Mathematics of Gambling

Mathematics of Gambling

Foundations 12: General Research Project

By: Lyyli Kennedy and Lauren Benson

(special kind of intelligence about risk and uncertainty)

Types of Gamblers:

1. Problem/Leisure/Expert

EXPERT: PURSUIT OF PROFIT players

-poker

- black jack

- sports betting (computerized/old fashioned)

"Its not about knowing all the facts, its about the right amount of confidence in a situation and know when and when not to bet"

Decision Making

1. Set a Threshold

2. Bet Sizing

3. Expected Value

Odds

-ratios of a player's chances of winning or losing, or the average frequency of a loss to the average frequency of a win.

True Story:

Real MIT BLACKJACK TEAM DURING THE 1990S

Games: Black Jack - Counting Cards

When

• This team was first started in the 1960s and after than different teams were made using the same name
• The MIT Blackjack Team from the movie were the team formed in the 1990s ( group of students and ex-students from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Harvard Business School, Harvard University)
• Used the strategy of counting cards to beat casinos at the game of blackjack and made hundreds of thousands

Example -

If a player owns one 1 of 4 tickets in a draw, his/her probability is 1 in4 but his/her odds are 3 to 1.

Where

Gambling can happen anywhere and at any time!

For example:

• Small bets with friends
• Making life decisions
• At a casino
• Etc..

• Known as a casino strategy to determine whether the next hand to be dealt will be a advantage for the player or the dealer
• "against the house"

Rules

High Cards (10 -Ace) Value -1

Low Cards (2-6) Value +1

The Rest (7-9)value 0

Cheat / BS / I Doubt It!

21

HOW - Conceptions of GAMBLING

Anywhere!

Most commonly in casinos

• Slot machines
• Card games

At home

• Playing cards with friends
• Betting on sports teams

At events!

• Auctions
• 50/50 draws
• Raffles

Card counting isn't considered illegal... BUT if you are going to do it... it is best not to be known as one!

BlackJack/21: Beatable/Profitable

All Because...Jimmy got a job at google

• Chance/Risk
• Change constantly
• Costs YOU money
• House advantage
• Winning (Short Term)
• Skills (involved or not needed)

Why

???

House Advantage/ % of BUSTS

"ITS NOT JUST ABOUT BETTING AGAINST THE ODDS"

I ASK YOU ( AUDIENCE)

When you gamble... you want to win!

Probability

Probability - Risk Intelligence

What?

-an estimate of the chance of winning divided by the total number of chances available

-an ordinary fraction that can also be expressed as a %

Example:

If there are 4 tickets in a draw and a player owns one of them, their probability of winning is 1 in 4 or 25% or 0.25

Expert Gambler " There will always be another Race"

Vocabulary : The Basics

Gamble: an enterprise undertaken or attempted with a risk of loss and a chance of profit or success.

Odds: the chances or likelihood of something happening or being the case

Probability: the extent to which an event is likely to occur, measured by the ratio of the favorable cases to the whole number of cases possible.

What We Learned?

Mathematics of Gambling and the Law

Lauren

- Before this project, I already knew the world of gambling (father worked in the industry of sports betting) But now, I think it is more clear to me this connection of math and gambling is larger then I even thought and how gamblers minds work is very interesting. I also really want to watch the movie 21 again! I enjoyed this project.

Lyyli

- I didn't really know much about the mathematics involved in gambling before this research project, I suppose I just knew there was math involved but didn't understand to what extent. It's amazing how much people can use math to their advantage!

DID THAT WOW YOU

GAMBLING

GAMBLING + MATH = CHANGING THE GAME

Conclusion

START AT 3:53

10 Myths/Facts About Gambling

References

1. All of the numbers on a roulette wheel add up to 666 (known as "The Devils Game"

2. Approximately 5% of people who gamble will become gambling addicts ( 84% of all gamblers are men)

3. Gambling is one of the oldest known pursuits of mankind.

4. Dice were used to decided territory.

5. The more you gamble, the more likely it is that you’ll have a big win

6. Knowing a game well increases your chances of winning.

7. If you keep playing for long enough, you’ll eventually win all your money back

8. Young people don’t have gambling problems

9. If you are good at math you will be good at gambling

10. Counting Cards can be done by yourself

Get Gambling Facts. (2015). Retrieved May 24, 2015, from http://getgamblingfacts.ca/how-gambling-really-works/

Khoury, A. (2008, July 10). Counting Cards in Blackjack. Retrieved May 24, 2015, from

Evans, D. (2012, August 19). What Can We Learn From Expert Gamblers?: Dylan Evans at TEDxWestlake. Retrieved May 24, 2015, from

Risks of Gambling - Aquarius. (2014, January 15). Retrieved May 24, 2015, from http://aquarius.org.uk/gambling/risk-and-harms/risks-of-gambling/

Gambling myths. (2010). Retrieved May 24, 2015, from http://www.rgrc.org/en/problem-gambling/gambling-myths

The Ultimate Guide to Counting Cards | CasinoTop10. (2010). Retrieved May 24, 2015, from http://www.casinotop10.net/card-counting-guide

21 Twenty One The Movie 2008 Movies. (2015, March 10). Retrieved May 24, 2015, from