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THE END - THANK YOU !

The Future of Israeli Military Power

The Future of War

Prof Martin Van Creveld

A decade of fighting - What the authors missed

State of the IDF

1998 - Knives, Tanks, and Missiles : Israel's Security Revolution

2000-2005 - 2nd Intifada

9/11/2001 - September 11th

2003-____ - Iraq War

2006 - 2nd Lebanon War

2008 - Gaza War/Operation Cast Lead

2003-2011 - Iran nuclear threat

2011 - Arab Spring

September 2011 - Possible declaration of Palestinian

Statehood.

  • A career army ? Not yet
  • in 2004 INSS estimate there were

Ground troops - 140.000 active + 480.000 reserves

Air Force - 37.500 active + 75.000 reserves

Navy - 9.500 active + 10.000 reserves

  • Composition of the main fighting force

4.000 Tanks

11.000 Armored vehicles

Emphasis on ground warfare

  • Increasing Budget -

2009 - 48.6 Billion Shekels

2010 - 53.2 Billion Shekels (6.3% of GDP)

  • Doctrine

Defense of Israel, its territory and its population

against foreign armies.

2 states/modes : Milchama, Conenout le Milchama

Counter-terrorism/bitachon shotef side responsibility

Ground Forces vs Air Force

Interstate wars or counter-terrorism ?

The threats to Israel

  • Air Force

Recon, intelligence gathering

Accurate Strike capability deep in enemy territory

Missile warfare essential

Better used for destroying military infrastructure than fighting armies

limited number of planes

  • Ground Forces

Border protection

Defense against invastion, deals with troops

Can go inside cities/villages/houses

Can hit targets concealed from or innaccessible by air

In case of war, need to take the fight to the enemy and occupy territory

Terrorism -

Hamas, Islamic Jihad, Al Qaeda etc. launching rockets

and mortars from the Gaza Strip and trying to infiltrate

Israel from Gaza or Egypt.

Terror attacks and hate crimes in West Bank

and East Jerusalem

Hizballah in Southern Lebanon, more armed than the Lebanese

military

Interstate wars -

Iran

Syria

Lebanon

Jordan

Arab Spring

Palestine ? Arab League ?

Israel - US Defense Relations

The Future of the IDF

Very strong Defense relations

Military Aid - Cuts from economic aid in favor of

increased military aid.

Relations were tightened by WTC attack

Iraq War

Afghanistan War

Israel is strongest regional ally

Political Climate since 2008 makes it hard for

Israel to seek Middle East Defense allies.

Loss (temporary? Permanent?) of Turkey

unclear situation with Egypt

Gaza War, Settlements issue, refugees issue

lead to a strengthening anti-Israel political

and social sentiment..

Ground Forces maintained

Increased Air Force budget

More technology - hand held 3D devices

drones/UAV, Unmanned armed land vehicles

and border turrets, new intelligence gathering devices

Preparedness for both counter-terror operations and

conventional wars.

Maintained regular conscription

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