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Getting Comfortable with Uncertainty
1
Transcript
LIVING WITH UNCERTAINTY
WAYS FORWARD
INCOMPLETE INFORMATION
Nature of the Beast
- Constantly making judgements with incomplete info
- Doesn't matter if we are correct right now
- What matters is how often we are correct long-term
- This leads to numerous unforced errors
- Adjusting too soon - for the wrong reasons
- Making good assumptions about what is likely
- Making good assumptions about opponent's thought process
- Opponents' assumptions
- Mirroring in Poker
- The tension of not knowing
- Parallels with Life
REACTIONS TO UNCERTAINTY
Unforced Errors
- The fact of uncertainty is not a problem
- Our response to uncertainty is the problem
- Examples:
- Curiosity calls ("I knew he had it!")
- Spite calls (which generally just spite ourselves more than anyone)
- Self-sabotage in Poker
- Desire for "justice", feeling that we are due
- Levelling ourselves
- Over-focusing on one part of a villain's range
- Clicking too fast
- "Over it" clicking
Learning to Trust Our Instincts
- Instincts are vital in Poker
- Yet they can lead us astray
- I believe we can learn to improve them
- Partly a matter of experience
- Partly a matter of self-awareness
- The qualitative difference between insight and delusion
- Deep focus zone
- Trusting ourselves to pick up information
- Avoiding wishful thinking
- How does it really feel?
BREAKING CONVENTIONS
Standard Line Bro?
- What's standard one year...
- Differences of intention / purpose behind the same bet
- Recent developments:
- Lead bets
- Future game & capture factor
- GTO vs. Exploitative
BRINGING IT HOME
Intuition & Analysis
- We must learn to improve and integrate both
- Each frames the other
- Having the analytic precision, the mathematics behind us
- Detailed range analysis
- Real-time processing, semi-conscious and unconscious / automated processes
- Weighting the factors instinctively
- Creative thinking
- Capacity to perform accurately under pressure
- The benefits of being "slightly unfocused"
- Where is my mind?
luke@deepestwell.com
Free Wellness Sessions
- lukehaward on Skype
- 20 Minute Free Session
- Chance to Discuss Coaching Plan
- Equanimity Training
- Zero Tilt Is Attainable!
- Email me for The Deepest Well Quick Start Guide!
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