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Copy of Austerity
George Liuon 26 January 2013
Transcript of Copy of Austerity
The enormity of its previous spending binge
The inflexibility of the euro
Government corruption If you're interested: Follow me: http://seekingalpha.com/author/george-liu Spending got us in this mess, cutting will get us out
Aid-for-austerity Austerity: lowering spending via a reduction in the amount of benefits and public services provided. Get heavily indebted countries in financial order Change future expectations about taxes and government spending; increase investor confidence Economic expansion Does it work? Greece Societal Ramifications In the first four months of 2012, the suicide rate for the poor and elderly in Greece increased 33% Y/Y
Greeks are now raiding forests for wood to heat homes
Usage of anti-depressant drugs has skyrocketed 25% in Athens and 18% across all of Greece.
November 7 austerity measures were met with nationwide protests by hundreds of thousands of Greeks
Shut down public transportation, schools, banks, and local government offices. The U.K is in the European Union but uses its own currency: the pound
Huge advantage in ability to conduct monetary policy and print currency
U.K. economy was slowly recovering from the 2008-2009 financial crisis
The government under Gordon Brown’s Labour party introduced fiscal stimulus in coordination with monetary stimulus from the Bank of England.
Annual GDP was growing at about 2.5 per cent. Before Austerity Then this guy happened... George Osborne, the Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne Huge advocate of fiscal austerity
Implements austerity policy with deep cuts
Cuts of ~30% to some government departments
Promised his austerity policies would:
Put the U.K back in fiscal order
Generate healthy economic growth
Has stubbornly continued austerity measures to this day Economic result U.K entered its longest double-dip recession recession in 50 years
2010 GDP growth: +1.5%
2011 GDP growth: +0.7%
2012 GDP growth (OBR estimate): -0.2%
Previous growth estimate: +0.8% Fiscal result 2009 OBR estimate of 2013 budget deficit: 3.5% of GDP
Current estimate: 6.1%
Osborne: Debt-to-GDP ratio will peak at 70%
Current Debt-to-GDP ratio: 75%
OBR projected 2015-2016 Debt-to-GDP ratio: ~80%
UK is expected to lose its "AAA" credit rating from at least one credit rating agency
Extending austerity measures until at least 2018 because the government missed its self-imposed debt-cutting goals IMF: Austerity isn't working IMF analysis: Cutting the deficit too aggressively could increase the debt-to-GDP ratio
Austerity has caused far more economic damage expected
Expected that cutting a euro from the budget would cost around 50 cents in lost growth, the actual cost was ~1.50 euros
Christine Lagarde: severe austerity does not work Cut deficit spending
Cut our enormous national debt
We're going to default
Look at what over-spending did to Greece We do not have a debt problem We do not have a spending problem We do not have a fiscal crisis Deficit hawks have been predicting a debt crisis for years
Downgrade of the U.S. debt= "meltdown."
Reality: Record-low mortgage rates, lower borrowing costs, lower Treasury yields,
Negative cost of borrowing for 20 years
It is impossible for us to default
Full control of currency and monetary policy We do have an economic problem 3