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Trends and Forces 1.20.17

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Emily Crow

on 10 May 2017

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Transcript of Trends and Forces 1.20.17

TRENDS AND FORCES: A Foundation for Our Future
OVERVIEW
This presentation highlights the trends and forces shaping the future of Portsmouth.

It concludes with a summary of key findings from this assessment, and the first round of public input gathered in November & December 2016.

Our Society
Our diversity, history, and economy have shaped our city, our unique and close knit communities, our cultural heritage, and the community services make Portsmouth a great place to live.
The Trends & Forces Categories
These categories allow us to track the trends and forces that influence the foundation of Portsmouth's future.
Our Mobility
The transportation infrastructure and transit systems are the framework of our city; the connectedness, and mobility our transportation options afford us are important to our quality of life.
Our Places
The architecture, urban form, and natural environment combine to shape the place we love. Our built and natural landscapes are part of our identity and community.
Our Society
People and Culture
Our Places
The Built and Natural Environments
Our Mobility
Transportation & Mobility
Our Infrastructure
The Networks & Infrastructure
Our Networks
Our networks and systems keep our city running by delivering utilities to our homes and businesses, and moving and treating waste and stormwater. Our networks need to be functional and well maintained systems that are resilient and adaptable with our changing needs.
Diversity
The people of Portsmouth are diverse in a variety of ways, from age, and family structure, to ethnicity and racial composition.

Our diverse population has an influence on our housing needs, our workforce, our economy, and embodies our cultural heritage.
Population Growth
Portsmouth population peaked in 1960 at 115,000 people

Current Population is approximately 97,000

2040 Population is projected to be 102,800
5,300 new people expected by 2040
Age Composition
Student population (under 19) remains steady at around 25,000

Decline in population from age 34-45

Increasing older adult (65+)population-from 9%today to 15% by 2040
Demographic
Influence on Housing Demand
Ethnic and Racial Diversity
Household Composition and Changes
Housing Affordability
Household Income
Demographic Influence on Schools
A level student population over the next 24 years will provide for programing shifts and improvements to capital facilities without demanding significant capacity increases.
Demographic Influence on Demand for Health & Community Services
Increasing older adult populations will demand greater access to health services as they age in place.
Stable student population will continue demanding early life services and education
Trends indicate lower household incomes for families with children-this may place increasing demand on programs through schools, libraries, health department, and non-governmental agencies.
Growing Population Sectors Demand for Entertainment and Retail
Our History
African-American History
Maritime History
Settlement and
Development History
Our Economy
Our Workforce
Our Industries
Our Economic Development
Focus
Our Economic Objectives
Increase the city's tax base to generate revenue
Increase employment
Waterfront , Downtown and Uptown
Industrial Development and Infill (Shipping & Manufacturing related)
Commercial Redevelopment & Infill
Other Emerging Opportunities
Neighborhood Scale Economies &
Local community development
strategies, structures

Increased Regional Collaboration

Trans Atlantic Fiber Optics

Increase supply of urban housing options


Our Community Services
The Programs and Services that support our people
Health & Safety Services
At Risk Populations
Epidemic Health Trends
Current Programs
Partnership Organizations
Education, Information and
Cultural Services
Recreation & Leisure
Our Natural Environment
Parks & Open Spaces
Tree Cover
Our Relationship with Water
Watershed Quality Restoration
Impacts of Climate Change
Sea Level Rise
Ongoing Programs
Our Built
Environment
Our Neighborhoods
Our Distinctive Housing & Residential Architecture
Our Pattern of Development
Existing Land Use
Our Special Places
Ports
Waterfront
Downtown
Public Spaces

Public & Architectural Landmarks
Areas of Opportunity for Change
Obsolete Non-residential / Commercial & Industrial Development

Public Spaces for change

Key Sites for investment and development
The Many Ways to Move in Portsmouth:
Our Local Networks
Mobility is about moving by car, transit, foot and bike.
The comprehensive plan needs to express a mobility philosophy that:
Enhances transit
Promotes walking and biking in the city
Advances traffic calming (i.e. establish a way to respond to citizen concerns)
Identifies way to communicate transportation information (e.g., short- and long-term road closures)
Transit Options
Our Pedestrian and Bike Infrastructure
The Commute
Portsmouth is a significant employment center for the region.

