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Lesing 3/Lecture 3

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Derica Lambrechts

on 18 September 2016

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Transcript of Lesing 3/Lecture 3

Lesing 3/Lecture 3
Control Risks
Fat Tails
Fat Tails
“…events that appear highly unlikely to occur but that are earth-moving when they do. This is what I refer to as a fat tail…these kinds of events occur more often than we think…risk managers too often fail to include these kinds of events in their risk models. In some cases, the risk is considered too unlikely to occur to devote substantial time and money to studying it. In others, there’s simply a fatalistic attitude toward catastrophe…”

Fat Tails
The Framework/Model/Matrix
Tool to evaluate risk/Evalueer Risiko
Model: Simplification of reality/Model: Eenvoudige voorstelling van die realiteit
Model: not only a way to identify political risk, but also how to manage the risks/Model: Nie net ‘n manier om risiko te identifiseer nie, maar ook om risiko te bestuur
MNC used to take suggestions from commercial banks for political risk assessment/Korporasies gewoond daaraan om te kyk na banke of risiko te asseseer
Commercial banks – generate overall country risk indexes/Banke gee ‘n oorsig van risiko in ‘n algemene risiko indeks
Can identify macro political risk, but not micro (industry specific political risk)/ Dit kan makro risiko identifiseer, maar nie mikro (industrie spesifiek)

The Nature of Micro Risks/Die Kentekens van Mikro Risiko
Full transcript