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Will I fit in?
How party fit is driving polarization
WT...
Thomsen argues there is no empirical evidence to suggest gerrymandering, primary election systems, and voters are driving polarization.
"Even if voters had picked the most moderate candidate in every U.S. House election between 1980 and 2014, 80 percent of the polarization between Democratic and Republican members would have occurred anyway" (Sides 2019, np).
it's always about fit
Party fit and party reputation
WHAt then?
What is the intersection of these?
How do they affect decision a candidate's to run?
Hypothesis
"ideological conformity with the party’s reputation influences potential candidates’ ability to achieve their electoral and policy goals...
and those with preferences that conform to the party’s reputation are more likely to run for political office than those with preferences that differ from this reputation" (Thomsen 2014, 7).
Results
"A one-unit increase in Republican liberalism results in a four percentage point decline in their perceived chance of winning the primary" (Thomsen 2014, 14).
"a standard deviation increase in party recruitment and support from outside groups leads to a six percentage point rise in state legislators’ expected chance of winning" (Thomsen 2014, 14).
Why did this not hold up for Democrats?
What About those who do Run?
Running
"probability that a conservative state legislator like Paul Ryan runs for Congress is more than nine times greater than that of a moderate state legislator like Olympia Snowe" (Thomsen 2014, 21).
Does the same pattern apply to Democrats?
"If the only candidates who are willing to run for office are as extreme as the rascals in office, this has serious consequences for the representation of those in the ideological middle, which includes the majority of the American people" (Thomsen 2014, 25).
Now what?
But, wait...once they run, do their issue positions REALLY matter to voters?
Do (anyone's) issue positions really matter?Tausanovitch and Warshaw (2018)
Spatial/Proximity
Directional/Party Loyalty
- Voters chose candidates whose issue positions are spatially the closest to them
- More extreme voters support party’s candidates regardless of positions candidates take
So, what does this look like?
Spatial/Proximity
Directional/Party Loyalty
- liberals = more liberal legislators
- conservatives =more conservative legislators
- moderates = more moderate legislators
- voters should always vote for the party on their side of the "neutral point"
"98% of liberal Democratic voters support Democratic incumbents, and upwards of 90% oppose Republican incumbents, virtually regardless of the legislators’ positions" (232).
LEANERS!
"It may be the case that voters think or act spatially with reference to
parties, but not candidates" (234)
"97% of Republicans support Republican incumbents, and over 90% oppose Democratic incumbents, virtually regardless of
the legislators’ positions" (234).
Let's get to the causation, though.
Spatial/Proximity
Directional/Party Loyalty
- distance between voter preferences and candidates' positions is weakly connected to citizens’ voting
- most candidates only gain a % or two in from ideological moderation
- citizens vote on the basis of spatial proximity to parties
- collective accountability for ideological extremity by parties in Congress