Transforming transport for low emissions and cheap, universal mobility

But...

Incentives for EVs

Plug-in EVs

AAA submission

Government context

Fuel efficiency standards

Outline

About this seminar

• Discrepancy between laboratory and on-road fuel efficiency results

• Car prices will increase by more than the MFVE estimates

• We need a longer lead time to implement the standards

• Standards may not be the lowest cost emission reduction strategy

• Current Australian emission standards do not include CO2

• Draft Regulation Impact Statement (Dec 2016) by the MFVE proposes 3 options for average efficiency targets (to be phased in by 2025)

• 105g CO2/km

• 119g CO2/km

• 135g CO2/km

• International comparison from the International Council on Clean Transportation (next slide)

• Who we are

• We will ensure time for questions and push-back (will be minuted)

• We will feed comments to the ACT process for Zero Net Emissions

• We are taking the climate imperative as read

• This Seminar is not about Light Rail

• Uptake of EVs will have a far greater impact on carbon emissions (when charging from renewable-sourced electricity)

• Currently just one vehicle in 700 is an EV

• The Bloomberg forecasts:

• Projected battery cost declines

• Total Cost of Ownership will be lower than that of petrol cars by 2022-2025

• Further up-beat forecasts by Morgan Stanley, Exane BNP Paribas, CEO of Ford

• After the ACT achieves 100% renewable electricity (2020) its highest source of emissions will be transport

• Current ACT policies to encourage lower emission vehicles

• 2014 Low emission vehicle strategy discussion paper

• Minister Rattenbury’s media release of 6/12/2016

• Federal context: Ministerial Forum on Vehicle Emissions (MFVE)

• About this seminar

• Government context

• Fuel efficiency standards

• Electric vehicles

• Autonomous vehicles

• Questions and discussion

• United States: US$7500 federal rebate

• Portugal: €5000

• United Kingdom: £5000

• Other countries: Canada, China, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden

• Australia: registration and stamp duty incentives only, and only in some states

Climateworks has rebutted these claims

Nissan Leaf

What we need

Hyundai Ioniq 2017

Tesla Model 3

Chevy Bolt 2017 EV

Barriers to EV ownership

goo.gl/oBEfrb

• Announced, but no deliveries until last quarter of 2017

• More than 400,000 order reservations

• Expected price: US$35,000

• Expected range: 350 km

Transport emissions -

costs to health

• On sale in Australia (ca 700 sales)

• More than 250,000 sold worldwide

• Priced at $40,000

• Range: 170 km (2016 model) or 135 km (2014 model)

• A new model will be unveiled in Sep 2017

• Dave Southgate's e-book

• Three varieties: electric, hybrid, plug-in hybrid

• On sale in US, UK, Asia

• Price: US$29,500 (Electric version)

• Range: 200 km (Electric version)

• Australian launch: late 2017 - early 2018

BITRE Working Paper 65, 2005

• On sale in several US states

• Price: US$37,495

• Range: 380 km

• Has won several awards including 2017 North American Car of the Year

• Owners report difficulties in charging it efficiently on longer journeys

News on EVs

Annual "early deaths", Australia 2005:

between 900 - 2000

Economic cost of morbidity:

between $1.5 - $3.8 billion

• Living in remote localities

• Sale price

• The charging challenge – especially if you aim to take longish trips and don’t have a Tesla

• If you want to tow anything

• For many people an EV will function best in a two-car family, with the EV preferred for all local trips

URL of this presentation

Royal College of Physicians (UK), 2016

• A national “EV Roadmap” with targets

• Up-front time-limited purchase incentives (preferably uniform across the states and territories)

• Investment in charging infrastructure

• Exemption for EVs from the Luxury Car Tax?

• 40,000 deaths annually (UK) attributable to out-door air pollution

• Primary source is diesel and petrol engines (nitrogen dioxide, particulates, ozone)

Every breath we take: the lifelong impact of air pollution, 2016

Transforming transport for low emissions and

cheap, universal mobility

Warwick Cathro and Kent Fitch

Renewables Innovation Hub

4 May 2017

GM Bolt EV with "Cruise" automation

Vehicle summoned with smart-phone app

Motivations

Autonomous cars

Why does this matter ?

3

2

1

PALO ALTO, Calif., Aug. 16, 2016

Ford today announces its intent to have a high-volume, fully autonomous SAE level 4-capable vehicle in commercial operation in 2021 in a ride-hailing or ride-sharing service.

