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Infrastructure Development in Macau and Pearl River Delta Region

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by

Jason NI

on 24 June 2014

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Transcript of Infrastructure Development in Macau and Pearl River Delta Region

Goals
To provide strategic understanding, proposals and recommendations for all infrastructure projects involving Sands China’s properties and transportation of our customers and our team members, within the S.A.R of Macau and all surrounding territories involving Air/Land and Sea connections to/from the S.A.R of Macau.

Any other issues pertinent to strategic planning as dictated by the Executive of Sands China.

MACAU
To Know ~
Mega Infrastructure in Macau & Pearl River Delta: Implications and Impacts.
Jason Ni, Ph.D.
To Evaluate/Forecast ~
Today's Agenda
H-M-Z Bridge
The 4th Linkage
Relocation of Macau Ferry Terminal + 5 New Zones + Sea Transport
Macau Light Rail + Regional Rail
New Border Gate (YaChong River)
Cotai Development and Hengqin
24-hr Border Crossing
Forecast of Future Tourist/Capacity Limit
Control of Casino Shuttle Bus
Beijing's Control of Entry Permit and $
To Respond ~
"Customize" the Impact Evaluation based on various Departments' Concern & Interest (Define Impact: passenger; farebox; revenue on the table/VIP Room?)

Statistical Modeling (MNL, NL) on Behavior Change (e.g., what will happen after the HZM Bridge open?)
It's all about people & transportation ~
How MUCH and How SOON people will adopt the behavior change??
Passive
Re-arrange Transportation Service, Logistic, and Marketing Strategies based on the Estimated Impacts.
Active
Negotiate w. Macau Government to achieve better arrangement for Venetian/Sands. (or some Win-Win Situation)
Infrastructure
Gov. Policy
NOTE:
Some materials will be presented in Chinese - to keep the originality.
Above issues might be known to us (more or less) at this time-being. However, info. is incomplete and changing.
It is extremely important for us to keep following up above issues, especially from now to 2016, to ensure our business (growth).
Next Step
Based on today's discussion, I will collect/confirm more info. - to fulfill the need/concern of various departments (Especially Cotai Ferry).

Initial Impact Evaluation/Analysis based on 2nd-hand info.
Info Sources & Research Capability
Research Teams: City U. of HK, University of Hong Kong, etc.
Consulting Companies: PB, Arup, AECom, etc.
Local Leaders and Gov. friends in Macau
(DSAT, GIT, GDI, DST, Dept. City Planning, etc.)
Local Leaders and Gov. friends in HK
(MTR, etc.)
Description :
The HZMB Main Bridge is a 29.6km dual 3-lane carriageway in the form of bridge-cum-tunnel structure comprising an immersed tunnel of about 6.7 km. According to the current option, it runs from the artificial island off Gongbei of Zhuhai to the eastern artificial island for the tunnel section just west of the HKSAR boundary.

The project includes:
1. Construction of a 29.6 km dual three-lane carriageway in the form of bridge-cum-tunnel structure comprising a tunnel of about 6.7 km;
2. Construction of 2 artificial islands for the tunnel landings west of the HKSAR boundary. (the Gongbei artificial island is NOT part of the Main Bridge!)

Current Status:
The procedures for registration of the HZMB Authority were completed in July 2010. At present, the HZMB Authority commenced the construction of tunnel and artificial islands as well as bridges.

The target completion date (open for traffic) of the HZMB Main Bridge project is in 2016!
Main Bridge
HK Side Bridge
Bridge + Border Facility + Connector
Separated CIQ
Gongbei Artificial Island (216.4 hectare): Border Facility
Another border gate (in addition to Gongbei, Lotus) to accept
[1] International Tourist (from HKG)
[2] Mainland Tourist (from Zhuhai)

No direct link to Taipa (unless the 4th Linkage, which will happen AFTER 2016)
GongBei Tunnel to further connect to inner Zhuhai.
Open w. HZMB in 2016!
Project Objective:
In order to connect the HZMB to the traffic network of Hong Kong directly and effectively, a series of transport facilities will be implemented in Hong Kong. The proposed 12 km long Hong Kong Link Road (HKLR) is one of these facilities and will connect the HZMB with the Hong Kong Boundary Crossing Facilities.

