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forecasting
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Transcript
1
Time for Change
"despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Hillary Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls" (Abramowitz 2016, 660).
2
Campbell's Four Models
#1
Trial Heat and Economy
#2
Convention Bump and Economy
51.11%
#3
Seats-in-trouble
+6
+2
Polls and LEI
3
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Leading Economic Indicators
Average weekly hours, manufacturing
Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
ISM® Index of New Orders
Manufacturers' new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
Building permits, new private housing units
Stock prices, 500 common stocks
Leading Credit Index™
Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
Average consumer expectations for business conditions
"The possibility of greater campaign effects than we typically observe should constrain our confidence in the predictions presented here" (Erikson and Wlezien 2016, 672).
4
National Conditions and Trial Heat model
5
Political Economy Model
""Because our forecast is 51.0, if it has an error greater than -1.0, we would forecast a victory for the wrong party. This translates into a 41% chance that this forecast would be wrong" (Lewis-Beck and Tien 2016, 661)."
6
Primary Model
?
How did PSC get it right...and wrong?
Forecasting: Friend, or Foe?
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