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The 1979 Oil Crisis

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by

David Miller

on 19 November 2013

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Transcript of The 1979 Oil Crisis

Conclusion
later: 1980's oil glut
Iran's oil production struggles
America's economy powers along
political impact of crisis
consumers' role
Popular Opinion in the United States
Dramatically decreasing confidence in the economy as a whole
Decreased confidence in political leaders, for example (Carter, Congress)
real crisis or manufactured for oil companies and their profits?
Long gas lines across the country
Public acknowledgment of an 'energy crisis'
Fear of inflated cost of living, particularly around heating prices
Crisis in the United States
The 1979 Oil Crisis: Iran and America
Second oil and gas crisis of the decade, preceded by the 1973 crisis caused by the Yom Kippur War.
Introduction
"Crisis of confidence"
Jimmy Carter
July 15, 1979
Shortages and Lines
Oil line in New York City, 1979
David Miller, Sarah June, Florence Kuhl, Meredith Toman, Madeline Ford
History 1067
11/18/13

Lasting Impact?
Constant Worry
Iran's Role
US-Iran Relations
It was a demand, rather than supply, driven crisis. The decrease in supply in 1979 was comparatively minor to others throughout history, and certainly not large enough to warrant the crisis in the United States that resulted.
The long-term economic impact on the United States was not critical, but likely had important political and social effects.
Instructions
:

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Hoax?
Political Responses

Social welfare policies to aid families facing rising oil prices
no extensive recession or downturn
political impact - on Carter presidency and on oil policy
Not as large a price increase as several other oil crises/ issues
Oil Production
'Gas Emergency'
CBS News, August 1979
`
Argument
The 1979 Oil Crisis challenges standard understandings of rational economic behavior. Consumer confidence (defined broadly) is critical in the 1979 crisis, and guides American demand for oil ("precautionary demand," Killian 2009).
Point 2
Bibliography
Argument
Spoken and Written
Kilian, Lutz. "Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do they matter for the US economy?." The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 2 (2008): 216-240.
Charts
Kilian, Lutz. "Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do they matter for the US economy?." The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 2 (2008): 216-240. Figure 5.
Consumer Confidence Index. Conference Board. Web. 18 November 2013. http://www.conference-board.org/
Kilian, Lutz. "Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do they matter for the US economy?." The Review of Economics and Statistics 90, no. 2 (2008): 216-240. Figure 11
Introduction
Pictures
Associated Press.
Energy Crisis 1973.
1973. Perkasie, PA.
AP Images.
Web. 18 November 2013.
Associated Press.
President Jimmy Carter.
1979. Steubenville, OH.
AP Images
. Web. 18 November 2013.
Iran's Role
The Crisis in the US
Spoken and Written
Frank Thompson. Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States, Jimmy Carter, 1979, Book 1: January 1 to June 22, 1979. Washington: Government Printing Office. Accessed Online. 17 November 2013. 622-623.
Light, Alfred R. "The Governors' Push for Emergency Energy Powers."
Publius
10.1 (1980): 57-67.
JSTOR
. Web. 14 Nov. 2013.
Associated Press. "States Get Carter OK to Shift Gas."
Eugene Register-Guard
3 July 1979: 1.
Google News
. Web. 17 Nov. 2013.
United Press International. "Shortage spreads - Gas line-ups lenghten."
Ottawa Citizen
21 May 1979: 48. Web. 17 Nov 2013.
Popular Opinion in the US
Spoken
“62% in Poll Find Recession Likely.” New York Times 18 Feb. 1979, pg. 64. 18 Nov. 2013. <ProQuest Historical Newspapers>.
“Consumer Poll Finds Unease.”New York Times 15 Feb 1979, pg. D. 18 Nov. 2013. <ProQuest Historical Newspapers>
Lasting Impact?
Chart
Barsky, Robert, and Lutz Kilian. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. No. w10855. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.arsky, Robert, and Lutz Kilian. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. No. w10855. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.
Spoken
Barsky, Robert, and Lutz Kilian. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. No. w10855. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.
Kilian, Lutz. "Exogenous oil supply shocks: how big are they and how much do they matter for the US economy?." The Review of Economics and Statistics 90.2 (2008): 216-240.
"Job Performance Ratings for President Carter." Roper Center Public Opinion Archives . Web. 18 Nov 2013. <http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Carter>.

