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Chapter 6: Population Explosive and Control

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Jenn Huynh

on 7 January 2013

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Transcript of Chapter 6: Population Explosive and Control

The Population Explosion: Chapter 6: Population Explosion and Control The last stage of the demography transition model is... “Post-transition” ...is when a country’s birth rate (BR) has declined to the point where it equals to, or may even fall below its death rate (DR) When countries start experiencing the advantages of economic and social growth: Too Many People: The Demographic Trap Which is: When a developing country at the late transition stage continues to have a: India’s population grows rapidly each year
MEANING: They must provide for every demand before being able to improve the standard living
Soon, the demands will exceed their country’s carrying capacity -The country won’t have enough revenue to promote any development
-The population explosion will continue until a Malthusian collapse occurs This is a situation where the increasing population has increased the demands for food supply and services (Ex. medical and educational service) High BR (instead of a declining BR) + Declining DR = A Large Population Increase (which could affect the country’s economic and social development) Some fear that developing countries may fall into the DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP ...This will lead to OVERPOPULATION For Example: An overload of people that prevent a country from meeting the needs of its citizens (in terms of economic, social, environmental) OVERPOPULATION is... The Result? The provision of enough food is the most basic problem associated with overpopulation... 1. Food In order for a country to move through demographic transition, an educated population is crucial 2. Education 3. Employment A situation in a cycle in which the outcome has an impact on the initial condition Feedback Loop: Negative Feedback: If it reduces the conditions Positive Feedback: If the impact increases the initial condition Urbanization ... they will start to shift into post-transition IF the BR = DR -> the natural increase will be zero and the Some examples of countries in post-transition are: Canada, Sweden and Singapore India has been able to provide food for most of its people
-> because it was a major beneficiary of the Green Revolution
As India’s population increases, its per-capita amount of cropland diminishes
BUT...by using modern agriculture technology, India can double its agriculture productivity
-> Ex. In 1950 and 2000, India doubled its production of rice and water Because of India’s exploding population, their ability to educate its citizens is affected
-> IT WILL hindered their demographic transition
Although India has made huge efforts to educate its people in 1947...
-> more than 1/2 of the adults still remain illiterate BUT: these jobs are harder to find as the farm sizes decrease
-> MEANING that India’s agriculture economy cannot support the growing population
->It increase the number of people moving to cities (even though most people lack the education) Countries that have a high population will have trouble providing jobs for the huge number of people entering the workplace each year Population Control The two countries that are the most populated are China and India: India’s population is just about 1.1 billion and have recently started declining -> BUT...it is expected that India’s population will become larger than China between 2020 and 2030 Both counties have reduced their fertility rates through government-driven POPULATION CONTROL measures ... which is: the limit of population growth through such measures as contraception, sterilization and abortion -Since 1950, the birth rate in India has reduced from 6 children per women to about 3 per women
-> BUT... the population growth rate still remains constant (because DR decrease) SO, their efforts to control the population growth have ONLY had moderate success India's Approach to Population Control 1951-1961 1962-1969 1969-1975 1995+ 1977-1994 1976-1977 India's Policies On Population Control -Before 1921: The population was relatively stable {around 251 million people} -After 1921: The population increase (due to sanitation programs and famine and epidemic-control measures)
{exceeded 1 billion in 2000} Phrase 1: Clinic Approach Phrase 2: Target-Oriented Sterilizations #1 Phrase 6: Reproductive & Child Health Approach Phrase 5: Backlash & Recovery Phrase 4: Coercive Approach Phrase 3:Target-Oriented Sterilizations #2 - Family planning was encouraged though:
1. Contraception
2. Sterilization
-It was hard to educate people widely dispersed across rural area -Targeted Number for contraception/sterilization HAD to be met
-> Workers' POV: This was more important than reduced BR -Sterilization was the main form of population control
-Men were encouraged to have it in exchange for goods and cash -Family-planning was mandatory
-Families were restricted to 3 children
-Men were sometime forced to have sterilization surgeries
-People who didn’t meet the targeted number were punished -Hostile response occurred
-1977: Mandatory sterilization stopped
-Put emphasis on education, voluntary contraception and child-survival programs -India signs the UN Program of Action
Adopts health services
-> Goal: Achieving a BR of 2.1 children per women by 2010 What Has Been the Impact of India's Population Policies? 2) Female Infanticide in the past
3) After mid-1980: families started to abort female fetuses because of the development of the ultrasound machines 1. The policies were affected by the vast cultural, religious, and economic differences 2. The policies did not focus on sustainable birth-rate reductions.
-> They did not care about: women’s role in society, education level, economic development, or health These factors help reduced birth rates -Female sterilization is the most popular method of family planning -Only a few were actually using this because a lot of women mistrust them (due to their side effects) Impact: The widening of the gender gap (Drastically more males than females) The ratio ranges from 113 to 129 boys for every 100 girls for different states 1994: The government passed a law making it illegal for ultra-sound operators to discuss the gender of the fetus 1) many families prefer male children since:
- They will remain in the family to support and care for the parents
- They also supply farm labor/work in the family business
- They also carry on the Family name
- In Hindu families, males conduct the religious rites when the parents die This is Happening Because: But this didn't work, so the government use national campaigns -“Save a Girl Child” campaigns
-Delhi developed a “Girl Child Protection Scheme” when money is put into an account for every female born Consequence: Harder for men to get marry Maybe…
-The lack of women will increase women’s status
-Pay more attention to women’s education, economic development, and health PROBLEM: The population in China is already huge
->SO the government decided to take some steps to control the population growth (in the mid-1950s) by enforcing... Great-Leap Forward:
An economic/social plan to develop a heavy industry to create a modern industrialized communist society 1958-1960 1962 1966-1976 2002- Present Day 1979-2001 China's Policies On Population Control One-Child Policy:
A policy enforced in 1979 to reduce the country’s population growth rate by restricting families to one child Approach 1: Great Leap Forward Approach 1: Great Leap Forward Approach 2: One-Child Policy Approach 2: One-Child Policy Approach 1: Great Leap Forward -Soon, the Great Keep Forward changes was discarded

