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Copy of Cage Match
"On this day, we come to proclaim an end to the petty grievances and false promises, the recriminations and worn-out dogmas that for far too long have strangled our politics."
- President Obama in his first Inaugural Address
“It’s one of the few regrets of my presidency – that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better. There’s no doubt a president with the gifts of Lincoln or Roosevelt might have better bridged the divide, and I guarantee I’ll keep trying to be better so long as I hold this office.”
- President Obama 2016 State of the Union
Did Dickinson get
Obama's second term "right?"
Cage Match
The President and Congress
in a Polarized Era
Senate
Invitation to Struggle
Constitutional parameters
Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) at -0.389
marks median of the Democratic caucus.
Deb Fischer (R-NE) at 0.549 marks the Republican median.
Electoral institutions
Electoral alliances and legislative alliances
"Among members of the 113th Congress, President Obama is very ideologically close to Representatives Stephen Lynch (D-MA) [-0.355] and Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) [-0.352] in the House, and Senators Charles Schumer (D-NY) [-0.350] and Mark Udall (D-CO) [-0.353] in the Senate" (https://voteviewblog.com).
Inconsistent partisan messages
House
Conditional Party Government
Aldrich and Rohde (1991) and Rohde (1991)
But I'm -0.3!
How am I going
to do this?
The median of the Democratic Party
is -1.317.
Median of the Republican Party
is 0.993.
Fenno
(1977)
Presidential Victories on Votes in Congress, 1953-2013
Effects of Polarization on Chief Legislator?
Limits the progress of the legislative presidency.
So, what do presidents do?
Polarization =
Gridlock =
INABILITY TO LIVE UP TO CAMPAIGN PROMISES
Make gains early and strategically
The drifting of the bases affects presidents' ability to coalition build both in the electorate and in Congress.
Go it alone
The relationship between the president’s share of votes in a member’s constituency and level of support for the president on roll-call votes is negative.
Define the "opponent"