Current public transport:

poor service at high social and financial cost

Universal, egalitarian, inexpensive and

efficient public transport

is a social good

Fully autonomous electric vehicles are very likely to be a commercial reality between 2020 and 2025

Hardware: now

Software: 2018

"sooner than you might think"

2019

2020

{

• Google spin-off

• Readying 500 minivans for service test in Phoenix AZ

• Partnered with Honda

• Low patronage, 65% customer satisfaction

• On time services - 71% (5 minute tolerance)

• Fares cover ~ 15% of costs

• Community subsidy of ~ $120M per year

• Each passenger boarding costs ACTION $7.96

• ~1.3 boardings / one-way journey

• Each journey costs ACTION ~$10.35

Level 4 - a shared fleet servicing a defined area:

• on-demand

• door-to-door

• 24 x 7

For:

• commuters, students, shoppers, visitors, ...

• those who can't drive

Slow and expensive transport is an unproductive drain on the economy and contributes to personal stress.

Better mobility for all citizens has flow-on effects throughout the community and economy.

2021

"Majority of rides by 2021"

[2014 data]

• Motivation - why are they interesting?

• What do simulations of shared fleets show?

• Risks and their context

Greenblatt and Saxena:

6

4

5

Improved safety

Reduced pollution and congestion

Better urban environment

Driver error is responsible for 90-95% of road accidents

• shared fleet of AV's allows vehicle "right-sizing": 55% saving in energy use compared to a standard BEV (Nissan Leaf)

• additional savings from “platooning”, optimally routing trips, and smoother acceleration and braking  "incremental but they do add up"

Zero tail-pipe emissions

Car sharing in peak periods

Coordinated traffic

Reduce land and buildings dedicated to car-parking

Better use of existing infrastructure

Savings on road construction/maintenance

Encourage walking "one way", "part way"

Nature Climate Change, 6 July 2015

Making better places: Autonomous vehicles and future opportunities

Rachel Skinner (WSP | Parsons Brinckerhoff)

Nigel Bidwell (Farrells)

April 2016

Popularity

of

SAEVs

Road Trauma

Deaths, 2016: 1,300

Hospitalisations, 2013: 35,000

Economic cost, 2013: $27 Billion

BITRE Road trauma Australia Statistical Summary 2015

Department of Infrastructure and Regional Development

Autonomous

driving

Electric

cars

Car

sharing

"BCG’s conservative estimate is that 23% to 26% of miles driven in the United States, or about 800 billion to 925 billion miles, could be traveled in shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) by 2030"

ACT Government:

April 2017

2014 land value of each on-surface car parking space:

• Civic - $93k

• town-centre - $18k

Each costs $500 per year to maintain.

BCG, World Economic Forum,

City of Boston and MIT

Simulation of road journeys in downtown Boston

(35km of roads)

Ann Arbor Model

Key assumptions

• Trip origins/destinations uniformly distributed within a square

• Trips not shared

• Purpose built, small and cheap autonomous vehicles ($US9,000) financed at 5%

Results

• Cost per trip-mile: 15 cents (US)

• 95% of trips start within 1 minute

Canberra Model

Key assumptions

• Realistic trip origins/destinations based on population and workplace distribution

• "Tidal" flows peak period flows

• 750K trips/weekday

• Average length: 13.4km

• Cars shared in weekday peaks: 6-10am, 3-7pm

• Travel time off-peak: Google est + 20%

• Travel time peak: Google est + 30%

• Pick-up/set-down: 1 min per person

Commercial autonomous EVs

• $40,000 financed at 10%

• 3 year life, zero residual value

• 4 seats

• 240km theoretical range, but operated between 25% and 80% of charge

• 6km/kWH

• Extra 5% of fleet purchased as spares

• Maintenance costs $2000pa + 2.5 cents/km

Charging stations

• $15,000 financed at 10%

• 10 year life, zero residual value

• 75kW, 80% efficient (including car)

• Electricity 20 cents/kWH

• Rent and maintenance $3000pa

Service Requirement

• 24x7, door-to-door, no pre-booking

• 98% requests satisfied within 1 minute

• 99.9% satisfied within 3 minutes

Canberra Model

Key results

• 23,000 cars

• 1,500 charging stations

• 2.5 GWH/weekday

• Peak 150MW

• >98% requests <= 1 min

• >99.9% requests <= 3 min

• Longest wait: < 10 min

[Canberra: 7-10 GWH/day ]

Given these fares:

Off peak Peak

Flag Fall 20c 45c

Per km rate 20c 25c

Cost average $2.88 $3.79

13.4km trip

Operating Surplus

Initial capital costs (borrowed)

Cars: 24150 @ $40K $966m

23,000 + 5% spares

Chargers: 1500 @ $15K $23m

Misc capital works $11m

$1 billion

Steady-state annual cash flow (summary)

