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“What are the external and internal factors that affect the

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Nick Colvin

on 7 October 2015

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Transcript of “What are the external and internal factors that affect the

“What are the external and internal factors that affect the strategic context and security of China? What are the implications for UK defence policy?”
Aim
To identify the internal and external factors which affect China’s strategic context and security

Scope
Define the security and strategic context of China and identify UK Defence Policy relevance

Analysis of China looking at the internal and external factors:
Political
Economical
Social

Look at elements UK Defence Policy and show the SWOT analysis for these factors

Definitions
Strategic Context
The long term aims of the state and the means of achieving them with relation to the unique situation of the country

Security
The state of feeling safe, stable and free from fear or anxiety
(OED)

UK Defence Policy
NSS identifies four Tier 1 events - 2 relevant
Hostile attacks on UK Cyber Space
International Military Crisis between states drawing in the UK, its allies and other states and non state actors
Maj Nick Colvin RE
Explain the implications for UK Defence Policy
Economical - Internal
Autocratic, atheistic, communist, capitalist and utilitarian
Corruption is endemic
Strong control over all aspects of life (Veg, 2015)
Media
Education
Internet
One Child Policy
No tolerance of dissent (Tuttle, 2015)
Political - Internal
Politics - External
Weak Foreign policy - Non interference and protection of "Sovereign" territory
Cause of uncertainty internationally in the Pacific Rim due to aggressive land and sea claims
Largest armed force in the region and world (2.3million personnel with $112 billion budget (Tan, 2014))
Ties with SCO, South America, Russia and Africa
Strong cyber capability
Poor West relationship (Janes, 2015)
Controlled centrally by the Government
Reserves of $4,000 billion (Obbema, 2015)
Extensive use of credit to boost national development (Lardy, 2015)
Growth gone from 10% to 7% this summer (Angang, 2015)
Economic - External
Supported the global economy since 2008 (Tan, 2014)
Free trade agreements with Africa and South America
Heavily Reliant on overseas resources for materials and energy (Janes, 2015)
Competing with US in Pacific for influence
Self Censorship - Great Fire Wall of China (Veg, 2015)
Under-development outside Beijing and Shanghai (Tan, 2014)
Strong Nationalist feeling and desire for Western Products (Obbema, 2015)
Discrimination against minorities and poor (Youwei, 2015)
Social - Internal
Social - External
Heavily controlled society - nationalistic and human rights concerns (Tan, 2014)
Insular country - hard to reach the people
Chinese prevalent round the world - linked with espionage (Obbema, 2015)
International interest in education
UK Defence Policy Implications
Strengths
Good trade opportunities - access to Commonwealth and infra projects
Still a credible nation - Soft and Hard Power
Counter Cyber capability
Strong ties with US, Japan, South Korea and India (Warren, 2014)

Weaknesses
Economically vulnerable
Competing for resources
Militarily small by comparison
Cyber security compromise
Strong ties with US, Japan etc.
Conclusion
China's strategic context and security factors
Political
Economic
Social
UK Defence Policy Implications
Strengths - Trade, influence, international relations
Weaknesses - Economy, military, cyber, international relations
Opportunities - Western culture, Investment, Education
Threats - infrastructure investment, Cyber, Territorial expansion
References
Opportunities
Western culture exportable - BBC, fashion (Warren, 2014)
Higher education
Investment opportunity
Regional Power - AIIB, SCO membership

Threats
UK key Infrastructure may become vulnerable
Cyber threat
China territorial expansion
Questions?
Angang, Hu. "Embracing China's New Normal." Foreign Affairs, May/June 2015: 8-12.
Clarke, Richard A. "How China Steals our Secrets." The New York Times, 2 April 2012.
Cohen, Jerome A. "The insecurity underpinning Xi Jinping’s repression." The Washington Post. 23 September 2015. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-insecure-underpinning-of-chinese-repression/2015/09/23/f8f33720-6092-11e5-9757-e49273f05f65_story.html (accessed September 29, 2015).
Janes. China - Executive Summary. 30 September 2015. https://janes.ihs.com/CustomPages/Janes/DisplayPage.aspx?ItemId=1303135&Pubabbrev=CNA (accessed October 6, 2015).
Lardy, Nicholas R. "False Alarm on Crisis in China." The New York Times, 26 August 2015.
Obbema, Fokke. China and the West. London: I.B.Tauris and Co. Ltd., 2015.
Tan, Andrew T H. "Why China is not a Global Power." The RUSI Journal, 4 November 2014: 42-50.
Tuttle, Gray. "China's Race Problem." Foreign Affairs, May/June 2015: 39-46.
Veg, Sebastian. "New Spaces, New Controls: China's Embryonic Public Sphere." Current History, September 2015: 203-209.
Warren, David. Does Britain Matter in East Asia? Research Paper, London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2014.
Youwei. "The End of Reform in China." Foreign Affairs, May/June 2015: 2-7.

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