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Trend Conversations and Foresight - A Presentation to the LGMA Conference Sept 2016

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Paul Higgins

on 7 September 2016

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Transcript of Trend Conversations and Foresight - A Presentation to the LGMA Conference Sept 2016

Trend Conversations
Foresight and
Strategy

Thinking About
the
Future

3P
s
Process
Preparedness
Strategy by
Experimention or Diversity
Scanning
Structured
Strategy
Most large organizations embrace the idea of invention, but are not willing to suffer the string of failed experiments necessary to get there. Outsized returns often come from betting against conventional wisdom, and conventional wisdom is usually right. Given a ten percent chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time. But you’re still going to be wrong nine times out of ten. We all know that if you swing for the fences, you’re going to strike out a lot, but you’re also going to hit some home runs
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=97664&p=irol-SECText&TEXT=aHR0cDovL2FwaS50ZW5rd2l6YXJkLmNvbS9maWxpbmcueG1sP2lwYWdlPTEwODYwMjA1JkRTRVE9MCZTRVE9MCZTUURFU0M9U0VDVElPTl9FTlRJUkUmc3Vic2lkPTU3
2016
1995
http://www.maitlandmercury.com.au/story/1865394/before-rhetoric-was-a-dirty-word/
http://www.nydailynews.com/entertainment/gossip/elizabeth-hurley-slams-bill-clinton-affair-rumors-article-1.1602983
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Taylor_(cricketer)
http://qz.com/656104/a-fleet-of-trucks-just-drove-themselves-across-europe/
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature17946.html
@futuristpaul
Trend Conversations
Customer Value
Proposition
Marketing
Media
Social Media
Email
Virtual Reality
Financial
Services
Bank
Banking
Crowdfunding
Fintech
Apple Pay
Employees
Staff
Outsourced
Freelance
Automated
Networked
Utility Services
Internet
Energy
Rubbish
Collection
Supply
Chain
Capital
Goods
Materials
Software
Buildings
Advisory
Services
Accountant
Consultant
Futurist
SME
Network
Training
Will Value Proposition
be the Same?
Yes
No
What Combination
of Capabilities Do
We Need to Deliver?
Utility Services
Buildings
Energy
Rubbish
Collection
Internet
Customer Value
Proposition
Marketing
Media
Social Media
Email
Virtual Reality
Messaging
Platforms
Messaging
Platforms
Customer Value
Proposition
"the business never loses context about who you are and your past purchases. It removes all the friction."
Facebook
Employees
Staff
Outsourced
Freelance
Automated
Networked
Customer Value
Proposition
Manual
Repetitive
Cognitive
Repetitive
Manual
Non-
Repetitive
Cognitive
Non-
Repetitive
"fewer than 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology. However, about 60 percent of occupations could have 30 percent or more of their constituent activities automated" - Mckinsey
You
Different Value Proposition?
Change in Capabilities?
????
I
n a world of Constant
Change How do You Determine
the Right Strategy?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/may/05/oil-firms-environment-energy-climate-change
Purpose
Landscape
Climate
Doctrine
Leadership
Observe
Orient
Decide
Act
Scan Wide
Think Deep
Take Home
Messages

What is Your Value Proposition?

What customer pain do you address?
What customer gain do you provide?
What customer Job do you do?
Mapping to Strategy
https://cloud.google.com/blog/big-data/2016/08/how-a-japanese-cucumber-farmer-is-using-deep-learning-and-tensorflow
http://www.airobotics.co.il/
https://sports.vice.com/en_us/article/how-kenyan-javelin-thrower-julius-yego-mastered-his-sport-by-watching-youtube-videos
3
Create a List of Trends
and Possible Disruptions
Put People in Functional
Groups
Map Against Importance
and Level of Uncertainty
Compare and Contrast
Different Perspectives
Driverless
Cars
Localised
Solar Markets
Future
of
Work
Drone
Mapping
BlockChain
Enabled
Democracy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-19/google-cuts-its-giant-electricity-bill-with-deepmind-powered-ai
3d model of Beddgelert, Wales
In practice
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2101667-blockchain-grid-to-let-neighbours-trade-solar-power-in-australia/
"fewer than 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology. However, about 60 percent of occupations could have 30 percent or more of their constituent activities automated"
-

Mckinsey
Manual
Repetitive
Cognitive
Repetitive
Manual
Non-
Repetitive
Cognitive
Non-
Repetitive
Talk to your neighbour
Which is most important for
future of councils?
What level of uncertainty do you have?
@swardley
Full transcript