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Copy of Butterfly Effect
Transcript of Copy of Butterfly Effect
Robert Down Elementary Problem Implementation Models Results Assumptions If it is sunny
and 71 Weather Impacts Attendance If it is cloudy
and 50 PTA fundraiser for 4 PG public schools What is optimum mix of food booths to
maximize event profits? 2012 Food Booth
Configuration Key assumptions: •Attendance is directly linked to weather conditions.
•Each person attending the bazaar will buy one food item.
•All food booths only sell one type of food item.
•Most food vendors will contribute 20% of their revenue from sales to the PTA.
•3,000 people attend event on beautiful days and 1,500 people attend event on cold overcast days. Questions? Annual Pacific Grove Butterfly Parade and Bazaar Attendance Simulations 50 degrees 1500 people
71 degrees 3000 people
Simulation expected value is 2297 people Optimization Model Objective Function Optimization Model Decision Variables and Constraints The So What... Improved Butterfly Bazaar practices Organization & Optimization Optimization Says... Decision Analysis $619.00H + $177.58J + $379.12T + $443.94M + $367.21C + $309.62P + $318.23N + $207.31S + $221.92F + $187.56K + $218.82B + $187.56I ... boom Maximize Profit: All variables are binary! Comparison with last year Implementation Endstate: Recommendations Maximax/Maximin Equally Likely/ Minimax Regret