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Aeropostale

Business project. H. pre-calc 2011
by

Brittni Jenson

on 18 November 2011

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Transcript of Aeropostale

Market Price
High Low
Fiscal 2010
4th quarter........................................................................... $ 27.03 $ 23.04
3rd quarter ............................................................................ 28.57 21.30
2nd quarter ........................................................................... 30.88 27.14
1st quarter............................................................................. 32.08 21.89
Fiscal 2009
4th quarter........................................................................ $ 25.50 $ 19.30
3rd quarter ........................................................................... 29.47 23.43
2nd quarter ........................................................................... 25.48 20.67
1st quarter............................................................................ 22.65 13.78
Brainstorm Results Research Notes San Francisco Budapest (cc) photo by Metro Centric on Flickr (cc) photo by Franco Folini on Flickr (cc) photo by jimmyharris on Flickr Stockholm (cc) photo by Metro Centric on Flickr Aeropostale Initial Scatter Plot Which Fits Best? Cub_Reg Exp_Reg Lin_Reg Log_Reg Quad_Reg Quar_Reg World Expansion! The name originated from a Latin-American airmail firm called Compagnie Generale Aéropostale. It is a mall-based retailer, that markets mainly to 14 to 17-year old men and women. Interesting Facts The Company currently operates over 942 Aéropostale stores in the United States, and Puerto Rico and over 65 stores in Canada. Aéropostale mainly competes with other outfitters, American Eagle, Abercrombie & Fitch and Hollister reported sales of $2.97 billion, $3.037 billion and $298.2 million respectively. By the equation, 2009 should have had 1,005 stores and 2010 should have had roughly 1,022 stores. The actual number of stores for 2009 was 952 and the actual number of stores for 2010 was 1,012. Some reasons for the differences in the number of store locations are that business dropped and stores were closed down, not enough products were manufactured to compensate for so many stores, or the demand for the products decreased. Also, there may have been a lack in creativity for new designs and other products. HISTORY
1987 - First Aéropostale® store opened by R.H. Macy & Co., Inc. (later purchased by Federated Department Stores in 1994).
1998 – Aéropostale Inc.’s current management team and Bear Stearns purchase Aéropostale with 119 stores for approximately $15.0 million.
2002 – Aéropostale, Inc. goes public - $250.0 million deal.
2005 - Aéropostale, Inc. launches www.aeropostale.com
.2007 – Aéropostale, Inc. opens first store in Canada.
2008 – Aéropostale, Inc. opens first store in Puerto Rico.
2009 – Aéropostale, Inc. opens first store in Dubai, U.A.E.
2009 – Aéropostale, Inc. launches new kids concept, ‘P.S. from Aéropostale’.
2010 – Aéropostale, Inc. opens dynamic, flagship Times Square, New York City location.
Today – Aéropostale, Inc. to exceed over $2.0 billion in sales with over 1,000 stores.
While the cubic regression model fits the first set of data, the logistic regression model fits the set of data to a better extent and accounts for the fact of a bussiness's growth leveling out. Year: # of stores:
1) 1998 119
2) 1999 151
3) 2000 224
4) 2001 278
5) 2002 367
6) 2003 459
7) 2004 561
8) 2005 671
9) 2006 742
10) 2007 828
11) 2008 914
12) 2009 952
13) 2010 1,012 Equations
QuadReg: y = ax2 + bx + c
A= .063
B= 80.20
C= 75.473
LinReg: y = ax + b
A= 80.962
B= 74.077
CubicReg: y = ax3 +bx2 +cx + d
A= -.638
B= 11.549
C= 27.237
D= 117.588
QuarticReg: y = ax4 + bx3 + cx2 + dx + e
A= .016
B= -1.017
C= 14.402
D= 20.282
E= 120.267
ExpReg: y = a + bx
A= 155.461
B= 1.197
Logistic: y = c/(1+a^(-bx))
A=8.633
B= .357
C= 1,124.667 Based on the rate of number of stores Aeropostale has, I predicted that they would have roughly 1,081 stores in 2012, 1,109 stores in 2015, and 1,122 stores in 2020. I believe these predictions to be slightly greater than what the actual number of stores will be since the logistic model already is higher than the actual number of stores. An uprising question is whether or not the company wishes to continue their international expansion. Another question that would also require more research is if the company plans to adjust their aimed age range from adolescents and children to adults as well The cubic regression model fits the first set of data fairly well with a slightly higher number of predicted stores for 2009 and 2010. Works Cited! "10-K." U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Home Page). Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1168213/000095012307004850/y32608e10vk.htm>.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Home Page). Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1168213/000095012304004611/y94783e10vk.txt>.
U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Home Page). Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1168213/000095012303004907/y85597e10vk.txt>.
"AEROPOSTALE, INC." U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Home Page). Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1168213/000095012305004383/y07655e10vk.htm>.
"E10vk." U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (Home Page). Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1168213/000095012306004270/y19376e10vk.htm>.
"Fact Sheet." Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDMyNjA0fENoaWxkSUQ9NDUwOTE3fFR5cGU9MQ==>.
"2010 Annual Report." Web. 17 Nov. 2011. <http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9NDI5MTIxfENoaWxkSUQ9NDQ2MzQ1fFR5cGU9MQ==>.
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