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Demographic Transition Model

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by

Madeline Jones

on 30 May 2014

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Transcript of Demographic Transition Model

Demographic Transition
Model
What?
The DTM is a model that describes population change over time.
Who?
The DTM was created by the demographer Warren Thompson.
When?
It was created in 1929.
Where?
Warren was an American, but his model is applicable to the whole world.
Why?
This model was created so that geographers could categorize countries based on what stage of the model they are in.
The Stages of The Demographic Transition Model
Stage One ("Malthusian Stalemate")
Characterized by:
very slow population growth
high death rate due to disease and famine
lack of sanitation
minority of children survived childhood
This stage takes place in pre-modern times when there is a balance between birth and death rates.
Stage Two
Characterized by:
increase in food availability
better sanitation and medical treatment
more technology
increased female literacy
increasingly youth based population
This stage takes place during urbanization and industrialization when there is a rise in population, decline in death rate, and increase in birth rates.
Stage Three
Characterized by:
children living and parents having less kids
having children becomes more expensive
women's attitude towards having kids changes
people begin to have children only to replace themselves towards the end of this stage
this is countered by the fact that there is still a large population from stage two
This stage takes place during a mature industrial era and has a decline in birth rate.
Stage Four
Characterized by:
in some instances population decline
overall parents have smaller families
This stage takes place in a post industrial era.
Stage Five
Characterized by:
low birth rates
small rise in death rate due to large elderly population
negative population growth
rise in individualism due to smaller population
women working full time jobs and having careers
This stage is characterized by the aging and decline of a population.
Pros
Helps to organize regions of the earth into stages based upon population
Cons
New stages are going to constantly be needed due to the fact that populations are constantly changing
It does not factor in immigration or emigration which both affect population size
It's outdated
There are exceptions to the model
It's not a perfect system
Issues Related to the Demographic Transition Model
Problems in Fifth Stage Countries (ex. Japan and Germany)
Due to a large elderly population an increased medical staff and industry is required.
A solution could be to have countries reevaluate their medical systems and invest in lifestyle based services (i.e. public gyms, parks, programs focusing on healthy habits, increased access to healthy foods) so that less people require a hospital so soon after retirement.
There also is a working shortage due to the fact that the majority of people are retired.
To remedy this countries try to get young people (workers) to immigrate to their country.
This proves difficult due to immigration agreements and the fact that these places aren't always the most attractive places to move to young people.
One example is Japan, where difficult policies for immigrants deters people from immigrating there.
This also is controversial because many countries (the above included) have pressure to not hire foreigners due to economic nationalism.
One example of a graph based upon this model
Please note that the data for Stage 5 is not concrete
Questions
Do you think the Demographic Transition Model accurately represents the way populations change over time? Why or why not?
What do you think Stage 6 will be characterized by? Why?
The US is currently in Stage 4, when do you think we will transition into Stage 5? Explain.
What are some issues present in populations in the earlier stages of development? How can they be fixed?

Population Pyramids for Each Stage
By Madeline Jones
Full transcript