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POPULATION

AND

HEALTH

Assoc.Prof.Dr Umut ALTUNÇ

CIU Medical Faculty

16th December 2019

World Population

where are we heading to?

Analysis

World Population

  • 1900y 1,6 Bn
  • 2000y 6,1 Bn
  • 2010y 6,8 Bn
  • 2050y 9,3 Bn ???

world Population

Overpopulation

  • The limit that exceeds envorinmental resources per person
  • Rate of consuming per person
  • Rate of envorinmental hazards
  • Rate of personal wastes
  • Rate of contagious diseases

Reasons for overpopulation

Reasons

  • Higher birth rate
  • Longer lifespan
  • Lower death rates
  • Lower infant mortality rates
  • Fertility treatments
  • Migration to big cities

Developed/Undeveloped Countries' Population

  • Yearly population rise 1.2 %
  • Daily 200K person
  • Half of the population rise in 6 Countries
  • 21% India
  • 12% China
  • 5% Pakistan

numbers

Developed Countries

Developed countries

  • 1.2 Bn people in developed countries
  • By 2050 39 developed countries will have less population
  • Russia by 30%
  • Italy and Hungary by 25%
  • Germany and Japan by 15%

Undeveloped Countries

  • 4.9 Bn people in undeveloped countries
  • 8.2 Bn by 2050
  • Lifespan 63 yrs (75 in developed) by 2000
  • Lifespan 75 yrs (82 in developed) by 2050

Developing countries

Resources

Resources

  • Earth, soil
  • Water
  • Fossil fuels and Energy
  • Poverty/Unemployment
  • Food
  • Shelters, houses
  • Agriculture
  • Medical facilities
  • Education
  • Waste removal
  • Climate conditions

Climate change

  • The largest single threat to the ecology and biodiversity of the planet in the decades to come will be global climate disruption due to the buildup of human-generated greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. People around the world are beginning to address the problem by reducing their carbon footprint through less consumption and better technology. But unsustainable human population growth can overwhelm those efforts, leading us to conclude that we not only need smaller footprints, but fewer feet.

  • Globally, recent research indicates that assumptions regarding declining fertility rates used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to develop future emissions scenarios may be overly optimistic. While fertility rates have generally declined over the past few decades, progress has slowed in recent years, especially in developing nations, largely due to cutbacks in family planning assistance and political interference from the United States. And even if fertility rates are reduced to below replacement levels, population levels will continue to climb steeply for some time as people live longer and billions of young people mature and proceed through their reproductive years. Per-capita greenhouse gas emissions may drop, but the population bulge will continue to contribute to a dangerous increase in greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Water

  • 1/3 of the population lives in areas with insufficient water supplies

  • 18% of the population lacks access to healthy drinking water facilities

  • Chinese undergground water levels are getting 1.6 meters lower annually

Food & Agriculture

  • The population would grow geometrically—1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32—and that food production would increase only arithmetically—1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. So food production would not keep up with our expanding appetites. You might imagine Malthus' scenario on geometric population growth as being like compound interest: A couple have two children and those children each produce two children. Those four children produce two children each tomake eight, and those eight children each have their own two kids, leaving 16 kids in that generation. But worldwide, the current median fertility rate is about 2.5, (or five children between two couples) so, like compound interest, the population numbers can rise even faster.

  • One of our biggest impacts is agriculture. Whether we can grow enough food sustainably for an expanding world population also presents an urgent challenge, and this becomes only more so in light of these new population projections. Where will food for an additional 2 to 3 billion people come from when we are already barely keeping up with 7 billion

Poverty

  • 1.2 Bn people in the world earns with less than 1 USD per day

  • Half of the world's population survives with less than 2 USD a day

  • 850 M people cant afford daily minimum calory consumption

Energy: Petrol & Gas

  • When the population continues to grow at this pace, we’ll need 50 percent more energy to sustain humanity by 2050

  • Developing nations like India and some African countries tend to consume much less energy but add to the population crisis. India, for example, is almost the exact opposite of the United States on an energy consumption scale, using only 5 percent of the world's energy. But with nearly 1.2 billion people, it's responsible for almost 17 percent of the Earth’s population.

  • 80% of todays enery consumption is generated by Fossile sources (Petrol, Coal, Natural Gas)

  • The share of low-carbon sources (wind energy, hydropower, biomass energy, nuclear energy, and other alternative energy) in the primary energy mix continues to increase after 2010, ultimately reaching a share of 24 percent in 2050

  • Globally, we currently consume the equivalent of over 11 billion tonnes of oil from fossil fuels every year. Crude oil reserves are vanishing at a rate of more than 4 billion tonnes a year – so if we carry on as we are, our known oil deposits could run out in just over 53 years.

Medical Care

  • As a result of aging of the population, the increase in the number of physicians’ services would amount to 8 to 11 per cent more than the percentage increase in the population between 1935 and 1980.

  • In this period, the factor of aging alone would account for an increase in hospital days of care amounting to 12 per cent.