Approximately 34% of Portsmouth commuters live and work in the city of Portsmouth
18,539 people live and work in Portsmouth
35,366 total in-commuters
Most from Chesapeake (10,987), Virginia Beach (7,955), and Norfolk (5,794)
24,429 total out-commuters
Most going to Norfolk (7,837), Chesapeake (6,884) and Virginia Beach (3,549)
10,937 net in-commuters


Source: 2009-2013 Hampton Roads Commuting Patterns Table

Commute Modes
The majority of Portsmouth commuters drive alone. Putting a heavy burden on our roads, bridges, and tunnels.

Increasing accessibility and choices for commuters to take reliable transit, or bike or walk to work could reduce reliance on roads, and reduce commute times.

Travel Times and Congestion
I-264 and Western Freeway in Portsmouth have some of the highest travel time indexes in the Hampton Roads area during the morning rush.
A trip that would normally take 10 minutes can take 45-57 minutes at this time of day.

In the morning rush, Portsmouth has the most congested roads in the region, primarily from backups to the Midtown* and Downtown Tunnels

Congestion's Impact on Freight and Business
Portsmouth is a center of shipping and freight movement.

The city is also limited in the routes in and out of the City for vehicular freight movement. The trucks share the roads with commuter traffic.

In 2010, truck freight traffic was delayed 205 hours a week at the Downtown Tunnel, and 115 hours a week at the Midtown Tunnel.

According to a study prepared by the Regional Transportation Organization in 2013, these delays for the Downtown Tunnel alone are estimated to cost over $5-million annually.
At times, even moving freight by ship, or train can have impacts on traffic in Portsmouth, as trains block traffic and bridges are raised and lowered to allow ships to pass.
Other Mobility Concerns
Sea Level Rise & Recurrent Flooding
Extreme flooding events are increasingly disrupting transportation networks, as more frequent storm surges and higher tides combined with heavy rain have become more common.

The region is the second most vulnerable area in the U.S. to sea level rise, after New Orleans.


A 2ft sea level rise plus a 50-year storm surge could submerge up to 31% of the City's roads.

Many gates to our military installations are already affected during flooding including: The Craney Island Fuel Terminal, Naval Medical Center Portsmouth, and the Norfolk Naval Shipyard.

As sea levels rise, wave heights resulting from storm surges could overtop some of the portal walls of the tunnels and create flooding situations.
-This happened in the Midtown Tunnel during Hurricane Isabel.


Information, Fiber Optics, and Communications
Power
Potable Water
Sanitary Sewer
Stormwater and Flood Mitigation
CONCLUSIONS
Planning for Portsmouth's future is complex and must address numerous factors. The key findings that emerge from this are. . .
Portsmouth has a history of racial diversity with African American's making up a slightly greater portion of the population since 1990
6% Other
Portsmouth Public Schools: Churchland High School
African Americans in Portsmouth built a strong, insulated community because they were cognizant of the need to look inward. Whether assisting the pre-Civil War escapes through the Underground Railroad, forming banks, publishing a newspaper, or providing recreational facilities, Portsmouth's African Americans created one of the most stable middle-class black communities in America.

From
Portsmouth, Virginia (Black America Series)
-Cassandra Newby-Alexander Ph.D
A few examples of this legacy...
Portsmouth Colored Community Library Museum
African American Historical Society of Portsmouth
Buffalo Riders of Hampton Roads
Emanuel A.M.E. Church
NAACP Portsmouth
"Portsmouth’s future is found in the footsteps of the richest traditions of America, from the earliest days of Colonial Virginia through the victories of equality, dignity, and diversity. As guardian of the collective heritage of many people, we are a united city focused on our Vision Principles. The Portsmouth family preserves the proudest traditions of the past as the compass of our future."


-Portsmouth City Council Vision Principles for the Year 2030
"Several miles of its shoreline form part of the Port of Hampton Roads, the
world’s largest natural harbor
and one of the
busiest ports
in the United State.

