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GSP12 Coming Breakthroughs in Computing

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by

Brad Templeton

on 14 October 2012

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Transcript of GSP12 Coming Breakthroughs in Computing

The Future of Computing What makes an exponential revolution?
Nobody who can tell you “no”
Open and hackable platforms with a culture of innovation
Insatiable market demand for doubling, little demand for incremental improvement
Stupid Networks with best efforts delivery
The internet cost contract and the “free” price
Free Space Optical (FSO) at 160 gigabits (Pisa)
THZ radio link at 1.5 Gbps, some day 30 Gbps
Time for “Glass Roots” to enable real competition Fiber now 110 tbits
per second with
DWDM





10 billion
calls at once! LAN Wireless Picocell approach offers unlimited bandwidth
Haas: Wireless through LED bulbs
Reardon claims “DIDO” system offers full bandwidth to every device in the room
Low power “personal area networks” coming Spectrum allocation becoming obsolete
But others want to auction and own it
Cognitive Radio
Whitespace
Network “management” & neutrality
Battles more political than technical
GPUs generating too much heat
Portability requires low power
Contact lens projector the holy grail
Registration on real world difficult
VR sports, gaming & shopping
Augmented/Alternate reality games In Graphics
Looking to
bridge the
"Uncanny Valley" User Interface Breakthroughs Replacement for the keyboard needed
Speech Recognition,, natural language & translate
Siri, Watson still have far to go
Gesture interfaces from 3-D cameras
Reading
Lips
Emotions
Gaze
Haptic feedback
Displays & touch
everywhere
All while small & efficient The ball-n-chain: System Administration
Is the Apple “walled garden” the only answer?
Challenges:
Improve performance in face of complexity
Provide real time operations
Virtual machines
Cloud computing and apps
Software development needs better re-use Ambient Intelligence Cheap sensors
MEMS based gyros, accelerometers
Temperature, current/magnetic fields, pressure
Nanotech chemical & DNA sensors
Tiny cameras & new camera technologies
Cheap processing
Open hardware like Arduino
Ultra low power embedded chips (1μa asleep)
Query powered (RFID)
No, not for the smart fridge – still looking for the pony
"Location Everywhere..." Chalcogenide RAM Coded Aperture Camera Challenges in interoperability and competition
Will the market accept one dominant “AOL” site for everything?
The challenge of “too much signal.”
How does privacy survive?
Ease of use vital
Global trends seen in streams:
Twitter analysis predicts movie gross
Critical mass vs. open
Distributed efforts have uphill battle The Controlled Platform Less Controlled
Monopoly Platform One site for everything The Giant Gateway to the Web
(but also Facebook) One Store,
One Big Cloud A Vast, Usually Interoperable Bazaar Who will win?
Who should win? Online Commerce Superb realism
People buying online from competitor while in physical store
Retailers pray for location based services
Delivery robots promise anything in 30 minutes Take-aways Ubiquitous networking is coming, if we have the political will
Ubiquitous mobile computing needs new user interfaces
A battle looms between open and controlled models of computing and business Brad Templeton, Computing Track Chair Fabrication
Extend 193 nm refractive (lens) lithography
Optical proximity correction
Double patterning

Prepare 13 nm EUV lithography
Soft X-rays, vacuum chambers
New source, mirrors, masks, resists, inspection equipment Transistors
New materials in gate, insulator, channel
New topologies





Heroic measures, $B fabs Keeping Moore’s Law Going 2010-20: High Volume Miracles, on Schedule 6/29/2010 But landlines peaked at 1.3B Mobile is now 10% of internet and
8% of eCommerce
1B smartphone and
1B 3G worldwide
Fraction of ad spend is much lower, 5x lower CPMs
Change is coming, Android is winning market share, IOS $-share How does the stupid internet work?

"Packet" is just a block of bytes with a target address and unverified return address
Router knows which other router is likely best way to get to that target address
Everything else is built on top of that!
Full transcript