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Neo- and anti-malthusian theories

Resource Consumption

Evidence for the anti-malthusian policies

Evidence against neo Malthusian theories

Similarities

  • Both theories agree that a rise in population will increase the demand for food.
  • They are both based on specific parts of the world, they cant be applied on a global scale.
  • Production per capita increased eightfold between 1800 and 2000.
  • China will lift 200 million individuals out of poverty.
  • Percentage of undernourished people has dropped from 50% ( 1950) to 16% today.
  • Life expectancy increased from 52 in 1960 to 69 today.
  • future predictions: humans will become 14 times richer, everyone will have access to food, water and sanitation.
  • The period of rapid population growth has seen the greatest increase in life spans and living standards.
  • Food shortages have been caused by political problems ( e.g in Ethiopa- marxism)
  • If supplies are limited, why are the getting cheaper?
  • Tokyo and Manhattan are most densely populated but have the greatest concentration of wealth.

Evidence for neo Malthusian theories

  • Increasing population in Africa and Asia: increased pressure on resources.
  • e.g Burundi: Very high population growth resulting in a high GHI.
  • 1990: 33.8
  • 2013:38.8
  • Japan: population growth is -0.2%( since 2012)- very developed

Conclusion

  • Both theories are very extreme
  • Both have aspects that apply
  • Humans are capable of advancement and adaption.
  • Limits may exist

Julian Simons theory

  • More technology makes more resources available.
  • Supplies may be physically limited but economically indefinite.
  • resources are recycled
  • new alternatives are developed by the market.

Anti-malthusian theories

Esther Boserup (1965)

  • People have the resources to increase food production, using knowledge and technology.
  • Population growth leads to agricultural development.
  • Population has the ability to adopt to the changes in population.

Paul Ehrlich´s theory (1968)

  • Humans will face mass poverty, famine, starvation, death
  • The Earth has reached its carrying capacity
  • Only 10% chance of avoiding a collapse of global civilisation
  • " everybody can lead a decent life without everybody being fair."

Anti malthusian

Limitations to Malthus Theory

  • Did not predict farming changes ( agricultural revolution occured after 1798)
  • Did not take into account the demographic transition model
  • Does not consider technological advancement

Neo malthusian theories

Thomas Malthus´s theory ( 1798)

  • There is a finite optimum population size in relation to food supply
  • Consequences of population growth: decline in the standard of living, war,disease, famine.
  • Human population grows exponentially
  • Food supplied increase arithmetically

Population Growth

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