Given the nature of the City, maritime operations comprise a large percentage of Portsmouth’s
employment base
"
From City of Portsmouth, Virginia Shoreline Inventory Report Methods and Guidelines
3 Largest Employers:
Norfolk Naval Shipyard 9,000
Naval Medical Center 7,000
City Government 1,926
Partnerships and Community Input & Participation have been crucial in many services provided.
Health and Safety Services have partnered to improve assistance to at risk populations

Libraries, Schools, Parks, Recreation & Leisure are also partners in programs, education, and information access
Substantial Homeless Population
lack of homeless shelter
Poverty
18% Portsmouth residents in 2011, vs. 12% for Virginia.
Racial Disparities
Significantly higher percentage of African-Americans receive food stamps and Medicaid than do white people in Portsmouth.
Significant Food Deserts in many neighborhoods

5 Leading Causes of Death 2012:
Heart Disease
Cancer
Higher rates of many cancers than surrounding area
Stroke
Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease (COPD & Asthma)
Diabetes
Four Health Priorities of Healthy Portsmouth:
Physical Activity
Healthy Eating
Tobacco Use
Mental Health Literacy
Obesity
Healthy Food Access
Physical Activity Access & Awareness
Diabetes
Smoking - 23% 2008-2010
HIV/AIDS - highest in region. Increased 36% 2001-2012.
Healthy Portsmouth • Public Library • Department of Parks, Recreation, and Leisure Services • Department of Planning • Virginia Cooperative Extension • Health Department • Redevelopment and Housing Authority • City of Portsmouth • Consortium for Infant and Child Health • American Cancer Society • American Heart Association • Department of Behavioral Healthcare Services
Children's Museum of Virginia: fills educational gaps by offering K-5 grade SOL (Virginia Standards of Learning) Programs on mathematics, science and history/social science
Planetarium Shows
Smart Art
Performances
Portsmouth Museums • Portsmouth Public Schools
Master Plan 2012: Desire to develop parks that further reflect specific neighborhood characters and needs; address needs of growing population segments (i.e., "active living" for older adults)
Therapeutic Recreation Development
6 TO SIX Before and After School Program
“Our Hours” After School Recreation Program
Virginia Cooperative Extension Program 4-H Youth Development
Senior Station
47 mi²
Land: 34 mi², Water: 13 mi²

The natural geography of Portsmouth although significantly shaped by man is integral to our identity, natural processes, economy, quality of life, and health.
~350 acres
3.6 acres per 1,000 residents
less than national standard of 10 acres per 1,000 residents
From The Virginian-Pilot - Ricky Pryor trims branches, taken by Thomas Slusser
Portsmouth Tree Canopy Ordinance

The city has not focused on tree cover to date, this may be an opportunity.
Example:
Paradise Creek & Elizabeth River Project
"Unlike any park anywhere, Paradise Creek Nature Park is a
national model for urban river restoration
, showing how industry, nature, and art can co-exist in harmony.
11 acres restored wetlands
40 acre waterfront park
City of Portsmouth • Elizabeth River Project • Port of Virginia
"...a very large part of Portsmouth is
exposed to flooding and just about
every sector will be impacted."
-Portsmouth Climate Resilience Dec. 2016

Elizabeth River Project
Natural habitat helps wildlife, human health, and can cultivate natural flood buffers.
However, almost 90% of the Elizabeth River Watershed is already developed, and has many pollutants.
Offers sustainable development guidance.

Chesapeake Bay Program & Watershed Management Areas

Developing a Climate Resilience Plan
Currently have a Portsmouth Hazard Mitigation Plan
Investigating options for resiliency actions on a regional level



From Elizabeth River Project
Median Household Income: $45,676
2016 Portsmouth has an overall housing affordability index of 24.4% which is among the highest in the state but still in the average to excellent range for affordability.

Portsmouth
Median Home Value: $169,800 (ACS 2015)

Almost 32% of Households with a mortgage pay more than 35% of their annual income for housing

47% of renting households pay more than 35% of their annual income for housing
ACS 2011-2015 5 year estimate
ACS 2011-2015 5 year estimate
Demographic Study; ACS 2011-2015 5 year estimate
Educational Attainment
Declining demand for the city's single-family housing stock
Increasing demand for smaller, urban rentals
Increasing demand for housing appropriate for non-traditional families
Adaptation to climate change impacts, particularly for vulnerable populations / areas, is something that we need to plan for to be more resilient as changes occur. From building resilient housing to developing collaborative strategies for when disasters occur, we can be prepared.
As sea levels rise, more of the city will be subject to flooding limiting access and functionality.


