Neo- and anti-malthusian theories
Resource Consumption
Evidence for the anti-malthusian policies
Evidence against neo Malthusian theories
Similarities
- Both theories agree that a rise in population will increase the demand for food.
- They are both based on specific parts of the world, they cant be applied on a global scale.
- Production per capita increased eightfold between 1800 and 2000.
- China will lift 200 million individuals out of poverty.
- Percentage of undernourished people has dropped from 50% ( 1950) to 16% today.
- Life expectancy increased from 52 in 1960 to 69 today.
- future predictions: humans will become 14 times richer, everyone will have access to food, water and sanitation.
- The period of rapid population growth has seen the greatest increase in life spans and living standards.
- Food shortages have been caused by political problems ( e.g in Ethiopa- marxism)
- If supplies are limited, why are the getting cheaper?
- Tokyo and Manhattan are most densely populated but have the greatest concentration of wealth.
Evidence for neo Malthusian theories
- Increasing population in Africa and Asia: increased pressure on resources.
- e.g Burundi: Very high population growth resulting in a high GHI.
- 1990: 33.8
- 2013:38.8
- Japan: population growth is -0.2%( since 2012)- very developed
Conclusion
- Both theories are very extreme
- Both have aspects that apply
- Humans are capable of advancement and adaption.
- Limits may exist
Julian Simons theory
- More technology makes more resources available.
- Supplies may be physically limited but economically indefinite.
- resources are recycled
- new alternatives are developed by the market.
Anti-malthusian theories
Esther Boserup (1965)
- People have the resources to increase food production, using knowledge and technology.
- Population growth leads to agricultural development.
- Population has the ability to adopt to the changes in population.
Paul Ehrlich´s theory (1968)
- Humans will face mass poverty, famine, starvation, death
- The Earth has reached its carrying capacity
- Only 10% chance of avoiding a collapse of global civilisation
- " everybody can lead a decent life without everybody being fair."
Limitations to Malthus Theory
- Did not predict farming changes ( agricultural revolution occured after 1798)
- Did not take into account the demographic transition model
- Does not consider technological advancement
Neo malthusian theories
Thomas Malthus´s theory ( 1798)
- There is a finite optimum population size in relation to food supply
- Consequences of population growth: decline in the standard of living, war,disease, famine.
- Human population grows exponentially
- Food supplied increase arithmetically
Population Growth