-BR and DR return to original levels -People were expected to marry at an older age
-A women who become pregnant without permissions will received a large fine/abortion
-Female sterilization was encourage (sometimes required after having 2nd child) -India’s population policies and programs have not been successful everywhere because: China's Approach to Population Control Great-Leap Forward One-Child Policy Jennifer Huynh (600136) Population will stabilize Begins to decline OR Rich resource base Access to education Access to healthcare Access to advance technology The number of farms in India has increased from: 48 million in 1960 116 million in 2006 In 2006 Their fertility rate began declining In 1886 Even though... China’s population is roughly 1.3 billion The Chinese CLAIMED that the “one-child policy” has prevented 400 million births What Has Been the Impact of China's Population Policies? The ratio ranges from 113 to 129 boys for every 100 girls for different states -Agriculture land was organized to huge collective farms
-> BUT: These changes was not planned out

-The BR dropped and the population decline for a long time lead food production dropping (DR rises) Food supply improved -Extremists in the Communist Party took over -> BUT: Little was done to help the population problem -Use positive rewards to encourage this policy -Use penalties for those who do not follow this policy (Ex. demotion, fine, alienation) (Ex. government payment) Stronger regulations are brought into the policy: -Banned sex determination/ sex-selective abortion -Having more than one child is a criminal act -Banned discrimination against mistreatment of female infants -In 1970: The fertility rate is 5.6 children per women
-In 2007: The fertility rate is 1.8 children per women A STUDY SHOWS: This policy has been successful despite some of its negative impacts The gender gap is widening ... IMPACT: One authority estimated that 3.5 million girls were killed in China over a 10-year period IMPACT: To improve the education of girls (to try to fix the gender imbalance) Policies was enforced to ensure the equality of women By 2020... UPDATE: PROBLEM Lead to kidnapping and trafficking of women Around 40 million Chinese men will be unable to marry since there is a shortage of women There will be: A high dependency load of older people A labour shortage PROBLEM? As China starts to move into post-transition... Education: Status of Women: Healthcare: Land Reform: Government: They discovered a way to make its country reach post-transition quickly without: What led Kerala to a successful demographic transition is: Kerala Population Control: Achieving wealthy economies Forcing their citizens to use birth-control methods OR -Kerala has a higher education level than the rest of India
-They FOCUS on education because: People with more education tend to have fewer children -High literary levels lead to a well-educated, empowered female population who will have fewer children -Healthcare was and still is available (it is inexpensive)
-Improve healthcare reduces the BR (since good healthcare ensure that most of the children will survive)
-Offers better access to birth control -Kerala set up land-reform policies that limited farm size
-These farm sizes ensured that every farmer would gain ownership of some land -Since India’s independence in 1947, the citizens elected governments that ... Expatriate Workers: Structural Change Model: Change by Diffusion Model: 2 models to describe how important changes occur in a society: (Ex. In Kerala, the media change people’s attitude by portraying smaller families as MODERN) The Future of Population Control ...to come up with policies that would help counties finished the transition and developed their economies Although many countries are making progress in meeting these goals -Kerala is the only Indian state that has: Females Males (because males work oversea and send money back) > In 1950s-1960s This increased family planning Provided for social progress for women, education and healthcare Since mid-1970s Money Experience of living in a modern society -These workers then bring back: It has been a major source of expatriate workers & The use of government policy to effect change in country (Ex. China’s one-child policy) Change that occurs gradually as people recognize the benefits of the change Problems like: These policies also have to be morally/politically acceptable Their Goals... Over 80% ...Of countries reported that the available resources didn’t meet their reproductive-health needs TOO MANY MEN So many more mouths to feed... The UN address the problem of the demographic trap at the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) You want to help them have a...
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