Efforts to make changes to our natural systems to help
manage these waters can help us become more resilient.

"If Portsmouth wants to see more economic activity, infill development, and population growth, it should focus on the demographic groups it is already attracting and the new housing options that are undersupplied in the city, without losing large amounts of the affordable housing that its current residents depend on." - Portsmouth Demographic Study 2015
"Hispanic residents and those identifying as multiracial or 'other' make up a small but growing portion of the population." -Portsmouth Demographic Study 2015
"Incomes have noticeably fallen in the Cavalier Manor neighborhood, especially closer to Victory Blvd." "Household income in Portsmouth has remained among the lowest in the metro area since 1990, with only Norfolk having a lower median household income."

- Portsmouth Demographic Study 2015
Access to health information, services
Free group fitness programs (PRLS)
Kids Meals Program: provides summer and mobile meals (Public Schools, PRLS)
Fire Prevention Month - education
Fire Community Risk Reductions
Monthly coffee with police
Coloring with police
HOT-Homeless Outreach Team
Fire Rescue & Emergency Services • Police Department • Department of Social Services • Department of Behavioral Health
Its location as an East Coast deepwater port has been the common denominator of the City's development throughout its centuries of growth.

First explored by Capt. John Smith, by the early 1600s it flourished into a shipbuilding location and port.

In 1752 it was established as a town by Col. William Crawford out of his plantation. After several battles and the inception of the United States, it's rich naval history continued to flourish.

It also served as part of the Underground Railroad. Over several years it annexed beyond Olde Towne into what we know today.
"Olde Towne boasts the largest collection of period homes between Charleston, South Carolina and Alexandria, Virginia."
-Olde Towne Business Association
Water has always been integral to Portsmouth - from its founding as an excellent port site within the Chesapeake Bay to today's use of water for enjoyment, the economy, naval use, habitat, and travel.

It's 90 miles of shoreline and access to the waterways offer these unique opportunities.

This also poses challenges to navigate and manage an urban place so intricately tied to water.
Cavalier Manor
This suburb began in 1950s by Developer George T. McLean, planned for African-American home ownership - this was particularly important during deed restrictions against African-Americans found in some other neighborhoods.
These were the nation's first government-funded and government-planned neighborhoods, with segregated shipyard worker housing for African-American and white naval workers, respectively. Both neighborhood's detailed plans reflected New Town design.
Truxtun & Cradock
Olde Towne
Churchland
Churchland is a more recently developed part of Portsmouth with Subdivisions from the 1960s-1990s. The development pattern in this area takes advantage of the significant waterfront

This was the city's suburban edge which is now adjacent to Suffolk's residential commercial growth.
Truxtun and Cradock images from MIT.
Col. William Crawford laid a grid-based plan for Portsmouth's first neighborhood, Olde Towne, with the thoroughfare High Street as the main road leading from the port. The four corners of High Street and Court Street were dedicated by Col. Crawford for a market, church, courthouse, and jail.
Portsmouth began as a thoughtfully-planned English port town with later annexation and development reflecting interwoven forces and events in American history.

The urban fabric of Portsmouth tells the story of its people, broader social trends, and major historical events.
"Important Federal, Greek Revival, Italianate, and Queen Anne style residential buildings; Classical Revival, Romanesque Revival, and Streamline Modern commercial buildings populate the district and create a visual museum of style."