~ $78m/pa

Income

Fares $768m

Expenditure

Chargers

Repayments 3.4m

Rent & Maint 4.5m

$8m

Cars

Repayments 370m

Power 167m

Maint/Clean 99m

Rego/Insur/

Comms/Admin 47m

$683m

Total $692m

Default 750K journey/day simulation

Enough to pay for

• 75,000 off-peak journeys per day

• hundreds of staff to provide mobility assistance

SAEV life-cycle cost estimates

US cents/km

Burns 2013 9 - 25

Barclay 2016 18

Deloitte 2016 19 - 29

Rocky Mountain Inst 2016 19

KPMG 2016 11

Zhang/Guhathakurta 2016 8 - 31

Loeb/Kockelman 2017 25 - 52

goo.gl/oBEfrb

The opportunity for Canberra

"Isn't this risky?"

Financial summary, one vehicle, weekday

The progress of technology is inexorable.

It will come whether you like it or not, and you can choose to stay wedded to the past or you can prepare for the future.

Universal access to 24x7, on-demand, door-to-door mobility.

$

$

Risky compared to...

Revenue

Expenses

• Entrenching social disadvantage aggravated by poor access to affordable and efficient transport?

• Experimenting with social outcomes of declining mobility in an aging population?

Fares 103

Pang Kin Keong

Singaporean Ministry of Transport

Reduced travel times, accidents, greenhouse gases and spending on transport and roads.

“

• Not abating transport-related greenhouse gases?

• Not releasing land dedicated to car-parks/garages?

Capital & interest 44

Power & charger 22

Rego/insurance/

comms/admin 6

Maintenance 12

In Paris we are transforming our transport system to prioritize the health and welfare of our citizens.

If managed properly, the arrival of autonomous vehicles will speed up that transformation whilst also helping cities to deliver on the ambition of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change.

• Not addressing $30b+ annual Australian health costs of road crashes and pollution?

A better urban environment.

• Not addressing $200m annual (2015) cost of congestion in Canberra?

”

• Expanding and duplicating transport infrastructure rather than efficiently using what's there?

Anne Hidalgo

Mayor of Paris

84

Weekday surplus: ~$19

Weekend-day loss: ~$12

Annual surplus: ~$3400 per vehicle

http://canberraautonomouscars.info/sim.html

http://canberraautonomouscars.info/sim.html

http://canberraautonomouscars.info/sim.html

http://canberraautonomouscars.info/sim.html

Daily commute cost (typical 13.4km commute)

ACTION bus: $5.40 farebox + $15.30 subsidy =

$20.70/day (+ travel time cost)

Private car: $26.66/day

(including parking in Parliamentary Triangle)

Autonomous fleet: $7.58/day

Autonomous fleet savings over 220 commutes/year

ACTION bus: $2900 per commuter per year

Private car: $3200 per commuter per year

(assuming 1.2 commuters per private car)

(excludes reduced costs of travel time)

Commercial and Legal

http://canberraautonomouscars.info/model.html

http://canberraautonomouscars.info/model.html

• Ownership (Gov / private)

• Monopoly / competition

• Fares, subsidies, community obligations

• Liability for accidents

• Liability for loss of service

• Privacy

Technology

Sharing the roads

Other economic benefits:

• improved mobility

• reduced congestion

• productive travel time

• better use of garage & car-park space

• better utilisation of road infrastructure

Assumption #1 (unrealistic higher limit)

Disposal of cars and buses used to service 750K/workday trips, replaced by SAEV fleet:

Annual saving: $750m

Assumption #2:

SAEV fleet reduces road trauma and emissions costs by 70%

(from annually ~ $30B to $10B)

Canberra's share: 1.7% of $20B: $330m

• With other vehicles, connected and un-connected, bikes, pedestrians

• Optimising flows, minimising congestion

• EVs

• Autonomous vehicles

• Fleet management

• Fleet diversity (2-seaters, 4-seaters, minivans, wheelchair-accessible)

• Government car related income (rego, parking, fines, ...)

• Existing public transport and taxi

• Existing car-dealerships, ICE mechanics, insurance, petrol stations, car-parks...

• Location of charging stations

Disruption

Capacity

• Predicting acceptance and uptake

• Estimating minute-by-minute demand

• Servicing large but predictable demands such as emptying Canberra stadium after Raiders game

• System security

• Journey sharing during peak

• Children traveling alone

• Child seats

• Boot space

• Wheel-chairs and assistance

Passenger safety

• 2.5 GWH/day for 750K journeys

• Point Henry aluminum smelter: 8 GWH/day

• Canberra (2013): 8 GWH/day

• Off peak charging requires bigger batteries

Electricity supply