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Scenario Planning: China 2025

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by

Amy Wagg

on 21 March 2014

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Transcript of Scenario Planning: China 2025

Scenario Planning: China 2025
Waking up in a New World
Backfire
Final Destination
Field of Play
Swimming in an ocean of possibilities...
“Over time China will replace the US as global benchmark. Not only economically but also as moral authority, best practice engine and game-changer innovation center”
Power & Environment
Political
Digging Resources
A long time ago, in the year 2025, in a continent (not) far, far away…

It is a period of economic prosperity. Chinese corporations operating from all over the continent are extracting valuable natural resources to cover the ever increasing demand of its home market.
But the period of economic prosperity had its price. Only by entering close alliances with China, South America was able to develop and to catch up with developed nations. As a result China had increased its economic and political influence. This helped countries like Bolivia to gain back its access to the sea. But China had not only increased its influence but also gained control over various natural resources such as lithium and was even able to annex habitable land in the Antarctic which became very valuable in the progress of global warming.
Mental Models
Cheap Chinese products to be successful in South America
Continuous growth of Chinese economy
Cooperation of socialist nations
Bolivia’s desire to gain back its sea access
Bolivia versus Chile – inability to find a solution
Inability of Bolivia to develop without external help
PESTEL
Increasing demand / market price for lithium (batteries, car batteries etc.)
Infrastructure across the continent needs to be developed
Political stability to build and maintain South American – Chinese relationship
Huge natural resources across South America
Undeveloped economic opportunities
Increasing awareness of natural resources could lead to protectionism
Fringe
Chinese Special Administration Territories in the Antarctica
China to take active role in South American economy and in foreign affairs
China to support Bolivia in “2nd War of Pacific”
Bolivia to become new Dubai (Gas, Oil, Lithium)
A change away from the “American Dream” towards “Chinese Pragmatism”

US
POWER
RESOURCES &
MIDDLE CLASS
Partner for Profit
China is Africa's largest trade partner with trade in excess of $200B and FDI above $12B annually and rising

China wins majority of infrastructure projects AND gets rights to vast amounts of natural resources
Power Plays
Rage and Race
Downhill Quickly
Strong men that embraced China's investment ( Zenawi, Gaddafi, Mubarak, Wade) no longer in office and are replaced with more timid, elected leaders - afraid of the violence that preceded them
Reports surface in global news of incidents between workers and Chinese business owners - poor conditions and lack of jobs going to locals the major drivers.

Some incidents are quite violent and end in multiple deaths and injuries
Despite poor conditions, growing accusations of corruption and Anti-African hiring policies and rising tensions between African locals and Chinese business owners the Chinese government maintains policy of non-involvement.

China's lack of involvement to fix systemic issues seen as PR to not be labeled 'colonizer' or 'resource exploiter'. A policy of convenience.
Negative feelings towards China grows across the continent
Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Malawi, Zambia, Angola, Ghana stand out in global surveys of perceptions of China

Larger and more significant clashes in resource mines and in urban areas
local business people, emboldened by the show of support from workers and neighbouring countries, speak out against ongoing Chinese investment and removing the land from the people
Jaffa Shibu (local businessman) predicts massive bloodshed between the groups in the near future
Lamido Sanusi OUSTED
Rallying Cry for Change = Resource Nationalism

Sansi and Rebel leaders from activist groups and businesses take to social media and demand change
effort brings about change faster and with more force that 'Arab Spring'
"rebels" supported by foreign partners - Japan and US
China is forced to intervene to protect investments

the result.....
Demands must be met from African public
force out corruption
fair work for locals
improve conditions
Leads to massive retreat of Chinese companies that cannot meet new standards and fear physical harm.

A few companies quickly restructure to meet needs but overall China has to rebuild efforts in Africa.
anti-corruption and strong financial reforms as Govenor of Central Ban of Nigeria
talked publicly, while in office, of the rise of 'Resource Nationalism' as a way to get Africa back in the hands of Africans
Full transcript