- City of Portsmouth, 2008.
Cradock: mostly single & two-family houses;15-20 feet wide row / terrace houses. Elements of English Cottage, Bungalow, Dutch Colonial and Colonial Revival with repeating though varied design elements and layout.
Truxton: The Jerkinhead, or clipped gable is a signature of thehomes in Truxton.
High Street Landing
Elizabeth River
Olde Towne farmers market
Portsmouth Pavilion, Downtown
Olde Towne waterfront
Frensel Lens
Willett Hall
Portsmouth Courthouse
Courthouse photo by Max Greenhood
Broadband wired internet services
Available throughout city, to homes, businesses.
Providers:
Cox Cable
Verizon (DSL)
Fios by Verizon (Fiber)
Charter Spectrum (Cable)
MegaPath (DSL)
Global Capacity (DSL)
All the above are commercial service providers.
City Fiber & Communications Networks
Under development for upcoming fiscal year.
Will connect all City facilities - includes schools, libraries.
Wi-fi hotspots will connect first responders, improve communications across secure network.
All four libraries have free internet access - this could make wi-fi even more accessible to public.
MAREA Cable: Trans Atlantic Fiber Optics
Microsoft, Facebook, & Telefonica announced that Virginia Beach will be the western point for a state-of-the-art subsea cable connecting to Bilbad, Spain.
Highest-capacity cable ever to cross Atlantic.
Mid-Atlantic Broadband Communities Corporation will partner with City of Virginia Beach to build local fiber network to support landing station.
Major economic development draw for High-Tech business to the Hampton Roads Region.
Electric Power
Provided by Dominion, one of nation's largest electric power & natural gas companies - serves 5M+ customers.
Not a city-controlled utility.
Dominion is responsible for maintenance of utility infrastructure, delivery of services, and seeks to expand user base. Thus, may offer significant economic development incentives to attract larger users to service areas.
Wheelabrator Portsmouth
Provides clean, renewable electricity for local utility.
Processes up to 2,370 tons of post-recycled waste per day.
Partnered with Elizabeth River Project in both the River Star Program, and in Paradise Creek Nature Park.
Portsmouth Department of Public Utilities / Works
Operates the city-owned water system.
Serves approx. 140,000 persons in Portsmouth, Chesapeake.
Self-supporting of their infrastructure via collection of fees.

2005 Comprehensive Plan:
noted age of water / sewer pipes - more than 63% operating beyond useful life.

From this, the Department of Public Utilities / Works has commissioned sewer basin studies to
assess conditions & establish rehabilitation plans
.

Most significant need for utility:
Infrastructure upgrades, replacement.
Stormwater Management Division
of Public Utilities / Works: responsible for stormwater drainage system.
Ultimately discharges into Chesapeake Bay.

Most significant challenge for City:
age, and in many cases, elevation & type of infrastructure.

Based on a 2007 drainage assessment,
improvements continue to be made
through the annual Capital Improvement Plan. Improvements made regarding maintenance and corrections to inadequate design, as well as addressing areas with reoccurring flood problems.
Flooding & Outflows - recently more frequent & severe due to:
frequency of heavy rain events,
increased height of storm surges, and
higher tides.
--> anticipated to worsen as sea levels rise, and weather patterns produce stronger and more frequent storms.
Flood Risk Resource, provided by the City:

http://data.portsmouthva.gov/buildingofficial/Flood_Insurance_Rate_Maps.aspx
Portsmouth's population has declined and is anticipated to remain relatively flat, while the region as a whole has experienced significant growth.
26%
24%
65%
60%
9%
15%
52%
African
American
41%
White
Household trends are shifting nationally and in Portsmouth.

Married or Single-Parent households were the dominant family type (60-75% of households) in the U.S. since WWII
67% of Portsmouth's housing stock is single-family detached

Recent trends are shifting away from this and traditional families now make up closer to 25 %

Housing demand for low maintenance, amenity adjacent spaces are on the rise for young singles and older empty nesters who will make up an increasingly larger portion of households.

Housing Affordability Index HOUSING VIRGINIA
While the city's housing is relatively affordable, there are a significant number of households overly burdened by housing costs.
Portsmouth, Virginia celebrated its 250th birthday in 2002
Portsmouth residents are less likely to have a high school degree or advanced post secondary degrees than the regional population.
Profile of Workforce and Wages
Workers commuting into Portsmouth tend to have significantly higher incomes than workers living in Portsmouth, suggesting that many well-paid workers are opting to drive farther in order to live in a different
locality.

-Demographic Study 2015
Health & Safety Services
Education, Information & Cultural Services
Recreation & Leisure Services
The buildings and urban environments we have built to provide utility and express our creativity over time.