The HKLR will be completed in phase with the HZMB Main Bridge and the other related transport facilities in Hong Kong. It will open in 2016.
ISSUES
Will HKG become "THE" International Airport for Macau, after the opening of HZMB?
ASSUMPTION
Doubtful
~ because [1] HK wants tourists to pass thru HK (refuse the double-Y proposal of HZMB); [2] The CIQ of HZMB is not even at the same building as HKG.
The attraction for people taking HKG-HZMB-Macau will not be significant, especially when HKG-Macau Ferry still exist.
Plus, Macau Airport has expansion plan..
HZMB: Daily Volume Forecast
[Feasibility Study]:
2016: Between 9,200 ~ 14,000 veh/day (median 11,600 veh/day)
2035: Between 35,700 ~ 49,200 veh/day (median 42,450 veh/day)
[Long-term Forecast]:
After 20 years of completion: Between 50,000 ~60,000 veh/day
HZMB: Mode Transfer
Assume:
Macau Ferry vs. Taipa Ferry = 2: 1
Assume:
HZMB vs. ALL Ferry = 65% vs. 35%
(based on HH Survey)
Assume:
HZMB vs. Taipa Ferry = 90% vs. 10%
(currently 90% ferry using Macau Terminal are from HK)
Real Behavior Change can be surveyed and modeled
Based on information of Macau DSSOPT, the 4th linkage between Macau and Taipa will be most likely the undersea tunnels.
4th Linkage: 3 lanes; 2 directions
AB Linkage: 2 lanes; 2 directions
3 Options for Macau Ferry Terminal
Cross Seaway ~
LRT
GIT:
21 km long with 21 stations.
3-6 min headway
7800 passenger/hr/dir (MAX)
Phase 1
Phase 2
Long-term
GIT:
5km long (9 stations)
Designed to achieve an inner ring of Macau peninsula
Transportation HUB
Barra
Taipa (Jockey Club)
Underground Shuttle Bus Parking
Regional Rail/HSR
New Border Gate
Station on LRT Phase 2
Connect to Guangzhou-Zhuhai City Rail
NEW Border Facility can handle 200,000~250,000 ppl/day
Plus, current (OLD) Border Capacity = 500,000 ppl/day!
CIQ Staff approved by Beijing
Cotai Development
Plus ~
Government housing (S. of Cotai), which is expected to cause population re-distribution; traffic pattern change. (thus, the new bus network/service)
Hengqin Development
Relocate Employee (i.e., dorm) to justify new shuttle bus route?
Control Casino Shuttle
Director Wong (DSAT): Casino shuttle is helpful and essential for Macau; but needs to be regulated.
24-hr Border Crossing
Macau government wants the Extended/24-hr Border Crossing (Gongbei, YaChong River, Lotus) - to ease current pressure, especially in peak hour.
More people leave Macau in mid-night
More people come to Macau in mid-night
DST: Another reason for 24-hr is to increase the hotel turnover. DST realized the hotel rooms are booked but empty at night. 24-hr Border Crossing can let the "Gamblers" leave any time they want, and leave the rooms for the "Tourists" with longer stay in Macau.
CAPACITY of Accommodation
29 Million/YEAR ~
Study since 2003 (Macau Tourism Institute)
2011 Report: The Best # is - 79,000 ~ 81,000 tourists/day
Times 365 to get 29 million tourists per year
Beijing's Control
Currently we have many permit types to enter Macau
Large-scale limitation on FIT is not likely - since it will be a political issue.
Limitation on (high-level) Gov. Official
People
Money Laundering
Illegal $ transfer (junket, underground wiring, etc.)
Capital Control: Keep Chinese's $ in "China" (no good for foreign casino)
$$
In past, VIP = 75%(+) of Total Casino Revenue
In 2012, VIP = 70% of Total Casino Revenue (38B USD)
WHO should we Target? in next 5 - 10 years
Mass Market (middle class; non-gaming; family)
Mid-Level Chinese Gov. Official (they can come but need to get approved, usually 1-day free out of their convention visit)
Some "REAL Gambler" - every night FULL flight from Macau to Bangkok... for visa extension!

But HOW?
TRANSPORTATION!!
HKIA
: International Hub, Door to the whole world
Macau
: Low-Cost Carrier (LCC) and Private Jet (lowest and top people)
Shenzhen
(plus, future
Zhuhai
): Domestic, Door to China
HZMB will link HK, Macau, and Zhuhai to form "airport cluster". (as three terminals in a giant PRD AIRPORT)

CONCLUSION
Change is coming
Diversification (Gov's goal; it should be in 2022's gaming concession renewal)
Completion of Infrastructure (government, private, etc.)


So, it is all about -
Best allocating limited resources using available infrastructure to provide transportation services.
Use transportation to reach the "RIGHT CROWD", to change the composition of our customer, and to ensure the profits and growth. (the "QUALITY customer")

Airport Analysis on Pearl River Delta Region
Capacity Comparison
Composition of Daily Flight
Master Plan of Pearl River Delta Region
THANK YOU !
Full transcript