Opinions concerning President Carter
1
1979 Revolution led to huge changes in Iran, including the substantial shutdown of oil production both instability and strikes
Disruptions continued in the 1980s from the Iran-Iraq War
The Revolution substantially affected Iran's relationship with the United States
Opinions Concerning President Carter
Picture
Walker, Diana, and Diana Walker. President Jimmy Carter and the Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, put their best face forward with their wives, Rosalynn Carter and Farah Diba, in Washington, D.C.. 1977. Photograph. The University of Texas at AUstin: Reading America's Photos. Web. 18 Nov 2013. <http://www.cah.utexas.edu/photojournalism/detail.php?nickname=carter&picid=6>
Spoken
Clymer, Adam. “Carter's Standing Drops to New Low in Times-CBS Poll.” New York Times 10 June 1979, pg. 1. 18 Nov. 2013. <ProQuest Historical Newspapers>.
“Gallup Poll Ratings for President And Congress Sink to New Lows.” New York Times, 21 June 1979, pg. B10. 18 Nov. 2013. <ProQuest Historical Newspapers>.
Robert, Steven V. “Poll Shows Carter's Rating On Foreign Policy Is Down: Use of Force in .... ”New York Times 2 Mar 1979, pg. A4. 18 Nov. 2013. <ProQuest Historical Newspapers>.
"Job Performance Ratings for President Carter." Roper Center Public Opinion Archives . Web. 18 Nov 2013. <http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu.ezp-prod1.hul.harvard.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating_detail.cfm?allRate=True&presidentName=Carter>.
Shortages and Lines
Picture
Krulwich, Sara. 1979. Photograph. New York Times. 18 Nov 2013. <http://cityroom.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/09/around-odd-even-license-plate-rules-a-history-of-impatience/?_r=0>.
Video
CBS 6 Video Vault: 1979 - August - Gas Emergency. 1979. Video. Youtube. 18 Nov 2013. <http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H3K1WwqZH4>.
Hoax
Huck, Gary . 1979. Cartoon. Gary Huck Cartoons. 18 Nov 2013. <http://www.solidarity.com/hkcartoons/huckoiltoon.html>.
Spoken
Witt, Evan. "Energy crisis still doubted by public." Free Lance-Star [Fredricksburg] 04 May 1979, 5. Print. <http://news.google.com/newspapers?id=TuNNAAAAIBAJ&sjid=mYsDAAAAIBAJ&pg=3366,571031&dq=energy-crisis&hl=en>.
Parisi, Anthony J. “Poll Shows Doubts Over Energy Shortage: Most See Crisis As Fabricated ...” New York Times 06 Nov 1979, pg. D6. 18 Nov. 2013. <ProQuest Historical Newspapers>.
Price Increase
Point 1
Point 3
Beginning of long downturn in oil production
Iran
Spoken and written
Cleveland, William L., and Martin Bunton.
A History of the Modern Middle East
. 5th Ed. Boulder: Westview Press, 2013. Print. 347.
The Cambridge History of Iran.
Ed. P. Avery, G. R. G and C. Melville Hambly. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991. 687.
Alizadeh, Parvin. Ed.
The Economy of Iran: Dilemmas of an Islamic State
. London: I.B. Tauris & Co Ltd, 2000. Print. 63.
Amirahmadi, Hooshang.
Revolution and Economic Transition: The Iranian Experience.
Albany: State University of New York Press, 1991. 74.
1
1
1
Chart
Top Oil Producing Countries 1960-2006.
Annual Energy Review.
Energy Information Administration, US Department of Energy, 2007. Web. 17 November 2013.
Pictures
Associated Press. Iran Revolution Women 1979. 1979. Tehran, Iran. AP Images. Web. 17 November, 2013.
Associated Press. Iran Demonstration. 1979. Tehran, Iran. AP Images. Web. 17 November, 2013.
1973 Gas Shortage
Two primary factors behind the 1979 crisis were the Iranian Revolution and President Carter's Energy Policy
Spoken and Written
Andrew Downer Crain. “Ford, Carter, and Deregulation in the 1970s.” Journal on Telecommunications and High Technology Law 5.2 (2007): 413–448.
Philip K. Verleger Jr. et al. “The U.S. Petroleum Crisis of 1979.” Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1979.2 463–476.
Domestic Policy Response
The deregulation of oil prices and reduced dependence on foreign oil
The View from Outside
Price Increase
Chart
Barsky, Robert, and Lutz Kilian. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. No. w10855. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.
Spoken
Barsky, Robert, and Lutz Kilian. Oil and the macroeconomy since the 1970s. No. w10855. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2004.
1980 McDonald's television commercial
Iran
Chart
Iran oil production vs. consumption 1965-2009. 2011. Chart. Crude Oil Peak. 18 Nov 2013. <http://crudeoilpeak.info/imf-warns-of-oil-scarcity-and-a-60-oil-price-increase-within-a-year>.
Spoken
"Oil production, total." BP. Gapminder. Web. 18 Nov 2013. <http://www.gapminder.org/data/>.
Political Response
Domestic Policy Response
Jimmy Carter: "Energy Address to the Nation. ," April 5, 1979. Online by Gerhard Peters and John T. Woolley, The American Presidency Project. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=32159.
“Carter’s deregulation of oil means major price increase.” Eugene Register Guard [Eugene, Oregon] 9 Oct. 1979: Google news archive. Web. 15 Nov. 2013.
Crain, Andrew Downer. "Ford, Carter, and Deregulation in the 1970s." J. on Telecomm. & High Tech. L. 5 (2006): 413-448.
Freidel, Frank, and Hugh Sidney. The Presidents of the United States of America. Rep. Washington, DC: White House Historical Association, 2006. The White House. Web. 14 Nov. 2013.http://digitalcollections.library.cmu.edu/awweb/awarchive?type=file&item=697391
“Plenty at a price." Economist [London, England] 22 Sept. 1979: 40+. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 17 Nov. 2013.
The View From Outside
Images and Spoken
"In a bind." Economist [London, England] 13 Jan. 1979: 36+. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 17 Nov. 2013.
"Rituals performed." Economist [London, England] 3 Mar. 1979: 67+. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 17 Nov. 2013.
“Plenty at a price." Economist [London, England] 22 Sept. 1979: 40+. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 17 Nov. 2013.
Other
Jon Kimche. "Oil shortage?" Economist [London, England] 24 Mar. 1979: 4. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 17 Nov. 2013.
"At last, a plan for energy." Economist [London, England] 5 Mar. 1977: 49+. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 18 Nov. 2013.
"Will The. Heat From Iran Ignite Eec Energy Policy?" Economist [London, England] 3 Mar. 1979: 50+. The Economist Historical Archive. Web. 18 Nov. 2013.

Videos
CBS 6 Video Vault: 1979 - August - Gas Emergency. 1979. Video. YouTube. 18 Nov 2013. <http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=9H3K1WwqZH4>.
1980 McDonald's TV commercial - "Gas Line." 1980. Video. YouTube. 18 Nov 2013. <http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=8fLI7A0oGaY>
Full transcript