This is where we live and work. Our built environment has a character and quality that contributes to our neighborhood and City identity.
1752
1763
1784
1894
1909
1919
1919
1948
1948
1960
1960
1968
Portsmouth Colored Community Library & Museum
This does not include water areas
Predominately Single-Family Residential
Significantly influenced by Craney Island
3,452 AC-19% of Land Area
Let's take a look at how the city grew and eras of annexation.
Transit in the city is primarily by bus-Run by HRT
The city currently has
seven routes.
A ferry is available between Portsmouth and Norfolk
The city has many neighborhoods and districts with sidewalks, but some do not have them

There currently are no
officially
designated bike routes
shared lane or off road


The South Hampton
Roads Trail is slated to be
completed in the next
18 months

It will not improve access for the majority of Portsmouth neighborhoods but will provide some regional access
Downtown is very walkable, however most of the city's neighborhoods are car dependent, and some have a zero walk score because of separation from retail or transit
Regional Projects
The Elizabeth River Tunnels Project

MLK Extension and connection between Midtown and Downtown Tunnels Open Nov 30, 2016
Addition of a new two lane tunnel adjacent to the Midtown Tunnel

Hampton Roads Third Crossing
Commonwealth Transportation Board Approves Location for Hampton Roads Crossing Expansion

On December 7, 2016, the Commonwealth Transportation Board (CTB) approved an improvement to to ease congestion and improve travel on the I-64 Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel.

The project will widen about 12 miles of I-64 to a consistent six-lane facility from I-664 in Hampton to I-564 in Norfolk.

The alternative includes a new parallel bridge tunnel. Alternative A is in the Hampton Roads Crossing Study Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (SEIS).
Community and Social Findings
There are unique social needs and strengths among the communities in Portsmouth.
The city has a history of strong, cohesive neighborhoods, and many residents cite the friendly hometown feel as something they love about living here.
This strength arises from a long tenure of residents, and a significant history of faith based communities working to support the people of Portsmouth.
As home to a significant number of lower income households, the city has many pressing social issues.
Physical and Environmental Findings
Recurrent flooding, higher tides, and higher storm surges
Flat or declining revenue with limited land available for growth, and 42% of land off the tax roll
Old city with historic bones, architecture and infrastructure-which needs replacement
Geography of the region creates mobility and connectivity challenges, but Portsmouth is centrally located with great access to the water and adjacent communities.
City's housing stock (63% Single Family) is no longer on point with market demands for housing, which is diversifying as household types change.
City Identity
Portsmouth is a mature community tied to the water that surrounds it
There are cohesive neighborhoods from various eras reflecting different architectural and cultural references
The people who live here like their neighborhoods and neighbors
It is suburban and urban
It is a small land area without room for outward growth in a large expanding region
Vacant and underutilized land can be both a challenge for identity and an opportunity for development
Lack of connectivity for bikes and pedestrians creates heavy reliance on automobiles, creating congestion and time delays
Older housing stock that isn't as appealing in the modern market
Emerging urban market for more rental housing for non-traditional households which are more dominant in projected population composition
Regional Influences
TransAtlantic Fiber Optic offers exciting economic opportunities to the region
Transportation projects important to the region are important to Portsmouth (Elizabeth River Tunnels, Transit, Third Crossing, South Hampton Trail, etc. )
Portsmouth is an important employer in the region with more jobs than workers in the city
Along with Norfolk, Portsmouth serves as the urban core of the region
Regionalisim is a national trend that allows multiple communities to leverage collective resources for the benefits of the region (allowing them to do more with less)
Hampton Roads Regional Benchmarking Study
11th Edition
Development Pattern
Based on the Portsmouth Demographic Study:
See:
http://www.portsmouthva.gov/DocumentCenter/View/751
Portsmouth should encourage "more multifamily development and denser single-family development around the city's historic core..."
"Another notable sign... is that Portsmouth's rental units are newer on average than its owner-occupied units. This is in contrast to most cities and Hampton Roads at large... This suggests (along with migration and household data) that there is a higher demand currently for quality rental housing than conventional homes."
What percent of a typical household's income is needed to afford a typical home?
Portsmouth Demographic Study
Hampton Roads Planning Commission Data
Portsmouth is a job center: Although much commuting goes on within the Hampton Roads region, and Portsmouth does not have the largest number of in-commuters, it still functions as a Job Center because it has more jobs than workforce-residents. It is not without employment.
Net jobs: 10,937
*Although no studies have been done since the new Midtown Tunnel tubes opened, anecdotally there is less congestion.
Portsmouth Demographic Study
mid-day traffic
Full transcript