaaS examples:
Amazon's EC2
Rackspace Cloud
GoGrid Development Platform Give developers tools to
quickly build scalable,
secure services in a consistent
fashion. -- check "Heroku" User-facing Web Product Think:
Google Apps
Prezi.com :-) Cheap. "Leased". Servers.
Infinite Scale
Utility-based-pricing Your own hardware, in house
Limited Scale
Fixed Cost, Total Control Combination of the two....
Control where you need it,
Scale when you need it Hardware Virtualization Much of this is Open Source,
and / or free... You can Run Mac inside of Windows or Windows inside your Mac. You can take your single server, and multi-purpose it as 20-30 servers, each with a different role (load balancer, web server, database, etc). Virtual Desktops:
Serve all user workstations from
one computer Great for scale, security, and
QA / Web-Testing! IaaS SaaS You need to be a SysAdmin! DON'T Virtual Servers starting at $11/month
On Demand, self-service start-up, shutdown (autoscaling)
Hourly snapshots
Make HA* and High Volume Simple Companies like Standing Cloud and Turnkey Linux
provide you with "virtual appliances" that you can load
into the cloud. Some examples are:
CMS's (Drupal, Wordpress, Joomla!)
Wikis + Bulletin Boards
Bug Trackers, Time Trackers
Productivity Software Access Management for your Enterprise's
IaaS & SaaS Resources Free or extremely cheap services with focus on utility
"storage is free" & your data is available from any internet connection
Mobile & Cross-Platform is huge
Security & functionality updates happen automagically YourLocalDatacenter.com Common Themes:
Fast iterations
Users decide what's most valuable

LOTS of opportunity, still...
Skillset / Technologies
Organizational / Business Open Source Technologies & Mindsets.
Client-Side technologies for RIA (jQuery, AJAX, etc).
NoSQL Databases, Data mining. Technologists will need: Businesses need to: Include some R&D for cloud
Have Performance-Based aspect to them
CIO & CTO working tight to investigate + leverage Cloud for cost savings.
Move some $$$ from IT into marketing
Goal: Outsource all but core competency Budgets need to: Winning skills to hire for: Open Source Technologies & Mindsets.
"Soft" skills like Curiousity, Speed, Raw Intelligence will overtake "hard" skills like specific languages.
ONLY HIRE CORE COMPETENCE. Outsource all else. Infinitely-scalable telephony via HTTP The Future of Cloud Computing rICh morrow
Principal Enginer, Jan 10, 2011
DaVinci Institute
Presentation Online at: http://quicloud.com/blog/ "The Cloud" is using virtualization and automation to provide
users with self-service computing products that provide infinite
scale at low cost. Businesses need *lots* of products & services.. Pens, Paper, Phones, Furniture,
Facilities... Why are we still building
'non-core' Computer
Hardware & Software in-house 2.5 MILLION desktops are
now virtual.
1 physical server
1 single point of failure
non-optimized for security or speed 1-5 Years from now... Everyone now has access to supercomputing power.... 5 - 15 years from now 15+ years from now
Trying to make the DMV as efficient as SalesForce.
Vivek Kundra, "America's CIO" leading the charge. Government Healthcare Implanted monitoring for early-stage disease or conditions.

Medical record ownership will get sorted out. You will likely be in charge of / responsible for your Identity.
Some agency* will step up to provide online Identity "lock boxes". Online Identity Management Cloud Computing today is what the electric grid was 100 years ago

Every electricity consumer built & maintained *their own* power station.

Think of how embedded Electricity is in your life today. Robotics and AI Some data (or precision) intensive high-paying career field (likely Airline Pilots or Surgeons) will make news as "With robots doing most of the work, can we actually create a society that takes advantage of the leisure that robots can provide?" Consumer / Individual Expectations of "free" or low-cost.
Telepresence common and freelancing growing.
Thin clients / Virtual Desktops are the norm. Just ask Pete Warden,
who crunched 215 *million* FB profiles in the cloud.
using: 80 Small EC2 instances
taking: 11 hours
costing: ~$110 Reworking of the Education System Network / Broadband We are rapidly running out of IP addresses + Phone Numbers.

US, especially needs "bigger pipes".

