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Bushehr was completed by Siemens to 85 %.
Iran’s technical sector—including the controversial nuclear program—depends heavily upon German products and services
Most of the software for the nuclear program was developed in Germany.
UNICEF: 500,000 children under five had died, as a result of sanctions on the country, between 1991 and 1998.
P5 + 1 + X
Guidelines
1979: U.S. Embargo by Executive Order
4 steps to peace
Joint Cooperation
Transparency
1987: U.S. Embargo acclerates
?
- Freezing about $12 billion in Iranian assets, including bank deposits, gold and other properties
Embargo on importation and exportation of any goods or services from Iran.
Confidence Building
S-S-S
Rationality
Sanctions
X
History
A never ending story?
Ever evolving environment
Certainty of uncertainty
The Sanction Regime
Rationality
A > B
S-S-S
Dual-Track Strategy
Black Swans
Strike
Sanction
Stand
Stand
1984: Iran-Iraq War
P5 + 1
UNSC & P5+1
"An irrational regime can't survive for more than 30 years"
"I don't think you can rely on Iran. I don't think you can rely on other radicals like the Taliban. They dispatched Al Qaida to bomb New York and Washington. What were they thinking? Were they that stupid? They weren't stupid. There is an irrationality there, and there is madness in this method."
Benjamin Netanjahu
Spring 2003 Proposal
Karim Sadjadpour
Present
Complete weapon embargo
Complete freeze of assistance
Nuclear Balance?
What level or uncertainty are you willling to accept to ensure the survival of your country?
2006
2003
2013
2010
Saudi Arabia
Egypt
Turkey
2005
Iran
Balance of nuclear power
USA
Israel
Likeliness of unlikeliness
Opportunity to focus on other policy issues
MAD does not apply.
+1
Short- or medium term stability in the Middle East is an illusion
EU3 - Iran Proposals
U.S./Comprehensive Iran Sanctions Accountability Act
&
EU Sanctions
2006
Deterrence and containment policy comes at very high costs
1.) Geopolitical contradiction
2.) Massive deployment of additional forces
3.) De facto invulnerability
3.) De facto inevitable A-proliferation
Most important for the US:
Enormous loss of credibility
4.1 billion
410 million
Strike
Sanction
"The two sides remained far apart on the substance of the talks, but for the first time that I've seen (there was) a real back and forth between us, where we are able to discuss details to post questions and get answers directly."
Catherine Ashton
Economic impact
If a regime is determined to get the bomb, then they will do so.
Broadest consensus among the P5+1+X
Who is actually affected by the sanctions?
B > A
The decades pass and pass. And so does the credibility of the U.S.
Breakeven
A > B
400
?
$
27,4 %
200,000
Highest possible retaliation
Set the region on fire (?)
Credibility (?)
Window of opportunity
Destroy or delay
Overwhelming firepower
Middle Class
98 %
37000:1
28000:1
30 %
Q&A
1/10
5/10
63 %