The Gravity Migration Model

THE GRAVITY MODEL

BY: HALIM, MIYABI, FILIPPO

Georg Ernst Ravenstein

The Model's Inception

Henri Guillaume Desart

- Belgium railway engineer

- Founder of the Gravity Model

- Basis of collection and anlysis

Georg Ernst Ravenstein

- Geographer & Cartographer

- Gravity Model very old system

- Used for ideas & commodities

- Based off of Newton

- Ernst used it for migration

- Predicted UK local migration

- Established "Laws of Migration"

1834-1913

Improvements that can be made

Advantages of the Gravity Model

- simple equation which is easy for countries to estimate how much of a pull they have to refugees or migrants coming from different countries.

- You can compare two or more different countries to see which country has the most attraction to other countries.

- The other advantage of this model is that it takes account two different variables of the model which is the distance and the population. These two variables are essential.

THE GRAVITY MODEL

BY: HALIM, MIYABI, FILIPPO

Disadvantages of the Gravity Model

- One of the strongest Disadvantages of this model is that other Push and Pull factors are not listed other than the distance and the population.

- This is just an estimate of the attraction between two cities or countries and cannot be one hundred percent reliable.

- distance is merely not a problem nowadays due to transportations and technology.

- Also, sometimes it is the the refugee’s choice if they can go to the country or not.

Context of the Syrian Refugee Crisis

- Happened because of a civil war outbreak in March 2011.

- According to the United Nations Refugee Agency, UNHCR, the number of refugees in july 2015 was 4,013,000 people.

- 7.6 million syrians are displaced in their own country.

- Our goal through this project is to predict and help Syrian Refugee's be displaced in the ideal areas.

How can the Gravity Model be applied to the Syrian Refugee Crisis?

- The Gravity model can be used for calculate the attractive force (gravity) between the two countries or cities, one the host, which are negotiating with bringing in refugees.

- Now what we will do is we will see how many migrants feel “attracted” to Van, Istanbul, and Gaziantep respectively:

According to the Turkish ministry of Interior, Istanbul hosts the largest number of Syrian Refugees even though it does not have any official Refugee camps. Istanbul hosts 330,000 Syrian refugees. Also, gaziantep, which came in second in this research also was the second most Refugee populated city with 220,000 syrian refugees. The fact that Syrian Refugees are residing in Istanbul the most even though there are no refugee camps in Istanbul might most likely mean that Istanbul is one of the ideal places for Syrian refugees to stay which was proved by the calculations of the gravity model.

Works Cited

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DIAGRAM OF MIGRATION MODEL

Exponential Distance Decay

Filippo, Miyabi, and Halim

Iswaag Newton Says:

Gravity

“The Gravitational force between any two bodies is directly proportional to their masses, and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between them”

1643-1727

Explanation

of the Model