Net Neutrality ABSOLUTELY required to keep innovation pace. Suggested Media:
Nick Carr: the Big Switch
John Brockman: This Will Change Everything
Neil Stephenson: The Diamond Age
Marshall Brain: "Manna", "Robotic Nation", "the Day you Discard your Body" (short online novels)
Tom Frey on Business Colonies: http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2010/11/business-colonies-a-study-of-structure-organization-and-the-evolution-of-work/
3D Printing: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3D_printing -AND- http://fabathome.org/
Isaac Asimov: I, Robot (also a movie)
Blade Runner, the movie
Minority Report, the movie Think how you can "give it away".
Empower IT with more ownership (Biz+Tech Savvy leaders).
Learn how to launch in Beta + have higher risk tolerance. Most future predictions rely on computing power increasing per the Cloud stores & serves most of your digital data.
Virtual Bookstores replacing the Physical. Cloud Technologies Become Ubiqutous Personalized Medicine
Data crunching in the cloud brings first cures Healthcare Improvements "The Age of the Individual" Your computer gets as smart as you 10 quadrillion instructions per second = human brain.
In 10-20 years, computers will get there. We all learn to speak "human" Language is a complex data problem, full of nuance, culture, and history.
Computer assisted, Functioning Language translation = a TRUE WWW. Virtual / Physical starts to blur Upload YOU into the cloud Human labor will be more efficient via "business colonies" (ala Hollywood) Humans as "gears" will
become a thing of the past. This Definition should cover it: Including (gasp!) Micro$oft's Motzarts no longer working in Sweat Shops Smart Computers that "know you". Education: 100,000 years ago Education: 100 years ago Education: Today It's medieval Motzarts no longer working in Sweat Shops Age of the Chimp Age of the Cro-mag Age of Man Complex data problems are childs play Check out "Word Lens"
iPhone app... Now it gets really interesting... We may get to answer the question
"What happens when I don't *have to* work?" And maybe we can focus on what
we're good at or enjoy... We can and will be able to let
the robots do the work they're
good at... True AI Robots for servants, caretakers... possibly even companions. Individuals can "rent" factories & fabrication facilities "Reputation" will become the new "currency". Govt's will become less and less relevant... Some may be overthrown (perhaps China first?). Choose Virtual or Physical One major caveat... Moore's Law Moore's Law: # of transistors we can fit on a chip will double every 12-24 months. or, should we say... Age of the Robot The first wave of robotics
(pretty dumb) The next wave: "smart" Gov't computing is silo'd,
riddled with waste and duplication Building "Gov Clouds"
provides flexibility & reduces waste Gonna need to migrate to IPv6.Some consolidation/reclamation may occur. % of IP Addresses available for allocation <- 2010... 3% left! US is seriously lagging (pun intended)... (at least the VCs now know where all thier money went -- and yes, we used one or two as a Quake server) it's outsourced to robots. There we are! --Nick Carr,
"the Big Switch" And also...
Expectations of Universal access (from mobile, etc).
Point + Click Cloud SDKs (ala Wordpress).
Businesses will be created & destroyed based on Security. Business Colony: "An evolving new kind of organizational structure designed around matching talent with pending work projects"

Read more at: http://www.futuristspeaker.com/2010/11/business-colonies-a-study-of-structure-organization-and-the-evolution-of-work/ ...we'll be able to do this faster than we can cure major health problems And also...
Config Management like Chef & the more dated Puppet
Single Sign on (products like Symlified.com) and other "aggregator" and "centralizer" products like RightScale, CloudRows, etc.
"Private Cloud" technologies like Eucalyptus and CloudStack Monitoring and CI solutions such as Monitis, BrowserMob, Pingdom, etc. (as the organization iterates quicker, changes that break the codebase or product will be caught faster)
Dedicate time to research
Break the "Ops" out of "DevOps" AND --> Business-and-Tech Savvy leaders who are willing to take risks"
Jack of all Trades" folks who know a little about a lot And also:
Security Zone Management
Rackspace now has "managed" Cloud hosting Real-time provisioning of Public and Private Clouds.
Heavy Focus on Open Architectures And... * - likely candidates: Banks, Government (Social Security Administration?), or Private (Facebook?) "3D printing" already exists, today! Humans really desire recognition, money is just our clumsy way of realizing it now. Legal Battles, Precedents
One or more Giants will fall The victory of Open Source Establish their own middle-classes.
Unencumbered by pre-cloud infrastructure, mentalities.
Absolutely require the growth & scale of the cloud. China & India Awake Napoleon on China:
"let her sleep... for when she wakes, she will shake the world." Is anyone really using
"the Cloud"? Virtual just means "not physical" Automation provides: Look forward by looking back... Several virtual servers
No single point of failure
Each server optimized for it's specific task High Availability, Scalability: Fragile but easy / cheap: *"HA" = "High Availability" Cost in Physical: at least $25K
Cost in Cloud: ~$150/mo To Succeed in the Cloud: Perhaps the biggest question we'll have to answer: --Marshall Brain, "Robots in 2015" Here's education going forward Hey Baby!
My number is 101101011110... Call me... Threatened, perhaps? Pretty much all of you are... Dave Jilk,
CEO Dave Jilk,
S Dave Jilk,
CEO Standing Cloud John Sheehan,
Developer Evangelist, Twilio Combination of the two
Control where you need
Scale when you need 2nd wave:
more personal Joel Wampler,
Founding Systems Architect, Standing Cloud
Full transcript