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Tourism Risk Assessment Methodlogy
Transcript of Tourism Risk Assessment Methodlogy
Dependent on Judgement of Assessor
Difficult to compare assets Numeric results
Provides basis for comparing assets
Relies on accurate information Type of Risk Assessments Safety Hazards Safety Hazards Natural Accidental Security Hazards Types of Security Threats
Saboteurs Common Factors Safety Hazards Security Hazards Assets Surety Risk Assessment Process A Continuous Risk Assessment Process Step 6: Determine opportunity for hazard occurring Step 12: Manage Risk Step 4: Identify Vulnerabilities Step 1: Define Assets, Activities, and Critical Services Step 8: Threat Assessment "Surety (in a risk model) is taking responsibility for all hazardous acts and evaluating their importance in a relative risk model." Risk is the “effect of uncertainty on objectives”
Risk management refers to a coordinated set of activities and methods that is used to direct an organization and to control the many risks that can affect its ability to achieve objectives.
(ISO 31000) Standards from regulations, local statutes, industry accepted practices...usually developed after a tragedy Consequences Vulnerabilities Step 2: Define Consequences Step 3: Rate Consequences Step 5: Develop Design Basis Threat Step 7: Perform Qualitative Risk evaluation Step 9: Evaluate Surety (Safety and Security) Measures Step 10: Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis Step 11: Prioritize Risks Assets, Activities, and Services Consequences Vulnerabilities of Reputation - Atmosphere
Safety and Security
L'esprit-de-place QUALITATIVE QUANTITATIVE Tangible
Structures or Building
Services (Customer Service)
Activity and the Experience
Atmosphere, Ambiance, or Hospitality Countermeasures People at Risk
Exposure to Liability
Reputation Loss PAR:
What is the average occupancy of the casino at peak hours?
What is an estimate of the number of people that pass through the casino at peak hours?
How many employees are working in the casino at peak hours?
What is the average daily revenue?
What is the gross average daily payroll?
What might be the average # of lawsuits?
What might be the average # of criminal acts or thefts that occur in the casino? (Daily, weekly, monthly…etc…)
What is the average # of assaults that could result in civil lawsuits and estimate monetary damages?
How is the casino rated amongst its peers?
How might high rollers be effected?
Structural design and reliability
Socio-political conflict or unrest
Health and Illness
Food and Drink:
Exposure during preparation
Exposure during serving
Medium for transmitting illness
Spoilage (storage and temperature)
Public Vehicles, Airline, Planes
Volume (the number of passengers)
Driver or Pilot standards
Utilities and Infrastructure
Dependability, capacity, redundancy, and criticality Activity and Resulting Experience
Information Failure (Poor quality, failure of dissemination)
Susceptibility to Illness
Size and Crowd Accommodation or Control
Delay, Cancellation, or non-event
Reputation – drawing people to the event
Staff Failure or Human Failure – poor service, tampering, theft, or unavailable staff
Lack of training or knowledge
Goodwill or organizational culture
Attitude or hospitality
Quantity of service or staff Sense of anonymity in the crowd
Illness or Contamination
Dependency on electricity Theft:
Cheating or Card Counting
Collusion or Collaboration (Employee)
Network Attack (Cyber)
Indirect Contamination 1.Are the targets or components easily identifiable?
2.Is there a high volume of opportunity to target or realization of opportunities to target?
3.What level of effort (to include expertise, tools, or resources) is required to conduct the attack? Robbery:
Identifiable = Yes
Opportunity = High
Effort = Very High (to achieve high consequences)
Spread of Illness:
Identifiable = Yes
Opportunity = High
Resources = Low Capability?
Law Enforcement Spread
Assume Hurricane Katrina - 2004 Hurricane Sandy - 2012 Tsunami - 2004 Delhi Violence against women - 2013 Violence in Northern Mexico, 2005 - ?? Costa Concordia, 2012 Egyptian Revolution, 2011 Greek Crisis and Protest, 2010 Risk Management Combining Safety and Security Surety Risk Process Weather
Volcanos Health and Illness
Government and Law
Electricity TANGIBLE Intangible Risk Management Threats Bally's Example: Casino Identifying Casino Consequences Potential Vulnerabilities of the Casino Potential DBTs for the Casino Opportunity Evaluation of the Casino Qualitative Evaluation of the Casino Evaluating Threats to the Casino Robbery - Organized Crime
Very High due to the presence of all factors; history, capability, motivation, resources, and intent to target Las Vegas casinos. Illness - Flu
Moderate due largely to excellent spread opportunity (resources are present) and capability exists in the Casino, but limited due to the low national infection rates since we are nearing the end of the ‘flu season’. Suggested Surety Evaluation Team for the Casino Prioritized Risks for the Casino Quantitative Risk for the Casino Example of Reducing Risk for the Casino Design Basis Threat (DBT) is a specific method of tactics, techniques, and procedures or specifically a failure cause to a specific asset, activity or service. www.securitymgtsolutions.com www.armet.securitymgtsolutions.com by William Foos