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Will the UK ever leave the Union?

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Coen van de Ven

on 16 October 2014

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Transcript of Will the UK ever leave the Union?

Will the UK really leave?
"The UK had the illusion that you could maintain what you had, without change" – Jean Monnet
Churchill praised the idea of European cooperation
For a long time, UKIP was marginal
Elections of 2010: boomed in votes
Big win during EP elections
Party boomed and euro skepticism spread
Big rise of UKIP
For a long time a marginal party
Just some political views
'Regain control over development
Prioritising services for own people
"Spending our money at home"
Economical benefits
Free market
Access to 50 million consumers
3 million British jobs are related to the EU
Movement of people
Business regulation policy
'The poisoned chalice'
UK pays 15 billion a years
Able to negotiate own trade treaties
Still profits from the Lisbon Treaty
Less regulation
More independent immigration policy
Able to negotiate own trade treaties
The big rise
Moving government closer to people
No seats in the House of Commons
Two seats in the House of Lords
...thanks to Nigel Farage
Big boom during the EP elections
What do the other countries think?
Cameron's Strategy

Aim for the middle
Act like a statesman
"The flanks are 'extremists"
Being the realistic alternative

France: "no cherry picking"
Germany: open to reforms
The Netherlands: also open to reforms
USA: "Please, stay"
Middle East links
Guido Westerwelle, German Foreign Minister:
"We don't need less, but more integration"
Ireland feels uncertain
The UKIP program
Lower taxes
Less immigrants
More security
and of course all of this is connected to Europe
'More democracy'
Fighting crime
Regain control over borders
Again: it's Europe to blame
"UKIP will bring back power to the people"
Is it easy to leave the EU?
Cameron's Strategy

Aim for the middle
Act like a statesman
"The flanks are 'extremists"
Being the realistic alternative

Leaving is a right
"Any member state may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements"
A withdrawing state has to negotiate with the European Council
The European Parliament has to approve by qualified majority
Legal consequences of leaving
Cameron's Strategy

Aim for the middle
Act like a statesman
"The flanks are 'extremists"
Being the realistic alternative

"The treaties shall cease to apply to the state in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement (...)"
A second negotiation starts to shape a whole new relation
Leading party

Advocate of cooperation between member states
Allergic for federalism
Euro critical leaders like Thatcher
Conservative achievements from the last years
Cameron's leadership
Left wing for a 'Tory', strict on Europe
Left the European People's Party
"Dominated by European federalists"
Driven by eurosceptism in the UK, starts fighting for national interests
Against the appointment of Juncker
Increased eurosceptism
European Conservatives and Reformists
Spoke about the 'United States of Europe'
...but the UK stayed out of treaties during '50s
For the UK it was unacceptable to hand-over power
The UK was always an island and stayed an island
When Britain revised there choice, De Gaulle blocked their membership.
1973: De Gaulle left office, UK became member of an economical union
"I want my money back" – Margaret Thatcher
The Thatcher years
Referendum about membership
1979 – 1990: Margaret Thatcher ruled
Debated a rebate
1984: the UK got a discount on their EU contribution
Britain and Brussels were driven apart by different visions
The following years led to a lot of opt-outs
"The economic benefits of membership are overwhelming"
"Europe is still a symbol of a better future, peace and prosperity"
From eurosceptic to critical supporter
Centre-left party
Became pro European under Tony Blair
For social democratic standards, critic on the EU
Future lies in the EU driven by national interest
Hides Europe as a topic in communication with voters

'We are against any further powers to go from Britain to Brussels'
What are the alternatives?
Cameron's Strategy

Aim for the middle
Act like a statesman
"The flanks are 'extremists"
Being the realistic alternative

EFTA, free trade space with own tariff quotas
EEA, expanded european market under EU legislation
The 'Swiss model'
Older cases of countries leaving
Cameron's Strategy

Aim for the middle
Act like a statesman
"The flanks are 'extremists"
Being the realistic alternative

Greenland mayor withdrawal case
'Treaty of Greenland'
Algeria, Saint Bartolome and Saint Martin
Now an OCT associate
London's calling
Jonathan Hill appointed
"Relocation, relocation"
"We believe that a key risk to London's status as a financial hub is an exit by the UK from the European Union" – JP Morgan
The City of London is home of foreign Banks
Tackle national problems as
a member of the EU
Serve national interests better with the EU
Solve world problems more effectively
improve strategic influence
"The economic benefits of membership are overwhelming" – Ed Miliband, Leader of the Labour Party
Access to a market with hundreds of millions of people
Memberships makes our economy more innovative
"British future lies in the EU"
No further transfer of power to the EU
Although also critic
"UKIP exploits people's fear and problems"
Third biggest in House of Commons
Big loser during the European Parliament Elections
UK's strongest advocate of EU
Strong proponent of a federal EU
Claimed they cut the EU budget and saved 8 billion pounds a years
Britain vetoed a treaty in 2011 that was in conflict with national interests
During negotiations of a banking union, they protected the city
UK was among the founders of 'yellow-card'
Establishment of a new European group
Wants to leave
Wants to reduce
No further integration
Supports an
'ever closer union'

'Europe if necessary, national when possible
The Tories fear the impact of UKIP
...so they made a lot of anti-EU promises:
Referendum in 2017
Don't contribute to every step that leads to an ever closer union
Keep up the pressure for a single location for the EU parliament
Add a red card next to the yellow one
A statesman
Presents his self as the only serious option
'We let you decide'
'All politics is local'
But Cameron has created a very difficult situation: he lost friends in Europe
“Nick thinks there's nothing wrong with Europe and we shouldn't have a referendum; Nigel thinks there's nothing right with Europe and we should just get out and leave. Both of them are quite extremist when it comes to Europe” – Cameron
The consequences of a 'Brexit'
Lose of free movement of people and facilities of trade, exports and imports
Lose of power and influence on the world stage
Exacerbate of independence feelings (Scotland)
The people of the UK judge the results above
What will be the impact on the rest of northern Europe?
or a tightrope walker?
'Isolationism is masochism'
"There are people who love modern Britain as it is today: compassionate, diverse and outward facing"
By working with other countries, you can deal with world's complexities such as climate change
Completing the single market could increase UK's GDP by 7% and an optional 300,000 new jobs
London will pay a high price for leaving the EU
"Nations are stronger together than apart"
Full transcript