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Random or Romney?
Transcript
Random or Romney?
Wednesday, September 28, 2016
Vol XCIII, No. 311
$1.25
Primary Fundamentals
The Four Driving Forces
Discovery, Scrutiny, Decline
- party endorsements
- pre-primary polls
- money
- attention from media
Weak Field
After DSD levels, the steady candidates break through
and rise to the top.
It's not weakness, it's staying power
and electability.
Volatile polls and lack of enthusiasm
Because Romney was relatively well-known, he never received the spikes in coverage...he never 'surged...'
This made him appear to be a weak candidate...But this also concealed the underlying structure of the race, which tilted in his favor (Sides and Vavreck 2013, 58)
Anybody but Romney = Trump '16
What can The Gamble tell us?
IDEOLOGICAL MODERATION
"He was ahead of his rivals, and sometimes far ahead, on the most important metrics of the horse race" (Sides and Vavreck 2013, 63).
"We should not confuse moderation in the general ideological sense with moderation on actual issues" (Ahler and Brookman 2015, np).
"perceived as moderately conservative - certainly well within the party's 'programmatic consensus'" (Sides and Vavreck 2013, 63).
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