  • Thus, the increase in the volume of physicians’ services and hospital days of care resulting from the increment of older patients indirectly would alter the case load of physicians and hospitals, and additional medical personnel and hospital facilities might be required to maintain medical care at present standards.

  • Rising population will produce a higher financial and physical source for public disease prevention ailments such as vaccinations, medicines and healthcare proffessional attentions.

Wastes

Waste is an inevitable by-product of human

civilisation. As global population size has grown

and many people have moved to urban areas,

consumption and waste accumulation have

increased rapidly. With these developments, the

challenge of waste disposal has grown.

Landfills were traditionally popular for waste

disposal, but their negative side-effects, and the

realisation that the Earth is limited in space and

supply, caused a move towards other methods.

Both incineration and recycling have gained

popularity, but while the latter is a sustainable

waste disposal method, it cannot limit waste

generation indefinitely. It can only reduce

avoidable waste levels, but a large proportion of

generated waste is still unavoidable.

Sustainability policies and technology will allow us

to minimise avoidable waste levels and to reduce

the effects of the pollution that has already been

created.

Population stabilisation, however, is the

only change that can reduce waste production to

a level that is manageable for both the

environment and humanity.

Diseases arising with Population

An increase in antimicrobial resistance proves to be an unexpected problem for diseases such as:

• Tuberculosis

• Malaria

• Cholera

• Dengue fever

the decrease in the quality of air has resulted in the majority of people suffering from respiratory problems such as:

• Asthma,

• Lung cancer

• Chest pain

• Congestion

• Throat inflammation

• Cardiovascular disease

• Respiratory diseases

Lead poisoning (Car exhausts) Congenital malformations and neurological diseases

Diseases arising with Population

Overpopulation results in polluted water supplies. People die each year because of contaminated water-related disease. The viruses spread faster in a denser population which enables deadly mutations causing water-borne pandemics such as:

  • Typhoid fever
  • Cholera
  • Enteroviral gastroenteritis
  • Hepatitis A
  • Infectious diseases

  • Air Pollution and Environmental Diseases

  • Global warming and Ozone depletion borne diseases

  • Nutrition related diseases

  • Social-Economical and Political

Malnutrition due to decreasing sources

  • Vitamin and mineral deficiencies
  • Weakened immune system

Obesity due to fast-food and fat-carbs diet

  • Cardiovascular diseases
  • Cancer

The ozone layer of the atmosphere no longer protects us from the harmful ultraviolet (UV) rays of the sun causing skin problems such as skin cancers and premature ageing of the skin. UV rays also result in a host of eye-related problems such as cataract and blindness. Most of all, it weakens the human immune system.

Ageing World

Ageing

Year 2000

  • 60+ aged people counted 606M
  • 80+ aged people counted 69M

Year 2050

  • 60+ aged people counted 2Bn
  • 80+ aged people counted 379M

3 Generation of Diseases

Three Generation

Of Diseases

At low life expectancies, poverty-linked causes of death due to common childhood infections, malnutrition, and risks associated with childbearing predominate among women and children. As life expectancy is extended, affluence-related cardiovascular, oncotic, and degenerative diseases begin to predominate among adults and the elderly.

the epidemiologic pattern of the causes of death changes as life expectancy improves

Improving health conditions worldwide

Improving health policies

Interventions

Three common interventions for improving social determinant outcomes as identified by the WHO are education, social security and urban development. However, evaluation of interventions has been difficult due to the nature of the interventions, their impact and the fact that the interventions strongly affect children's health outcomes.

Education: Many scientific studies have been conducted and strongly suggests that increased quantity and quality of education leads to benefits to both the individual and society (e.g. improved labor productivity). Health and economic outcome improvements can be seen in health measures such as blood pressure, crime, and market participation trends.Examples of interventions include decreasing size of classes and providing additional resources to low-income school districts.

Social Protection: Interventions such as “health-related cash transfers”, maternal education, and nutrition-based social protections have been shown to have a positive impact on health outcomes.

Urban Development: Urban development interventions include a wide variety of potential targets such as housing, transportation, and infrastructure improvements. In addition, there is a fair amount of evidence to prove that external urban development interventions such as transportation and affordable housing options (including public housing) can make large contributions to both social determinants of health, as well as the local economy.

"Protecting the health of women by reducing high-risk pregnancies"

"Protecting the health of children by allowing sufficient time between pregnancies"

"Fighting HIV/AIDS through providing information, counseling, and access to male and female condoms"

"Reducing abortions"

"Supporting women's rights and opportunities for education, employment, and full participation in society"

"Protecting the environment by stabilizing population growth"

Universal access to affordable, high-quality reproductive and child health services—contraception, control of sexually transmitted diseases including HIV/AIDS, maternal and child health—offers the most effective and humane approach to attaining good health, enabling couples to achieve smaller desired family sizes and accelerating the world's demographic and health transitions to stability and quality.

Controlling overpopulation

Illustrations

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