Loading presentation...
Prezi is an interactive zooming presentation

Present Remotely

Send the link below via email or IM

Copy

Present to your audience

Start remote presentation

  • Invited audience members will follow you as you navigate and present
  • People invited to a presentation do not need a Prezi account
  • This link expires 10 minutes after you close the presentation
  • A maximum of 30 users can follow your presentation
  • Learn more about this feature in our knowledge base article

Do you really want to delete this prezi?

Neither you, nor the coeditors you shared it with will be able to recover it again.

DeleteCancel

Make your likes visible on Facebook?

Connect your Facebook account to Prezi and let your likes appear on your timeline.
You can change this under Settings & Account at any time.

No, thanks

AEDC's 2016 Economic Forecast for Anchorage, Alaska

AEDC Economic Forecast Luncheon on Jan. 27, 2016.
by

AEDC Anchorage, AK

on 10 January 2017

Comments (0)

Please log in to add your comment.

Report abuse

Transcript of AEDC's 2016 Economic Forecast for Anchorage, Alaska

AEDC Monthly Employment Reports
Available on
www.AEDCweb.com








BIG
SPONSORED BY
AEDC ECONOMIC
Jan. 27, 2016
Bill Popp, AEDC President & CEO
2015
+600 jobs
5.1% avg.
2015
JOBS RECAP
unemployment
FORECAST FOR ANCHORAGE
Decline -1,600
OIL & GAS
Decline -600
HEALTH CARE
Growth +300
TRANSPORTATION
Flat +0
PROFESSIONAL & BUSINESS SERVICES
Decline -400
CONSTRUCTION
Decline -400
LEISURE & HOSPITALITY
Growth +200
RETAIL TRADE
Flat +0
FINANCIAL ACTIVITIES
GOVERNMENT
Decline -500
picture
Business
CONFIDENCE
Index (BCi) Report
SPONSORED BY
INDICATORS
COMPOSITE INDEX
OVERALL MESSAGE
keynote speaker
Alexa Clay
Author, The Misfit Economy
Innovation Strategist
FORECAST
www.AEDC
web
.com

Pessimism about the future driven by low oil prices and lack of solutions to state fiscal crisis.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Alaska Department of Revenue, U.S. Energy Information Administration and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
By 2025, Anchorage is the #1 city in America to
LIVE
,
WORK
&

PLAY
.
YEAR OF THE KYZER
Retail
+400
Health Care
+300
Leisure & Hospitality
+200
Construction
+100
Information
+100
Other Services
+100
Financial Activities
-100
Professional & Business Services
-300
2015 Anchorage Employment Numbers
BARRIERS FOR GROWTH
State Economy
89%
Availability of
58%
58%
Federal Regulations
Health Insurance
67%
57%
Energy Prices
Thank you!
Join us July 27, 2016
AEDC 2016 Three Year Outlook Luncheon

Find all of today's reports online
2016
@AEDC
live-tweeting
#AEDCLunch
By 2025, Anchorage will be the #1 city in America to
Live, Work and Play.
LAST YEAR, 2015:
#20
#2
#15
2016 ECONOMIC
Employment Forecast
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2016
Decline -100
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
2016 Forecast
"OTHER" SECTORS
Decline -100
2016 Forecast
Other sectors include:
Private Education
Wholesale Trade
Information
Manufacturing
Other Services
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
Professional/Technical Workforce
2016
2016 Business Confidence Index Survey
2016 Forecast
Anchorage will lost 1,600 jobs in 2016.
2/3 of those jobs will be in Oil & Gas and State Government.
Do you agree with the following statement,
"The only reasonable solution to achieve long-term fiscal stability for the State of Alaska is a measured combination of cuts, new revenues and growth."
YES
93%
Oil & Gas
FLAT
Manufacturing
FLAT
Transportation
FLAT
Government
FLAT
facebook.com/AnchorageLWP
instagram.com/iloveanchorage
COMPILED BY
compiled by
48.8
Anchorage Oil & Gas Employment and ANS Price per Barrel, 2004-2015
*Estimate based on preliminary 2015 numbers. All figures for calendar year based on monthly averages.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
KEYNOTE SPEAKER CO-SPONSORS
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
ANCHORAGE ECONOMY INDEX
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2016
The future rests on:
Oil prices & production
Solving the state fiscal crisis this year
Making Anchorage more competitive
2015 Q4
Anchorage Consumer Optimism Index (ANCi) Results
Sponsored by
Compiled by
Q4 composite fell to 53.2, lowest since survey started
Personal Financial Confidence still high at 65.1
Expectations of the Future lowest on record at 45.2
49.2
53.2
54.3
54.8
2016
LIVE
2016
2016
WORK
PLAY
#37
#2
#13
IMPROVED
Apartment rental cost

Diversity index

Share of Homes Affordable for Median Income Households
IMPROVED
Mean travel time to work

% of population 25+who are high school grads or higher

Taxes as a % of income
IMPROVED
Full service restaurants per 100K residents

Arts related businesses per 1K residents
DECLINED
Violent crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)

Property crimes per 1K residents (3 yr. average annual % change)
DECLINED
Net job flows

% of commuters using public transporation to get to work

Unemployment rate
DECLINED
Performing arts establishments per 100K residents

# of Arts related jobs per 1K residents

Museums, historical sites & similar per 100K residents
Live.

Work.

Play.

Metrics are available in the LWP magazine at your table, or online:
www.AEDC
web
.com
2009
2014
32.8
2015
Anchorage Cost of Living Index (COLI)
2015
Grocery Items....................
Housing...............................
Utilities................................
Transportation..................
Health Care........................
Misc. Goods & Services
{132.4}
{122.8}
{163.9}
{104.8}
{118.3}
{139.4}
{121.8}
14th
13th
Overall Index.............
16th
69th
21st
3rd
10th
The revised LWP Narrative is available on:
www.AEDC
web
.com/
Live
-
Work
-
Play
www.AEDC
web
.com/
Live
-
Work
-
Play
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
Issues & Projects Important for the
Future of Anchorage's Economy
Declining North Slope Oil Production
83%
Cook Inlet Resource Development
60%
61%
Natural Gas Pipeline-North Slope to Cook Inlet
Sustainability-AK State Operating Budget
81%
56%
Retaining & Expanding Existing
Anchorage Businesses
Do you support the establishment of a municipal sales tax to offset business & residential property taxes in Anchorage?
Issue Question #2:
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
Issue Question #1:
2016 Business Confidence Index Report
"God grant me the serenity to accept the things
I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can and the wisdom to know the difference."
-Reinhold Niebuhr
Business leaders are still mildly confident of their own businesses in 2016.
Business leaders want a complete set of solutions to the state fiscal issues this year.
Of 9 metrics, 4 improved & 2 declined.
Of 12 metrics, 3 improved & 8 declined.
Of 10 metrics, 2 improved & 3 declined.
THE
VIRTUOUS
CYCLE
AREAS OF FOCUS
EDUCATION
HOUSING
WORKPLACE WELL-BEING
COMMUNITY SAFETY
TRAILS INITIATIVE
CREATIVE PLACEMAKING
ONE ANCHORAGE, ONE ECONOMY
POPULATION
Decline -2,200
*Estimated based on preliminary 2015 numbers.
Sources: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development and McDowell Group.
2016 Forecast
Full transcript