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This presentation resulted from an invitation by the Chartered Institute of IT to talk to their members. If you wish to contact Richard, please use email address richard@boxcutter.co.uk

richard brown

on 30 January 2014

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Transcript of BCS

Nobody needs more than 19Mbps broadband by 2023...
Discussions by Richard Brown

29th January 2014
...do they?
Broadband Stakeholder Group (BSG)* released a report in Nov 2013 stating:
"..the median household will require bandwidth of 19 Mbps by 2023..."
and suggest even the top 1% will only require 35-39Mbps
*BSG advise Westminster on broadband issues
19Mbps - what does that let you do right now?
Netflix recommend 12Mbps for 3D and 5Mbps for HD
SKYPE recommend 4Mbps for group video calls
Microsoft recommend a 1.5Mbps minimum for XBox One users
BBC recommend 3.5Mbps for HD iPlayer
Citrix recommend 0.5Mbps for office printing on thin client
Chrysler recommend that a medium dealership requires minimum 7Mbps to just use their online resources (parts, vehicle sales etc)
So, 19Mbps looks like a lot, even in business
Making decisions based on this type of data has real implications
The Welsh Government have sent Press releases stating that:
96% of Welsh population will have access to broadband at 24mbps+
£58m of Welsh Government money will be given to BT to facilitate
4% of Welsh population will have access to minimum broadband speeds of 2mbps+
£57m of BDUK funding will be given to BT to facilitate
£89.5m of ERDF funding will be given to BT to facilitate
£205m implications
This isn't just 'another report'
This data is influencing decisions right now
Huge sums are being gambled on such data being correct
Whilst not unique, the Superfast Cymru contract does not enable subscribers to connect to broadband, it is simply a contract for BT to enable exchanges and/or cabinets that potentially serve subscribers.

Little consideration is made to the ability of these exchanges and/or cabinets to be able to actually deliver subscribers.
Government are planning the delivery of infrastructure to enable speeds in excess of BSG predictions, with public funds investment exceeding £1bn
So, we should all be perfectly satisfied then, shouldn't we?
"Little consideration is made to the ability of these exchanges and/or cabinets to be able to actually deliver subscribers."
Does this actually matter? Surely it isn't that important if the odd one or two cannot get the best speeds - that's life!

the key to the future of broadband
When ubiquity or predicted near ubiquity is achieved, investment follows:
UK motorway journeys in 1957: 0
UK motorway journeys in 2010: 61bn
UK mobile phone ownership in 1970: 0%*
UK mobile phone ownership in 2012: 94%*
*Mobile Operators Association
Cars owned in UK in 1971: 19m
Cars owned in UK in 2012: 31m*
Android released
On release by Google in 2007, Android had barely a handful of users (and most of those were Google employees!)

Unlike other mobile phone operating systems, Android is free
First release of Android handset
HTC Dream was released in 2008, which was the first handset to use Android as it's operating system
Google launch own handsets
Google's first handsets utilising the Android platform, arrived in 2010

The handsets were built by HTC
Google play isn't just for fun
In 2013, Google play (formerly the Android market) reaches 1m available applications (apps) for Android users to download
Play gets serious
In 2013 Google Play:
Pays more to application developers in Q3 than in whole of 2012
1.5m Android handsets are activated each day
Applications downloaded from Play exceed 50bn
900m activated Android handsets is passed
First $1bn application companies are recognised
How Android became ubiquitous
What has Android got to do with broadband?
It's another driver for the use of broadband
The success of Android demonstrates the economy of ubiquity
It shows what happens when you allow control to be lost
Android has no predicted usage (median or otherwise), and has grown accordingly
"Usage must be predicted if the right infrastructure is to be installed"
The industrial revolution was built on steam.
The data revolution will be built on fast ubiquitous communications infrastructure
There is a better way for Government to intervene, than to buy a fibre network
The money that the UK Government is spending right now will not result in a fast ubiquitous network
Welsh Government as an example
Has stated that 96% of Welsh population will have access to superfast broadband - contract with BT is for 95%
Has issued a press release stating that 100k premises can now access superfast broadband as a result of the BT contract - no current evidence that this is true
First Minister claimed 'tens of thousands' of miles of fibre would be installed - 10k is BT's estimate
Welsh Ministers are using the contract to influence marketing and wholesale pricing, in contravention of EU law, and Ofcom regulations.
Welsh Government have granted over £100k (outside of Broadband Support Schemes) to just one Welsh ISP, and thrown another to the wolves
The result of poor quality advice (in this case from BSG) is that poor quality information informs poor quality decisions
There is a better way than asking a BT Group funded body to give advice to the Government about what BT Group should be doing:

Incentivising the delivery of the desired outcome, via tax breaks etc, would deliver only what is required - a fast, ubiquitous communications network
Does it really matter how?
Not at all, but it does matter
By allowing a misinformed, and ill equipped government to purchase infrastructure, the outcome can only mirror the predicted poor outcome of the Welsh contract.
have received a great deal of Press
and not without good reason.
It's not just me that thinks there is a better way...
Independent of any other ISP - an ISP in their own right
1Gbps symmetrical is their only service (£30 per month)
To date, have not been in receipt of any public funding
In a rural location that gets poor broadband from other suppliers
Future usage considerations are key to the service offering
Clear understanding that download is only half the equation
A true fibre broadband service with FTTH/P not FTTC
Is a ubiquitous by design service with relatively low entry point of cost for subscribers
FTTC is not the same as FTTH/P
FTTC - Fibre to the Cabinet - this is what Government is buying right now
FTTH - Fibre to the home
FTTP - Fibre to the premises
FTTC does not take sufficient account of the connection between the cabinet and the user - in many locations (not just rural) this is either too long/too old/too noisy to deliver superfast speeds.
This stuff matters
Singapore already create more tech companies per week than UK
- their population is 5.2m, UK is 63m
None of the Android app $1bn companies are in the UK
- there is one in Norway
the data revolution will have the same historical impact as the industrial revolution did - the UK led the industrial revolution
superfast broadband isn't about what we can see is coming, it is about what will come because we have superfast broadband, that everyone can access
Our collective future is bound by the ability to move massive data requirements.
User requirements are no longer relevant, freeing the huge potential for inward investment that comes from ubiquitous superfast (and better) broadband will be the key to our economic future
The future of broadband is not the increased use of social media, or streaming 4K movies
The data revolution is going to happen, with or without us, and whether we are ready or not
psssstttt.....it already started.
19Mbps will be enough for the median user in 2023
If we continue the way that we are, with the lack of vision that we are displaying, very few people in the UK will ever require more than the predicted median usage
Giving money to BT is not the problem. BT is a perfectly good company. What we are expecting BT to do with our money could finish the UK as a first world economy.
Predicting usage is pointless
- enabling usage is essential
'Bill Broadband' is Bill Murphy who is the MD Next Gen Access at BT
This Twitter exchange went on a little bit
Amy Walker Joins in
Ed Vaizey didn't
want to get left out

There's a constant
battle to convince
anyone who will
listen, that the
BDUK program
that is delivering Premises Passed is the same as a program that delivers tangible outcomes in a ubiquitous manner.

Premises passed
(particularly in rural areas)
are all too often
Premises passed by

Full transcript