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The Triple Crisis

Humanity is facing a triple crisis that defines the new future

Enviro ChangeMakers

on 20 September 2017

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Transcript of The Triple Crisis

The Triple Crisis
Energy Descent
David Holmgren, co-founder of the Permaculture Movement
more info http://www.futurescenarios.org/
Peak Oil
The Economy
Infinite growth is impossible
on a finite planet.
Global Warming
The Great Turning
paths forward
learn more at Global Footprint Network http://www.footprintnetwork.org/
more at www.co2.earth
storms / sea level rise
Humanity is facing a "triple crisis" that defines the new future.
a.k.a. "Peak Everything"
Oil is not the only resource for which
we are hitting "peak."

If everyone on the planet tried
to live like we do in the U.S.,
it would take 4-5 PLANETS
to provide the resources for it all.
FIVE planets worth of consumption ...
SIX planets worth of consumption ...
SEVEN planets worth of consumption ...
more info: Joanne Poyourow "What Everyone Ought To Know About Today's Economy"
It's got to be a
from 5-planets-worth-of-consumption, to something much more in line with 1
A sense of scale:
We are currently experiencing the third great Revolution in the history of mankind.
learn more: Joanna Macy 'www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwlXTAT8rLk
learn more: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2013-12-09/powerdown-let-s-talk-about-it
What is
1. able to be maintained at a certain rate or level.
2. able to be upheld or defended.
How to create change
"sustainable solutions"
today 405
Peak oil
350ppm = the target
must quit burning fossil fuels
EIGHT planets worth of consumption ...
NINE planets worth of consumption ...
David Holmgren, co-founder of the Permaculture Movement
learn more at http://permacultureprinciples.com/
Permanent + Culture = Permaculture
a.k.a. "radical climate disruption"
You are here-->
LINGO banner painted by youth for Rio+20
Charles Hall, Jessica Lambert, SUNY (State University of New York) http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513003856
Energy Returned on Energy Invested (EROI)
Do The Math

early 1900's 100:1
today 19:1
If our goal is to keep the Earth’s temperature from rising more than two degrees Celsius —
the upper limit identified by the nations of the world —

how much more new digging and drilling can we do?

Here’s the answer:
Bill McKibben, Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College, Vermont
-- Bill McKibben, Distinguished Scholar at Middlebury College, Vermont
NASA.gov video youtu.be/gGOzHVUQCw0 ...
Global Temperatures
"Recalculating Climate Math," New Republic, Sept 2016
Joanna Macy, eco-philosopher
ASPO & Cornell University
Allmendinger, R W. “Peak Oil?” Cornell University Energy Studies in the College of Engineering, Cornell University Department of Earth & Atmospheric Sciences , 2007, www.geo.cornell.edu/eas/energy/the_challenges/peak_oil.html. Accessed 18 Sept. 2017.
CO2earth.com, Atmospheric CO2, https://www.co2.earth/
Global Footprint Network, "Ecological Footprint - nations" webpage, http://www.footprintnetwork.org/content/ecological_footprint_nations/
Evershed, Nick, "Carbon Countdown Clock," The Guardian, January 2017 https://www.theguardian.com/environment/datablog/2017/jan/19/carbon-countdown-clock-how-much-of-the-worlds-carbon-budget-have-we-spent
Hall, Charles, Jessica Lambert and Stephen Balogh, EROI of different fuels and the implications for society, Energy Policy, Volume 64, January 2014, Pages 141-152 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.05.049 (http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421513003856#bib45)
Heinberg, Richard, Peak Everything, 2010
Holmgren, David (co-founder of Permaculture Movement), "Future Scenarios" webpage, http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/12/26/index.html
NASA.gov, "Earth's Long-Term Warming Trend" video http://www.footprintnetwork.org/content/ecological_footprint_nations/
Macy, Joanna (eco-philosopher), "Joanna Macy on the Great Turning" talk, 2007 www.youtube.com/watch?v=LwlXTAT8rLk
McKibben, Bill (Middlebury College), "Bill McKibben Does the Math" video, 2013, youtube.com/watch?v=5KtGg-Lvxso
McKibben, Bill, "Recalculating the Climate Math," New Republic, Sept 2016, https://newrepublic.com/article/136987/recalculating-climate-math
Carbon Countdown Clock
Full transcript