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Why did the Annan Plan Fail?

75.38% of Greek Cypriots said NO to the plan.

64.91% of Turkish Cypriots said YES.

And the plan could not be realized.

It consist of 14 articles and 9 annexes. First annex is the constitution of the country.

What did it propose?

similarities with other consociational constitutions designed by international community. For example: Bosnia and Herzegovina

But these explanations may also be valid for other cases where power-sharing regimes were established in divided societies...

Possible Explanations for the Failure

VIOLENCE

There was no war, no violent action in the island since 1974. There was no motivation to finish a war.

Counter-example: Bosnia and Herzegovina.

What is the Annan Plan?

EUROPEAN UNION

Turkish accession to European Union was one of the key motives.

Cyprus was already going to be a member.

KEY EVENTS

  • Alvaro de Soto was appointed as Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on Cyprus by UN to conduct negotiations in 1 November 1999.
  • Proximity talks began in 3 December 1999 in New York.
  • From 1999 to 2004, five plans were drafted but parties could not reach an agreement. Nationalist Turkish Cypriot Leader Denktaş mainly. (Hannay Book)
  • The plan finalized by 31 March 2004.
  • Two referanda was held simultaneously in Turkish and Greek parts of the island on 24 April 2004.

Possible Reasons of Failure

As a Result,

Conventional Causes such as CONFLICTING NARRATIVES ?

Greek Cypriots focus on events following 1974 Turkish invasion such as displacement from Northern part of the island, Turkish military assmmetric use of force. Whereas Turkish Cypriots focus on the events prior to 1974. Ethnic violence against Turks.

Nationalist elites' positions against the plan.

Problems in negotiation table were not solved reciprocally before the

referendum was held.

(There was a deadline which before Cyprus accession to EU.)

What were the motives?

It proposed a comprehensive settlement for Cyprus Problem.

It proposed Consociationalism.

Power-Sharing between two bodies of UNITED CYPRUS REPUBLIC.

International community was more enthusiastic about the solution for Cyprus problem. They initiated and conducted negotiation process. The two parties looked reluctant.

Theories on secession vs. power-sharing.

Bi-cameral parliament: Senate (24:24) and The House of Deputies. (proportional)

Four Greek and two Turkish members for European Parliament.

  • In the post Cold War world, secession is thought as a danger that shakes stability and world order.
  • Secession also has other shortcomings such demonstration effect. (Moore)
  • Power Sharing has become international community's best remedy for disputes in deeply divided societies. (Ljiphart)

The Office of Head of State is vested in the Presidential Council. The presidency chair rotates between Greek and Turkish members every 20 month.

The Question of Legitimacy.

Independent Central Bank.

Supreme Court: Equal numbers of candidates from 2 constituent states and 3

non-Cypriot members.

Back to debates on Turkish intervention of 1974. Loss of legitamacy of de-facto Northern Cyprus separation.

Flag and Anthem

Strategic importance of the island. Two UK Bases.

Demilitarization of the island.

At that time, strong US support of EU membership of Turkey.

UN, as a guarantor in the country.

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