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Murat Inan

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on 29 May 2014

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Transcript of Murat Inan

Modernization and Socialization Effects on Political Participation in Turkey: A Quantitative Analysis

Murat İnan
PhD Student

University of Sheffield


Maria Grasso
Alistair McMillan
The Great Dichotomy

Low level of education
Low level of income
Agricultural occupation
Rural habitation
Ignore politics

High level of education
High level of income
Manual/non-manual occupation
Urban habitation
Interested in politics
Descriptive Statistics
Dependent Variables
Independent Variables
Regression Analyses
What do these all mean in practice?

Spending formative years under an authoritarian regime/laws makes an individual less likely to participate in politics. Besides this direct effect, it also stabilizes the role of modernization effect on political participation.
For the other side of the relationship, traditional members of the society are less likely to participate in politics. What is more, they are also less likely to be influenced by the period they spent their formative years in.
Logistic regression is a probabilistic model used to predict binary (dummy) outcome variables. Binary variable is a special categorical variable with two possible outcomes. The variable takes on the value “1” if event happens (success) and “0” if event does not happen (failure).

~Thank You~

Data and Methods
Descriptive Statistics
Flow Chart
Descriptive Tables
Research Question
What is the interplay between modernization and socialization effects regarding to their impacts on political participation?
Given the assumptions of the political socialization approach, I argue that due to relatively liberal laws and regulations and conflict-ridden political environment,
members of the Cold War generation in Turkey are more likely to develop an activity-prone characteristics
than their counterparts from the Pre-Cold War and the Post-Cold War generations. Besides this direct effect, socialization period plays
an indirect role
on political participation either by
stabilizing or promoting the modernization effect

As the classical modernization theory implies;
well-educated, well-off and manual/non-manual job occupants are more likely to participate in politics
than others. Additionally, indicating to a
reciprocal conditionality
modernization effect also plays an indirect role on political participation by
facilitating the socialization effect
to exert
a more marked impact on higher categories
of socioeconomic development.
The Classical Modernization Theory: Classical modernization theorists pointed out a positive relationship operating from modernization to higher political participation (Lipset 1959; Lerner 1958: 43-75; Black 1966: 9-26; Eisenstadt 1966:1-19; Inkeles 1974:325).

The Socialization Theory: Individuals who come of age in the same period are influenced by the same politico-historical context. Recognizing political events starts at the age of 14-15 (Jennings and Niemi 1981; Mishler and Rose 2007).
The Classical Modernization Theory
The Socialization Theory

Data and Methods
Descriptive Figures
Original Coding, Recoding and Questionnaire Wording of Variables
Turkish generations and their formative periods

Pre-Cold War
(1928-1959): Suppressed political and civil rights.
Cold War
(1960-1980): Enhanced political and civil rights & Conflict-ridden political environment
Post-Cold War
(1980-1989): Suppressed political and civil rights.

Some generations are more likely to participate in politics. Besides this direct effect, this generational effect is more marked for higher levels of socioeconomic development.
Higher socioeconomic development is positively associated with political participation. What is more, this modernization effect is stronger for some particular generations.
Limitations of the Study
Lack of longitudinal data.
No perfect isolation of Age, Cohort and Period (ACP) effects.
Inability to compare modernization and socialization effects regarding to their power
Measurement of modernization

Age Cohort and Period (ACP) Effects
1. Age (aging) Effect:
A curvilinear relationship between age and political participation.
2. Cohort (generational) Effect:
Rather long term changes that occur during formative years and leave a "lasting" mark on individual attitudes and behaviors.
Silent generation, Baby boomers, Millennials
3. Period Effect:
Short term changes that influence members of the society from all age groups.
Economic crises, natural disasters etc.
Classical modernization theory presents
a process of transition from traditional to modern society
. Analogous to the
two poles of an axis
, traditional and modern societies are clearly portrayed. The contrast between these poles is called
"the great dichotomy”

Signing a petition
Joining in a boycott
Attending a lawful demonstration
A repeated cross-sectional data from four rounds of Turkish Values Survey conducted between the years 1990 and 2007.
“No answer” and “don’t know” answers were set to missing.
The final sample consists of 6012 respondents aged over 18.
World Values Survey (WVS)

Cross sectional & cross cultural
Changes in values and attitudes across 97 countries
Face-to-face interviews
Random sampling method
Representing 88% of the World`s population
Launched in 1981
Six waves so far
Marginal Effects
The Problem
Modernization & Socialization Effects Political Participation

Modernization theory lacks explaining generational effects and socialization theory lacks explaining differences between socioeconomic categories.
The main premise of this paper is to provide
a generational insight into the classical modernization approach
a modernization vision into the socialization approach
within the scope of their interpretation of political participation. It implies
a reciprocal conditionality
between modernization and socialization effects.

Domestic Politics
New constitution
Decentralization of power
Political and Civil Rights
Left-Right Conflicts

International Politics
The Vietnam War
Berlin Wall
The Cuban Missile Crisis
The U2 Incident
NATO`s Containment Policy
Nuclear Deterrence

The Cold War Period
Social Class
Control Variables
Year Dummies

Developing countries political context.
Harvard IJAS, 2014
Full transcript