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Risk & Uncertainty

Pres for management and risk
by

Sean Page

on 22 April 2010

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Transcript of Risk & Uncertainty

Risk and Uncertainty Group 4 Sean Page Kirsty Sheppard Calum Budge Andy Marsden Defining Risk Defining Risk "...Where a condition exists in which there is a
possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired
outcome that is expected or hoped for" Commercial risk Long Term risk Short term risk Financial risk Technical risk Investment risk Health & Safety risk CAN THESE BE MANAGED?* Risk & Uncertainty In Industry Insurance Investment brokers "the effect of uncertainty on objectives whether postitive or negative." Betting agencies (bookies) Weather Banks Risk In Industry How Do they attempt to manage risk?* Aviation Agricultural Shipping Travel Sport Transport 5- Develop and implement a plan for controlling the risks and achieving the reductions. Risk Management 1- Identify the potential sources of risk on the project. 2- Determine their individual impact, and select those with a significant impact for further analysis. 3- Assess the overall impact of the significant risks.
4- Determine how the likelihood or impact of the risk can be reduced. "Risk management is the process by which the likelihood of risk occourring or its impact on the project is reduced" Risk Management Techniques for Identifying Risk What do we think about this framework?* How would we go about doing it? * Nuclear Power Expert Judgment Plan Decomposition Assumption analysis Decision drivers Brainstorming Data Analysis Assets existing controls Assessment of consequences Assessment of incident likelihoods Qualitative/Quantitative risk estimation Risk Treatment Options for risk treatment: Risk reduction Risk retention Risk avoidance Risk transfer Risk COmmunication Decision Not To Be Involved Acceptance of the burden/loss from a particular Sharing The Risk Exchange or share information on risk Actions to lessen the probability, negatvie consequence
or both, associated with a risk Risk tolerance Readiness to bare the risk after treatments Risk Management Risk Treatment Examples Examples Unforeseeable? Flights,Ferries & France Eyjafjallajokull Contingencies? Nodar Kumaritashvili Foreseeable Dire Consequences AMARNTH Unusual & Unpredictable Natural Disasters Experts Involved after the event $420mil per day (average) Total = $6bil loss Identification of: threats vulnerabilities Consequences Risk Estimation Once identified how do we treat?* Any examples of Poor management of risk?*
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