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What are the external and internal factors that affect the s

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jason wood

on 15 October 2015

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Transcript of What are the external and internal factors that affect the s

What are the external and internal factors that affect the strategic context and security of Somalia?
What are the implications for UK Defence Policy?
- Maj J M Wood INT CORPS
MEANS
ENDS
(i) to ensure a secure and resilient UK by protecting our people, economy, infrastructure, territory and ways of life from all major risks that can affect us directly; and

(ii) to shape a stable world, by acting to reduce the likelihood of risks affecting the UK or our interests overseas, and applying our instruments of power and influence to shape the global environment and tackle potential risks at source.
FACTOR
DEDUCTION
OUTPUT
G
P
A
CHANCE
PASSION
REASON

Internal
Factors
External and Internal Factors that affect the strategic context and security of Somalia.
External
Factors
AMISOM
Global
Jihad
International
Relations
Counter
Piracy
State/
Security
Forces
Economy
Geography/
Environment
Violent
Islamic
Extremism
Somali
Clans
Humanitarian
SDSR 2010 National security tasks and planning guidelines
1. Identify and monitor national security risks and opportunities.
2. Tackle at root the causes of instability.
3. Exert influence to exploit opportunities and manage risks.
4. Enforce domestic law and strengthen international norms to help tackle those who threaten the UK and our interests.
5. Protect the UK and our interests at home.
6. Help resolve conflicts and contribute to stability.
7. Provide resilience for the UK by being prepared for all kinds of emergencies.
8. Work in alliances and partnerships.
SDSR 2015 CDS Themes
Deterence
Reassurance
Capacity Building
Peacekeeping
Stabilisation
Defence Engagement
(i) SDSR 2010; Parts 2, 5 and 6 (SDSR 2015)

(ii) FF2020 (FF2025)

(iii) Building Stability Overseas Strategy

(iv) Somali National Security Plan (London 2013)

(v) UK CT Strategy (CONTEST)

(vi) Policy papers on Conflict in Fragile States and Piracy off Somali Coast
Al-Shabaab
COIN
Maritime
Somali
Police
Somali
National
Army
EUTM
Uganda
Pledges of
Support
Support
AMISOM
Peace-
keeping
COIN
Activity
Op
ATALANTA
Op OCEAN
SHIELD
Me and Somalia against the world;
Me and my clan against Somalia;
Me and my family against my clan;
Me and my brother against my family;
Me against my brother.
- Somali proverb
Key Deduction: Scarce resources and harsh environmental conditions are a source of instability.
- Key Deduction: The split of Somali diaspora, feudal nature of the clan system and competition for survival create underlying conditions for instability.
Key Deduction: The state of Somalia is immature, the concept of statehood is not well understood and clan politics drive all activity. The absence of the state, weak Security Forces, abuse of state power and federalism exacerbates other frictions creating instability.
- Key Deduction: Al-Shabaab’s nationalistic focus means it is more of a threat to Somalia than the far enemy. Born from lack of governance, feeds on corruption, therefore biggest weakness is state provision of this.
- Key Deduction: Security is the biggest short term challenge, but economy is right behind it. Sustainable, fair and well managed development of economy is required.
- Key Deduction: Humanitarian problems are symptoms of the others, but in turn it exacerbates them. This is a long term issue that will only improve with security, governance and economy.
- Key Deduction: Al-Shabaab offers AQ a narrative the Islam is under attack and a base for operations. However, the traditional nationalistic focus of Al-Shabaab is being challenged not by AQ, but ISIL.
- Key Deduction: AMISOM will not solve Somalia’s problems due to its perception as an occupying force, but has achieved security results and has a role in peacekeeping until Somalia National Security Forces sufficiently effective.
- Key Deduction: Counter piracy one of the biggest successes for international community in Somalia in removing source of instability. Should look to apply this collective approach to COIN and peacekeeping.
- Key Deduction: State on state regional conflict involving Somalia unlikely in short-medium term, but foreign interference will continue to be an issue. International community is required for longer term stability for the expertise, money and development it brings.
AIM
- Provide audience with analysis and assessment of internal and external factors that affect the strategic context and security of Somalia.
- Introduce analytical model which explains the implications of these factors for the UK’s National Security Strategy and Defence Policy.
SCOPE
- Aim
- Introduce topic, definitions and methodology
- Internal Factors
- External Factors
- Introduce model
- Implications for UK Defence Policy based on model
- Conclusion
DEFINITIONS
External – factors which have their basis outside the internationally recognised borders of the Federal Republic of Somalia.
Internal – factors which have their basis inside the internationally recognised borders of the Federal Republic of Somalia.
Factor – “a circumstance, fact, or influence that contributes to a result” – OED.
Strategic context – factors relevant in determining the situation in which the ends, ways and means of strategy can be analysed, in this case I used the mnemonic ‘STEMPLES’ as an environmental scanning tools, although you will see later on that I have not structured by brief in this way.
Security – the level of assurance afforded to mitigate threats, vulnerabilities or weaknesses, or their perception.
Somalia – The people and the state (Federal Government of Somalia) of the Federal Republic of Somalia. The ‘nation’.
SDSR 2010 7 Military Tasks
1. Defending the UK and its Overseas Territories.
2. Providing strategic intelligence.
3. Providing nuclear deterrence.
4. Supporting civil emergency organisations in times of crisis.
5. Defending our interests by projecting power strategically and through expeditionary interventions.
6. Providing a defence contribution to UK influence.
7. Providing security for stabilisation.
References
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Hansen, Stig Jarle. Al Shabaab in Somalia: The History and Ideology of a Militant Islamist Group, 2005-2012. Oxford University Press, 2013.
Balthasar, Dominik. "Oil in Somalia: Adding Fuel to the Fire." Mogadishu, Somalia (2014).
Buluma, Godfrey. Al-Shabaab: The Threat to Kenya and the Horn of Africa. ARMY WAR COLLEGE CARLISLE BARRACKS PA, 2013.
De Silva, Purnaka L., ed. Postmodern insurgencies: Political violence, identity formation and peacemaking in comparative perspective. Macmillan, 2000.
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