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Arab Revolution: Causes and Impacts
Transcript of Arab Revolution: Causes and Impacts
'The revolt in the Arab world is not merely against a resident dictator but a worldwide economic tyranny designed by the US Treasury and imposed by the US Agency for International Development, the IMF and World Bank, which have ensured that rich countries like Egypt are reduced to vast sweatshops, with half the population earning less than $2 a day. The people’s triumph in Cairo was the first blow against what Benito Mussolini called corporatism, a word that appears in his definition of fascism.' 41 years Wikileaks Socio-economic Political Dictatorship 24 years 3O years 26-year-old university graduate, Mohammed Bouazizi, set himself in fire. Mohammed Bouazizi Symbol of the revolution Religious repression
Social unjustice (Unemployement)
Emprisonement of opposition
Embezzlement => Wealth
No freedom of expression or criticism Leaked cables confirmed people's suspicions:
Tremendous wealth of Ben Ali (Son of Ben Ali has a Lion in his palace)
Corrupted financial deals
The influence of Trabelsi family on power
The close cooperation of Moubarak with Israel
The plan to leave presidency to Gamal Moubarak
Slightly impacted on the street pulse, anger and confirmation. "Corruption in the inner circle is growing. Even average Tunisians are keenly aware of it, and the chorus of complaints is rising. Tunisians intensely dislike, even hate, first lady Leila Trabelsi and her family. In private, regime opponents mock her; even those close to the government express dismay at her reported behaviour.
"Meanwhile, anger is growing at Tunisia's high unemployment and regional inequities. As a consequence, the risks to the regime's long-term stability are increasing." One of the diplomatic cables says: Social Networks and media Free expression
Mobilisation Internal effect: External effect: Oil exportation U.S influence and interests Tourism, public services, damage of propreties Hawley (IMF spokesman) said the economic impact of the revolt was being felt.
"It is too early for a firm assessment of the economic impact of the current unrest," he told reporters.
"But it is clear that it has led to a decline in economic activity."
He cited the country's interior minister as saying the violence of the recent weeks may have resulted in a slowdown equivalent of 4.5 percent of GDP.
The IMF had long stressed the high level of Tunisian unemployment, 14 percent for the general population but double that for those under 25, as a major problem for the country. What are the probabilities of witnessing
the emergence of islamic republics in the
What would happen if the new governments lead an anti-U.S Policy, probability of military intervention to secure interests?
Would the formation of an Arab Union heal the socio-economic structure in the region and secure better stability? Oil, weapons contracts? Higher level Education (awareness) + Retreat of investors Corrupted firms contracts Renegotiated
Cancelled Global energy Crisis Libya
Algeria Oil based economies:
production stoped, economic crisis BREAKINGVIEWS - Oil above $100 makes Arab protests Asia's problem (Reuters) Exchange markets dowfall Arab regimes Arab-Israeli cooperation Constitutional reforms
Liberation of political prisoners
Dismissal of ministers
No re-election Youth involvement in the political field
Diplomatic and friendly repression
Fear from the people, not the opposite
"People should not fear the government. The government should be afraid of their people" V for Vendetta Chain reaction throughout the world? VS Violence and oppression of demonstrators Usage of military forces to stay in power Crimes against humanity (Libya) Military joint operations and intervention 6000-10000 death Arab regimes = Strategic Allies U.S strong military presence in the region Military and Oil contracts Extremism and terrorist org Unclear political position towards:
U.S Supremacy and Influence BUT (Consent = Backup plan) Secret agendas?
Instability would allow better control Philosophy: Wikileaks Lack of trust
Allies of yesterday + diplomatic = and
Trash of tomorrow cables cooperation Deterioring relations:
Oil and Gaz supplies (prices reviewed)
Gaza issue (Egypt allowed the first building materials)
Anti-Zionism present in the protests (Anti-Western)
Israeli help in repressing protests in Libya (incase rebels win?)
Islamic republics => direct threat to Israel "We use Facebook to schedule the protests, Twitter to coordinate, and YouTube to tell the world."